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China Won’t Start With Taiwan

221227-N-DU622-1227 PHILIPPINE SEA (Dec. 27, 2022) An F/A-18F Super Hornet from the “Fighting Redcocks” of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 22 prepares to launch from the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68). Nimitz is in 7th fleet conducting routine operations. 7th Fleet is the U.S. Navy's largest forward-deployed numbered fleet, and routinely interacts and operates with 35 maritime nations in preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Justin McTaggart)
221227-N-DU622-1227 PHILIPPINE SEA (Dec. 27, 2022) An F/A-18F Super Hornet from the “Fighting Redcocks” of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 22 prepares to launch from the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68). Nimitz is in 7th fleet conducting routine operations. 7th Fleet is the U.S. Navy's largest forward-deployed numbered fleet, and routinely interacts and operates with 35 maritime nations in preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Justin McTaggart)

Successful U.S. efforts to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could push China to attack other countries. 

American foreign policy in Asia focuses on preventing China from expanding into Taiwan or usurping U.S. partners’ claims in the South China Sea. Yet effective U.S. deterrence in the Pacific might push China to shift its aims inland, where it could assess its capabilities against more vulnerable neighbors before engaging targets like Taiwan. 

There are few opportunities for American force projection to inland Asia, meaning the region presents China with lower-risk opportunities to test the capabilities of their recently overhauled military. China has not had a major military operation since their 1979 humiliation in Vietnam, so a smaller intervention could allow them to test their capabilities, as well as global reactions to a Chinese projection of force. Accordingly, the United States should encourage regional power balancing to deter military action by China in these areas.

Chinese President Xi Jinping faces unique internal political pressures that drive him toward foreign military action. Xi faces party expectations to rejuvenate a stalling economy and to display the Chinese Communist Party’s strength domestically and internationally. He also wants to demonstrate the value of his extensive reforms to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). 

Considering China’s rapidly inverting population pyramid, its significant domestic unemployment and growing dissatisfaction, and Xi’s own age, time is running short to meet these expectations. That is why U.S. concerns about Taiwan’s security are growing.

That very U.S. attention to Taiwan might push Chinese ambitions toward other goals. Taiwan’s physical geography, porcupine defense strategy, and American patronage make it difficult to conquer. Coupled with the PLA’s lack of combat experience, a war with Taiwan is not a wise way for Xi to relieve the pressures he faces. Xi might first pursue limited military action in lower-stakes theaters in Central or Southeast Asia. 

Xi’s persecution of China’s Uyghur minority has raised border security concerns with states like Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan, which have limited ability to protect their sovereignty. Xi could leverage events like the collapse of Afghanistan and terrorist attacks on Chinese nationals as reasons to intervene militarily, perhaps through limited anti-terror campaigns. This would provide the PLA with valuable real-world experience and give Xi a chance to both assess PLA readiness and prove the value of his extensive reforms to the military. Evidence that those expensive reforms were successful could relieve political stress as China’s economy begins to falter. In the past, Russia’s military dominance in this region would have been a deterring factor, but their war in Ukraine has led to increased reliance on China, diminishing Moscow’s ability to credibly challenge Beijing.

China could also choose to intervene in a conflict in Southeast Asia. China shares a long border with Myanmar, a country embroiled in a seemingly interminable civil war since May 2021. China has long maintained proxy buffer states in Myanmar, and political and security concerns could create an opportunity for military experience. The threat of a climate refugee crisis in the Bengal flood plains could exacerbate perceptions of instability, or distract India from challenging an unprecedented Chinese intervention. 

Myanmar is a member of ASEAN, but its regional partners have been ineffective in their efforts to address the conflict. Moreover, China’s actions in the South China Sea imply they don’t view ASEAN as a serious deterrent. As such, China might engage in military campaigns to “stabilize” the region, providing similar benefits to hypothetical actions in Afghanistan: military experience for the PLA, and resultant political capital for Xi. 

A third target is perhaps more likely: militarily weak Mongolia. Mongolia’s shared border with China holds some of the world’s richest deposits of coal, uranium, molybdenum, copper, tin, and more. These resources could help fuel China’s growing nuclear programs, coal-plant construction, and electronic innovations — particularly regarding semiconductors. These expanding projects are critical if China wishes to protect itself from American trade warfare and international sanctions. Mongolia’s significant debt and recent domestic unrest, particularly related to coal production, have hindered Ulaanbaatar’s full utilization of these deposits and threatened the status quo in trade between Mongolia and China.

