Doug Sosnik, known for his insightful political memos, has a new take on the upcoming 2024 presidential election that he has just shared.
The race is likely to be unique because metrics typically used to forecast the outcome, are not likely to be as predictive as in past elections. What metrics? Presidential job approval, national polls, and right track/wrong track numbers.
As Sosnik pointed out, in 2016 “national polls demonstrated their limitations when they predicted Hillary Clinton would win the presidential election due to her strong lead in the popular vote.” Similarly, Democrats showed, in thwarting the expected GOP wave during last year’s midterms, “the shortcomings of relying on proxies for voter sentiment like the mood of the country and the President’s job approval.” Each metrics were brutal, indicating that the Democrats were going to get lambasted.
2024 Election: Focus on the Swing States
So, if the traditionally predictive metrics no longer hold predictive power, what should we consult?
Sosnik recommends keeping a close eye on the data from the eight key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Sosnik points out that one common feature in each swing state is that their populations are in the “middle,” with respect to educational attainment, meaning the populations are “neither extremely high nor extremely low.” And educational attainment is perhaps the single most important demographic characteristic when predicting which Party a citizen is going to back.
Who Will Decide the Swing States?
Sosnik believes that four different categories of voters will decides the swing states, which will in turn decide the entire election.
The first group is what Sosnik dubbed the “double doubters,” people who dislike both Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The double doubters “are perhaps the most important group of swing voters in the upcoming election.” The double doubters are a sizeable voting bloc; an ABS/Ipsos poll showed that a majority of the country disliked both Biden and Trump. So, keep an eye on which way this group trends.
Second, is abortion rights voters. Abortion has always been capable of driving single-issue voters, but in light of last year’s Dobbs decision rescinding Roe, abortion is especially relevant. And here’s a notable trend: a June Gallup poll found that 69 percent of respondents believes that abortion should be legal in the firs three months of pregnancy – a fact Republicans will want to account for as they message for 2024.
Third, Republicans. “The results from the 2022 midterms, as well as recent polling, suggest that a group of Republican voters will be up for grabs in 2024, particularly if Trump is on the ballot.” Why? One-quarter of Republican voters don’t like Trump.
Fourth, as always, Independents. “The winning party in the last four election cycles carried political independents. The 2022 exit polls showed that over 30 percent of voters were independents, the highest percentage since 1980.”
Wild Card?
Sosnik believes the wild card in the 2024 election could be a third-party candidate. Sometimes third-party candidates are used as a scapegoat for parties when the election doesn’t go the way that they planned. Did Ross Perot really lose the 1992 election for George H.W. Bush? Did Gary Johnson really lose the 2016 election for Hillary Clinton? Regardless, Sosnik believes a third-party candidate could be trouble for Biden – and unfortunately for Biden, Cornel West is gearing up to earn the Green Party’s nomination.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor and opinion writer at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
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