Stunning Fighter Breakthrough: China’s New Tailless J-36 Better Than F-47?

Key Points and Summary: This analysis refutes claims, amplified by Chinese state media after revealing J-36/J-50 prototypes, that China leads the US by a decade in sixth-generation fighter development.

-It argues the US Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, which recently selected Boeing’s F-47, is significantly more mature, having secretly flown full-scale demonstrators since 2020. China’s prototypes are likely early-stage testbeds, not production-ready aircraft.

Lockheed Martin NGAD Fighter. Image Credit: Lockheed Martin.

-While China showcases its progress, the US maintains secrecy to protect advanced technologies like those integrated into the F-47 “system of systems” concept involving drone wingmen, hypersonic weapons, and advanced networking.

J-36 Beats F-47?

In December of last year, China unveiled two new stealth aircraft to the world through what appeared to be a carefully staged series of test flights. The two aircraft shared some stealthy design characteristics. They were tailless, leading many to conclude that China had developed two sixth-generation fighters and was far ahead of the US in 6th-generation fighter design.

Curiously, neither the Chinese government nor the military mentioned the aircraft or the flights. Like the Russians, the Chinese are notorious for vastly overstating their aircraft’s capabilities. 

Many also jumped forward with the hypothesis that these aircraft may already be in production. However, it was clear that these two aircraft were either making their first test flights or among the first. The reaction around the world was just what China wanted.

China Claims to Be 10 Years Ahead of the US

The China Academy, a Chinese government-run publication, made that outrageous claim on December 30. They sourced a picture and ran with it, in the communist math principle where 1+1 = 7. 

“Notably, photos taken in Sichuan Province indicate that China’s new aircraft are already marked with serial numbers. According to Chinese military regulations, only equipment that has been formally delivered to combat units is allowed to have serial numbers. This could suggest that China’s 6th-generation fighter has already entered mass production and may even be combat-ready.

“The New York Post, on the other hand, pointed out that the US military has yet to deploy a 6th-generation fighter. This implies that the US Air Force is lagging behind China by as much as a decade. The US Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, which aims to develop a 6th-generation fighter, was proposed back in 2014. However, as of now, there isn’t even a prototype capable of public flight demonstrations.

This has left many Chinese netizens puzzled, given that China’s military budget for 2023 was around $210 billion, while the US Military budget is a staggering $916 billion—four times that of China. Why is US Military technology falling behind China?”

J-35A Fighter from China. Image Credit: Chinese Military

Of course, we all know that much of this is false. And then there is this from another publication.

“The J-36 and J-XX are tailless sixth-generation fighter jets. By revealing their prototypes, China signaled that it has surpassed both US and Russian technologies by integrating AI, improved stealth, ‘hypersonic speeds, and advanced weaponry.’ Not only do the two sixth-generation fighter aircraft have power generation capabilities that hover around the 1 MW mark, but also their integrated networked system could change the power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific.

“China’s unveiling of the sixth-generation fighters, along with its recent advances in AI, semiconductors, and 6th-generation, sends a clear message to other powers. The coming decade is likely to see a dramatic realignment of military power in Asia, with China at the top of the fighter aircraft pecking order,” writes The Diplomat.

Not So Fast And Don’t Break a Leg Jumping To Conclusions

As for the claim that there isn’t even a prototype for public flight demonstrations, the US has been secretly flying Lockheed Martin and Boeing’s F-47 stealth fighter prototypes for years in a California location.

“We’ve already built and flown a full-scale flight demonstrator in the real world, and we broke records in doing it,” Will Roper told Defense News in an exclusive interview ahead of the Air Force Association’s Air, Space, and Cyber Conference in 2020. “We are ready to go and build the next-generation aircraft in a way that has never happened before.”

Hints about the NGAD program had been spread for years, but they abruptly stopped after Putin announced the development of new hypersonic missiles. 

One of the reasons the Air Force has kept such a tight lid on the F-47 is because of what else is involved in the program.

The F-47 is considered a “family of, or system of systems.” It will likely be able to fire hypersonic missiles, and its engines will be powerful enough for at least Mach 2 or even Mach 3 speeds. It can be a drone mothership that could handle operating Collaborative Combat Aircraft drones that can fly out ahead and collect reconnaissance data, conduct electronic warfare, and protect the NGAD with early warning ability.

The US Air Force’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program is a multi-pronged initiative to test, develop, and implement new autonomous and manned-unmanned aircraft teaming concepts. This concept, also known as the Loyal Wingman concept, is capable of flying independently or in small groups and will be used to counter China’s anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities.

The US has been testing various drones that could be involved in the CCA program for years. 

Finally, our friend Alex Hollings summed it up best. “Ultimately, there’s no way for us to know by looking at China’s aircraft in testing if they’ve managed to bridge the tech divide in terms of avionics, long-range kill webs, and most importantly, in the functionality of AI-powered wingmen meant to fly alongside these crewed aircraft. 

‘But even if we give China the benefit of every doubt and assume its hardware and software is every bit as capable as the systems found in America’s top-tier fighters, that would still place China roughly four years behind America’s 6th gen fighter efforts in the best of circumstances.”

And this was before the F-47 was announced.

About the Author: 

Steve Balestrieri is a 19FortyFive National Security Columnist. He served as a UUSArmy Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing for 19FortyFive, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.