Trump lead narrows on Ron DeSantis? New poll says so: According to a new poll YouGov/Economist poll, Trump leads Ron DeSantis 49 percent to 20 percent
Ron DeSantis Way Behind…
Donald Trump has led the Republican nomination contest for president for most of the year, but one recent poll shows that his lead isn’t quite as dominant as it once looked.
According to Newsweek, the latest July YouGov/Economist poll has Trump with 49 percent support among Republicans, ahead of 20 percent for Ron DeSantis. While still a big lead, that’s smaller than most recent polls have shown. The June version of the poll had Trump winning 51 percent to 20 percent.
Former vice President Mike Pence has 6 percent of the vote, followed by Nikki Haley and Tim Scott with 3 percent each, with Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy each pulling 2 percent. “Not sure” pulled 10 percent of the vote, while several candidates were listed at zero percent.
Also, in the poll, when voters were asked if they think President Biden should run again, just 22 percent answered yes, and 62 percent said no. In the case of whether Trump should run again, 29 percent said yes and 59 percent no.
As for the general election, should it come between Biden and Trump again, Trump has 40 percent of the vote, followed by Biden with 39 percent. “I would not vote” came in third with 11 percent, with “other” getting 7 percent and “not sure” 4 percent.
And when asked, separately, who they think will win, Trump had 40 percent and Biden 38 percent, while 22 percent answered “not sure.”
The Real Clear Politics poll average has Biden winning by 0.2 percent, although the last seven polls have had either Biden winning, or the race tied.
So we have a situation where big majorities of voters do not want a Biden-Trump rematch, but that remains the most likely scenario.
Will there be a third-party candidate? FiveThirtyEight this week looked at that possibility.
“Faced with the prospect of a rematch between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, at least two alternatives have already emerged: The bipartisan No Labels organization is working toward fielding a centrist presidential ticket, while Cornel West, a well-known public intellectual and political progressive, has launched a bid for the Green Party’s nomination,” the site said.
West doesn’t appear to have much traction, while the No Labels effort doesn’t even have a candidate attached yet, although figures such as Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan have been mentioned as possible candidates. But there is some worry on the Democratic side that a third-party candidate could siphon votes from their candidate.
Some recent polls, in fact, have shown the overall vote going a couple of points in the Republicans’ direction, in surveys in which West, Manchin and Hogan are included, as opposed to when they’re not included.
“Initial evidence suggests that in a rematch between Biden and Trump, a No Labels and/or West campaign could pull marginal support from Biden and subtly shift the election toward Trump. Whether this would actually make for a potential spoiler, though, is a different question: History — and common sense — suggest that these possible third-party candidates would be most likely to affect the outcome if the overall race were close. But in our deeply divided political era, close elections have been the norm, which makes a spoiler candidacy a live possibility,” FiveThirtyEight said.
Some have been involved with No Labels, in fact, have backed off their previous support, for the specific reason, that a centrist effort in 2024 could have the effect of helping Trump.
“What is a spoiler?” Ryan Clancy of No Labels told FiveThirtyEight. “One, it’s a candidate who isn’t going to win. Two, it’s a candidate whose votes would come almost entirely from one side.”
Expertise and Experience
Stephen Silver is a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive. He is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.