The Ukrainian counteroffensive is nearing its third month, but extensive Russian fortifications continue to hold.
There is heavy fighting in the Donbas region and Southern Ukraine as both militaries exchange blows. Casualties continue to mount.
The Ukrainian military has achieved its most significant gains in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast in Southern Ukraine, but the operational picture is far from good for Kyiv.
Ukraine War: Fighting in Zaporizhzhia
Since the start of the counteroffensive, the Ukrainian military has probed the extensive Russian defensive lines in several different places to find weak spots. It has achieved significant progress in the direction of Orikhiv.
“Russian forces appear to be concentrating their limited available reinforcements from elsewhere in the theater in the Orikhiv direction in western Zaporizhia Oblast,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational report on the war.
Were Ukrainian forces to advance further in the sector, they would still have to overcome at least two more layers of defenses in order to achieve an operational breakthrough. That is not an easy feat.
The Russian military is in short supply of mobile reserves. As a result, it has to rely on a few trusted units to act as firefighters in the most dangerous sectors of the contact line. How long the Kremlin can do this before it runs out of reserves remains to be seen.
Russian Casualties
Another day of fighting, another day of casualties for the Russian forces. On day 546 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian military and pro-Russian separatist forces lost almost 500 men killed, wounded, or captured.
As we have covered before, the Russian military is fighting a skillful defense, but at the heavy cost of tens of thousands of casualties every month. Indeed, from a rough calculation of daily casualty averages since the Ukrainian counteroffensive began on June 4, Russian forces are losing close to 20,000 men a month.
In June and July, the Kremlin lost almost the same number of troops (20,000). Close to 40,000 losses in two months of defensive combat is an extremely high rate for a military to sustain over the long term and still remain an effective fighting force.
The worst thing for Moscow is the looming danger of a Ukrainian operational breakthrough. If Kyiv’s forces breach Russian defenses, it is likely that Russian fortifications will collapse and casualties will skyrocket.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Wednesday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 258,820 Russian troops. They also claim they have destroyed 322 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets; 316 attack and transport helicopters; 4,373 tanks; 5,318 artillery pieces; 8,488 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles; 722 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems; 18 boats and cutters; 7,745 vehicles and fuel tanks; 491 anti-aircraft batteries; 4,324 tactical unmanned aerial systems; 800 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems; and 1,406 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
T-80 Tank Destroyed in Ukraine
A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University, an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and is pursuing a J.D. at Boston College Law School. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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