I remember, back in the summer and fall of 2016, feeling anxious about the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency.
I wondered if such a thing was plausible.
To get a sense for where things stood, I adopted the habit of consulting polls – especially FiveThirtyEight’s election tracker.
According to FiveThirtyEight, which I checked the day of the election, Donald Trump had just about a 20 percent shot at winning the election.
Obviously, Donald Trump did win the election – which, in effect, offered an important lesson to me and to anyone else paying attention: the polls, the stats, and the pundits are not clairvoyant.
Nothing is fully predictable.
Now, FiveThirtyEight is offering just that advice in reviewing the GOP primary numbers. Namely, that despite Trump’s dominant lead, nothing is fully predictable.
Here’s what FiveThirtyEight had to say about Trump’s dominant margins:
“[O]ur study of the history of primary polling suggests that it’s still too early to completely write off Trump’s competitors. Here at FiveThirtyEight, we are big believers in the predictive power of early election polling – where it is warranted. While we have found that early national polls tend to predict who will win primaries relatively well, there is a ton of volatility that prevents us from providing the type of clarity analysts want from forecasts.”
Donald Trump has a massive advantage
I appreciate FiveThirtyEight’s caution.
A presidential primary is a volatile process with a million variables.
That being said, Trump is way out in front.
Let’s look at the most recent numbers. Trump is dominating in Iowa (with 42 percent relative to Ron DeSantis’s 19 percent and Senator Tim Scott’s 9 percent). Trump is also dominating in New Hampshire (with 50 percent relative to DeSantis’s 11 percent and Vivek Ramaswamy’s 10 percent).
The numbers are similar in South Carolina, where Trump leads with 48 percent relative to DeSantis and Scott with 14 percent (note: Scott is from South Carolina). At the national level Trump enjoys a similarly cushy lead; 50 percent of GOP voters favor Trump.
So, while Trump enjoys a dominant lead over his competitors, it’s still early in the race. Can Trump hold the lead and secure his third consecutive GOP nomination?
Perhaps.
FiveThirtyEight suggests that Trump’s lead is durable.
“Trump’s lead is not only large; it’s also been extremely durable. This year he has faced several scandals that we would expect to hurt his polling numbers. Yet, at least in the horse race, he has weathered the storm extremely well. After each of the four indictments handed down against him this year, Trump’s support in national polls has remained flat or even increased. All the while, his main opponent, DeSantis, has steadily lost ground.”
If history is an indication, Donald Trump will likely win the nomination.
According to FiveThirtyEight, “a generic presidential candidate polling at Trump’s level today would have about a 78 percent chance of winning their party’s nomination.”
Obviously, 78 percent is no guarantee – that’s about what FiveThirtyEight said were Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the 2016 election. So, take Trump’s polling numbers with a grain of salt on principle. But similarly, don’t expect DeSantis or Pence or Ramaswamy to pull ahead of Trump late. Trump has been the figurehead of the GOP, irrefutably, for almost a decade. Nothing suggests that will change in the next several months.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor and opinion writer at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
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