No threat to Joe Biden in Democratic primaries: Despite a great deal of media attention on Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. this summer, Joe Biden has a huge lead for the Democratic nomination.
Joe Biden is the King of the Democratic Party
There is, for all intents and purposes, not a competitive primary for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024. Sure, multiple candidates are running, but the entirety of the party establishment, including the DNC, is united behind the Joe Biden – Harris ticket, and no major elected Democrats, whether governors or members of Congress have chosen to take on the president. There will also not be any primary debates this year on the Democratic side.
One candidate, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., launched a challenge to Biden and received a large amount of media coverage throughout the spring and summer. But it soon became clear that Kennedy was not a serious challenger, between the clear fact that most of Kennedy’s support was coming from the right, and a series of embarrassing gaffes by the candidate. Among other things, Kennedy suggested that COVID-19 had been “ethnically targeted” to spare Jewish people, and later claimed falsely that the discussion had been off the record.
In fact, there has not been a great deal of polling of the Democratic candidates, as opposed to those of the much more crowded Republican race. But a poll this week shows Biden is well ahead in the race for the Democratic nomination.
According to the Morning Consult poll, released Wednesday, shows that Biden has 76 percent support among Democratic voters, compared to just 9 percent for Kennedy. This represents a high, to date, for Biden and a low for RFK, Jr. An additional 3 percent support Marianne Williamson, while 5 percent say “someone else.”
While most polls show that even Democrats harbor worries about Joe Biden’s age, he is still almost certain to emerge as the Democratic nominee.
“While Biden faces no serious challengers for the Democratic presidential nomination, the presence of gadfly candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson have contributed to some unhelpful headlines for his re-election bid in recent months. But the survey also suggests those candidates may have already seen their own high-water marks,” Morning Consult said in its release.
The report added that “Kennedy’s decline could be the latest sign that as Democratic voters hear more of his iconoclastic pitch, the less they think of him.”
On the Republican side, meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to hold a big lead, per Morning Consult.
Donald Trump has 60 percent support, compared to Ron DeSantis with just 15 percent and Vivek Ramaswamy with 8 percent. Mike Pence is in fourth place with 6 percent, followed by Nikki Haley with 5 percent, Chris Christie with 3 percent, and Tim Scott with 2 percent.
“Trump leads DeSantis by 45 percentage points among potential Republican primary voters (60% to 15%), marking one of the former president’s biggest advantages since tracking began in December,” the report said. It added that Ramaswamy, who appeared to get a bounce from the first presidential debate, is “slumping,” having fallen back into the single digits.
As for the general election matchup, Morning Consult has Joe Biden leading Trump 44-41, and leading DeSantis 44-39.
The RealClearPolitics average has Biden leading Trump by an average of 0.7 percent, with the majority of recent polls either showing the race tied or one candidate or the other leading by 1 or 2 points.
“While Morning Consult’s tracking of the Democratic primary picture brings good news for the Biden campaign, it also makes clear that there’s more work to do in unifying the party. And though he can likely count on a renomination for Trump to bring more voters back to his side, it would help his cause if he can make sure the voters who backed him in 2020 have something to vote for next year — and not just something to vote against,” Morning Consult said of the Democratic polling.
Author Expertise and Experience
Stephen Silver is a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive. He is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Stephen has authored thousands of articles over the years that focus on politics, technology, and the economy for over a decade. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
From the Vault