Why Impeaching Joe Biden Is Politically Crazy for the GOP – House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has come under intense pressure in recent weeks to impeach President Joe Biden in a move that is only illogical in terms of political strategy.
As the only candidate facing criminal charges, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has naturally been leading calls to impeach the President, statements which have been echoed by his supporters.
Trump remains the preferred candidate for more than half the party, according to the polls, implying that McCarthy faces a war on two fronts from within the GOP.
The calls relate to the President’s involvement in his son’s foreign business dealings while Biden was vice president. As the House Oversight Committee continues to uncover further damning evidence through witness testimonies and documentation, McCarthy has toyed with the idea of impeachment in a bid to appease right-wing Republicans.
However, impeachment
The Role Of The House
Were a formal impeachment to be launched, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives would first discuss the case before deciding whether to pass any charges up to the surface. Of the 435 voting members in the House, Republicans make up 222 of them. The remaining 212 are controlled by the Democrats, with that number likely to rise once the vacant Rhode Island seat has been filled in November.
With 218 seats required for a majority, the Democrats only need five Republicans to vote against their colleagues for impeachment proceedings to fall at the first hurdle. While such a scenario may seem inconceivable, it has happened before, particularly when a party is split into factions as the GOP are at the moment.
In 1867, overwhelming control of the House for the Republicans saw a split in the group. After failing on their first attempt, Radical Republicans convinced moderate politicians within their own party to join the faction the following year and impeach President Andrew Johnson, who was later acquitted by the Senate by a singular vote. More recently, enough Republicans opposed two of the four counts against Bill Clinton, subsequently halving the counts he faced in the Senate (where Clinton was acquitted comfortably).
18 Republicans currently hold seats where Biden beat Trump in 2020, some of which were by double digits, and so they are as unlikely to be pro-Trump as some of their colleagues if they are to seek their constituents’ vote in November next year. It’s likely McCarthy, an established politician who has been in the House since 2006, is aware of this. No matter, furious Republicans have the power to remove him as Speaker, a move which would all-but end his political career.
The Senate And A Lack Of Evidence
Assuming a successful House vote along party lines – something which also risks being seen as politically motivated among swing voters – the counts against Joe Biden will then go to the Senate.
A successful conviction requires two-thirds of the Senate to agree, a nigh impossible task given that the Democrats currently control it. Alas, the focus for GOP Senators, both current and prospective, is whether their support for impeachment will cost them their seat in 2024.
As things stand, the Democrats are unlikely to pick up many states next year. Joe Manchin’s Republican-leaning West Virginia is one such example, particularly as he toys with the idea of a presidential campaign, where the Democrats could lose out to the GOP. That said, swing voters will not be impressed by a politically motivated impeachment, and the Republicans may only hurt their chances of retaking the Senate by making such a move.
Ultimately, the evidence to convincingly impeach President Joe Biden just simply doesn’t exist, yet. Dinners with foreign oligarchs and calls over speakerphone are not enough for a slam dunk conviction, and only appear desperate to the impartial observer.
While it’s clear from Devon Archer’s testimony that Hunter used his father’s name for his own gain, the fact remains that it’s not the younger Biden facing impeachment. It’s the President, and in the absence of clear-cut evidence of major wrongdoing, impeachment will politically ruin any chances the GOP have of a successful electoral year.
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist based in Canada. He has written for the Western Standard, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo, and has covered notable events including the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee.
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