Joe Biden Could Lose Next Year’s Election – Americans are not overly thrilled by the prospect of an electoral rematch of 2020; however, the polls are looking less favorable for President Joe Biden than they are for Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, leaving Democrats with a cause for concern.
Both men are performing well among voters in their own party, with Biden and Trump backed by 94% and 92% of Democrats and Republicans respectively. Of course, both must secure their parties’ nomination next year – a likely scenario given that both are the number one choice for more than half of their own party voters.
The battle for the White House is therefore likely to rely on the independents – swing voters with no allegiance to either the Democrats or the GOP – and that could be troubling for Biden.
Joe Biden’s Approval Rating Remains Low
A majority of Americans have disapproved of the President since the embarrassing withdrawal from Kabul two years ago.
While not at an all-time low – Biden saw approval ratings drop to 37.6% on average in July 2022 – the 80-year-old has remained unpopular with most Americans with his approval rating now sitting at 41%. His April 25 campaign launch failed to boost support, with no more than 42% of Americans approving of his presidency in the three months since.
A slight relief for the Democrats is that Biden’s likely rival, Trump, is hardly taking support away from him. The former president’s favorability ratings lie just below 40%, so it’s perhaps no surprise that the two are neck-and-neck in polls concerning a hypothetical presidential election.
The Importance Of Independents
Swing voters are crucial to winning a presidential election in a two-party democracy, particularly when party supporters remain so loyal to their candidates.
The bad news for Biden emerges when his approval ratings among independents are considered. Over the past two weeks, four polls have indicated approval from around a third of independents, with a recent YouGov/Economist poll suggesting his only 27% of swing voters had faith in his presidency.
While Trump was hardly overwhelmingly popular with independents at the same stage in his first term, swing voters were at least slightly more optimistic with his approval among said group hovering around the high-30s to low-40s.
It was Biden’s popularity among independents which ultimately won him the presidency in 2020, and something which cost Hillary Clinton her chance at the highest office in the land. Independents were split on their preferred candidate in 2016, with Trump edging his Democratic rival by 43-42%. In contrast, support among swing voters for Biden was 10 points higher than his predecessor, and ultimately proved pivotal in securing the White House.
That said, if Biden is unable to resonate with independents, key voters could look elsewhere for third-party candidates and potentially mark the end of his presidency next year.
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist based in Canada. He has written for the Western Standard, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo, and has covered notable events including the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee.
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