Does Mike Pence Have a Path to GOP Nomination? – It’s not often a former president and vice president run against each other for the party nomination.
In fact, a multiple-term president has not replaced his subordinate since Franklin D. Roosevelt replaced Henry Wallace with Harry Truman in 1944.
For Donald Trump, he will surely need a new running mate in 2024, with Mike Pence actively campaigning against him.
Pence was quick to distance himself from Trump in the aftermath of January 6, 2021, a stance that has remained ever since the attack on the Capitol.
In a political battle where personality is as important as policy, Pence 2024 makes logical sense for those who liked the previous administration’s policies but despised the man in charge of it.
That said, the former vice president is struggling in the polls, trailing his former superior by around 50 percentage points.
So, does Mike Pence have any chance of securing the presidential ticket next year?
It’s not over until it’s over
It’s important to remember that the Republican primaries are still six months away, and a lot can change in that time.
Pence, 64, is a younger candidate than both the 77-year-old Trump and the 80-year-old Democrat President Joe Biden.
For those seeking a younger candidate with a sense of familiarity, Pence seems like a logical choice having held a prominent political position in recent years.
Moreover, his track record may resonate with hardline Republicans opposed to gun control and abortion rights, having signed a bill restricting the latter as Governor of Indiana.
Announcing his campaign on June 7, 2023, Pence spoke optimistically in a fashion akin to Ronald Reagan.
Notably, Reagan’s popularity helped his party secure a third successive term in the White House, a feat which has not been repeated since.
The odds are against Mike Pence
Optimism is one thing. Reality is another.
For Mike Pence, he can’t help but notice the polls are strongly against him.
Trump remains the first choice among more than half of Republican voters; Pence, on the other hand, has support from around 5% of GOP voters, a figure that has only decreased since the start of the year.
A surprise result in the maiden primaries may build momentum for the former vice president, although runners-up rarely make the headlines in a political battle.
His references to Reagan may be viewed through rose-tinted glasses, but the reality is the GOP is a very different party to what it was 35 years ago.
Abortion rights among Republicans is also a divisive subject, with around two-fifths of Republicans opposed to an outright ban.
An anti-abortion agenda arguably cost the Republicans in the 2022 mid-terms with Democrats retaining control of the Senate.
As a result, in an election where party unity could prove pivotal, a candidate with a clear view on such a prominent issue may not be the best to ensure a Republican return to the White House in 2024.
For now, a Mike Pence presidency remains a possibility, although a sense of any certainty will arrive in six months’ time.
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist based in Canada. He has written for the Western Standard, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo, and has covered notable events including the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee.
From 19FortyFive
