Democrats were hoping to use criminal indictments against Donald Trump to knock him out of contention for the White House in 2024. It may not be turning out that way.
Two new polls conducted in the midst of the latest indictment in Georgia have the former president beating Joe Biden – a sign that the Democrats’ anti-Trump offensive may be backfiring.
Two Polls Among Many for Donald Trump
The first poll, conducted by the New York Post late last week, has Donald Trump up by three points over Biden, 44 percent to 41 percent, with 15 percent still undecided.
The second poll, conducted by the Emerson polling organization and released early this week, has Trump leading Biden by two points, 46 percent to 44 percent, with just 10 percent undecided.
The two polls are indicative of a slight shift toward Trump since a spate of polls conducted over a week ago that had Biden slightly leading the former president.
The Post poll, conducted by the Leger Corporation, was conducted among 1,800 respondents contacted at random – and strictly online. The Emerson poll was based on responses from 1,000 registered voters who were contracted by landline telephone or through Emerson’s in-house online voter panel.
Yet, results from the two polls were largely the same.
Hashing it Out
The New York Post poll found Trump beating Biden in most geographic areas, except for the West, where Biden leads 55 percent to 32 percent. The West includes California, Oregon, Nevada, and Colorado – states that traditionally vote Democratic.
But in a major warning sign for Biden, Trump appears to have a huge advantage in the Midwest (50 percent to 34 percent), which is home to key “swing” states (including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa), which Biden carried in 2020, helping him defeat the former president.
Another warning sign for Biden is the “gender gap,” which appears to favor Trump. While women split evenly between the two candidates (41 percent to 41 percent), men slightly favor the former president (47 percent to 41 percent) giving Trump a 6 percent advantage overall.
And while voters aged 35 to 54 still tend to favor Biden (45 percent to 39 percent, with 16 percent undecided), that slight advantage is completely offset by Trump’s much larger lead (48 percent 34 percent, with 17 percent still undecided) among younger voters aged 18 to 34.
The Emerson poll also showed that a third-party candidate is likely to damage Biden’s chances in 2024. When Green Party candidate Cornel West is included among possible presidential preferences, Donald Trump expands his lead over Biden to 5 points, 44 percent 39 percent, with 13 percent undecided.
It’s unclear if these voter trends will hold up as more opinion surveys are conducted by other polling organizations in the weeks ahead.
But overall, these two latest polls are very good news for Donald Trump – and very bad news for Biden.
Stewart Lawrence is a veteran social scientist and political columnist on immigration and Latino affairs for Huffington Post, Guardian (UK), Daily Caller, and other outlets.
