Nearly one-third of Americans polled in a recent Politico Magazine/Ipsos survey found that if former President Donald Trump were convicted in the federal grand jury investigation into the forty-fifth president’s alleged role in the January 6 riot, they would not vote for the former president in 2024.
Of course, the Trump Campaign counters with the fact that every indictment the former president receives, his poll numbers in the GOP Primary race go higher.
But a General Election is different from a political party’s primary.
The Trump Campaign has clearly taken the approach that publicizing the indictments and turning them into merchandisable moments could both propel them to the GOP nomination and lessen the sting of the indictments.
Yet, an indictment is not a laughing matter for most Americans. Four indictments to many Americans are catastrophic events. Trump says that they’re indicting him to destroy you and me.
Maybe there’s some truth to this. But do most Americans view Trump as their heroic tribune?
Outside of the “MAGA” coalition of the Republican Party, the data is clear that Trump is not viewed as a savior figure. And if the numbers in the Politico poll are accurate, then, an indictment could militate fence-sitting independents in a General Election against Trump for the same reasons that the indictments galvanized Republican Party voters behind the Trump Campaign in the Primary.
It’s Always Darkest Before It’s Completely Black
What’s more, the Politico poll makes clear that Trump’s perception among most voters could worsen.
After all, the legal cases against Trump are just getting started. Once the trials against Trump begin, more damaging information could reach the public, thereby tarnishing Trump’s image as some kind of victim of the dreaded establishment.
Most people can clearly see that the Administrative State is against Trump—and has been since the start of his political career. That doesn’t mean that the former president is totally innocent in all this. And it doesn’t negate the fact that most Americans are turned off by the stench of corruption that four major indictments represent.
There’s also the GOP Primary to consider.
Sure, Trump’s numbers have gone up with each indictment. But for how long can Trump ride this wave in the primary?
There are already signs that Trump’s support in the early battleground state of Iowa, where voting in the GOP Primary is set to occur in mid-January 2024, is softening.
Beyond that, Trump’s refusal to attend the first Fox News debate is harming him. By not being on stage, the other candidates were able to enjoy increases in their support because they got their messages out free of Trump distortions.
This is especially true of Trump’s only major rival in the Primary, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. After the debate, DeSantis’ polling numbers exploded, and he enjoyed a massive infusion of donations for his campaign.
Where is That Money Going?
Which gets us to another issue plaguing the Trump Campaign: most of the money that Trump has garnered for his incipient presidential bid in 2024 has gone not to his campaign but to his massive—and growing—legal fees. Trump is the clear frontrunner in the GOP. He’s gathered a good deal of money.
Yet, he was out-earned by the Biden Campaign in the last quarter (Trump drew in $38 million in campaign donations whereas Biden gained $72 million). Biden’s campaign has yet to spend the money it has earned while Trump is blowing through his money on lawyers to fight his various indictments.
Meanwhile, both Ron DeSantis and the other major rival to Trump’s nomination as the GOP presidential candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, are increasing their campaign donations, moving up in the polls, and spending the money exclusively on campaign related events.
For Ramaswamy, he’s decided to manipulate the “MAGA” crowd into thinking that he’s a fellow traveler. In fact, Ramaswamy will have to do as DeSantis did: separate himself from Trump by attacking the former president on some key issues.
And, just as DeSantis experienced, once Ramaswamy does that, the love affair between the 38-year-old billionaire biotech entrepreneur and MAGA-world will end.
The GOP Has to Do Better Than This
Regardless of how the primary plays out, though, the Republican Party should be concerned about nominating Donald Trump again as their presidential nominee. Most of the money he receives for campaign donations will be used for his ongoing legal defense.
What’s more, Trump will continually be damaged as the GOP nominee by those legal cases and whatever revelations spill out from the judicial proceedings.
Republicans should do a better job of introspection and ask themselves in all seriousness if nominating Donald Trump is truly worth it?
We can all sympathize with the former president’s legal plight and hope that another Republican candidate would help him if they became president. But that does not mean we are required to nominate such a damaged and desperate candidate as our 2024 presidential nominee. We can—must—do better.
A 19FortyFive Senior Editor, Brandon J. Weichert is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, as well as at American Greatness and the Asia Times. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower (Republic Book Publishers), Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life (Encounter Books), and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy (July 23). Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
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