In 2022, the International Monetary Fund declared that Mongolia faces global shocks, border conflicts, and economic stagflation. Mongolia’s “political instability” is capable of “significantly disrupting strategic mining projects” favoring China, the IMF stated. With no formal foreign defense commitments and a tiny military, Mongolia’s precarious situation might tempt Beijing to forcefully seize and exploit underutilized border resources, providing invaluable and relatively low-risk real-world experience to the PLA, extremely valuable resources, and much-needed political capital for Xi Jinping.

In any of the above scenarios, the military experience and economic gains, as well as the political benefits to Xi, might motivate unexpected foreign action on China’s part, especially since the United States would have limited options to counter Beijing. There is little recent precedent for serious Chinese activity in any of these theaters, but given the fact that military experience and economic strength are vital to China’s ability to challenge America in the Pacific, there is enough risk that the United States should encourage regional powers like Russia and India to balance China and prevent such test runs. 

America’s containment of China in the Pacific Ocean is important to American interests. But denying China control of valuable assets and the opportunity to prove the PLA’s capabilities could in turn prevent Xi from ever developing the confidence to take more active measures in the Pacific. 

Regional powers balancing China out of Central and Southeast Asia could indirectly protect American investments in the Pacific. This is why it is so vital that America not only be aware of the risk China poses to Central and Southeast Asia, but also be active in encouraging regional powers to do something about that risk. America should utilize the interests of powers with stakes in the region before China takes the first step to launching a potentially disastrous war.

Patrick Fox is a Program Assistant at the John Quincy Adams Society, the Co-Host of the Security Dilemma Podcast and the Editor-In-Chief for the Realist Review. He holds a bachelor’s degree in international relations from Syracuse University and was a Fall 2022 Marcellus Policy Fellow. You can follow him on Twitter at @patrckfox.

Garrett Ehinger is an Assistant Editor at Realist Review and a China analyst who holds a bachelor’s in Biomedical Science with a minor in Mandarin Chinese from Brigham Young University in Idaho. He is currently a master’s student at the University of Utah studying public health. He has studied Chinese culture and language for over a decade. You can follow him on Twitter at @GarrettEhinger.

Patrick Fox is a Program Assistant at the John Quincy Adams Society, the Co-Host of the Security Dilemma Podcast and the Editor-In-Chief for the Realist Review. He holds a bachelor’s degree in international relations from Syracuse University and was a Fall 2022 Marcellus Policy Fellow. You can follow him on Twitter at @patrckfox. Garrett Ehinger is an Assistant Editor at Realist Review and a China analyst who holds a bachelor’s in Biomedical Science with a minor in Mandarin Chinese from Brigham Young University in Idaho. He is currently a master’s student at the University of Utah studying public health. He has studied Chinese culture and language for over a decade. You can follow him on Twitter at @GarrettEhinger.

26 Comments

26 Comments

  1. ericji

    September 8, 2023 at 2:16 pm

    China invading Afghanistan. Be interesting to see if they have better results than Russia or the US.

  2. pagar

    September 8, 2023 at 2:50 pm

    The title should be more correctly rephrased as ‘The pacific forces won’t start with taiwan.’

    Taiwan is simply too near the chinese coast, unlike say, okinawa or luzon or korea or guam.

    In a go for broke clash involving the extremely powerful pacific forces, taiwan would be a losing proposition for indopacom (the nanny of pac forces).

    The reason is the pacific forces or indopacom are aware china TODAY has the means to pummel taiwan to a pulp on the get go.

    Whichs means a very highly unavoidable fait accomoli right on the first day.

    Game over before pac forces can warm up for the expected long haul.

    But say, if the smoke starts at a little little bit further away place, like batanes island (currently a US military outpost just off luzon), it will fully benefit the pac forces.

    Today the pac forces easily have the means to insert land and sea based defenses in between to cut off any over the water strikes for such a place. Not taiwan.

    Thus location, location, location.

    The gist of today’s geopolitical reality in east asia (or western pacific) is that US is spoiling, spoiling, spoiling for a new ‘taiheiyo senso’ in the region, exactly following in the footsteps of a highly militaristic japan nearly a century ago.

    The incessant bullhorn diplomacy, the continuous hot and cold blowing, massive arms infusion, the numerous military bases, outposts and facilities all around, the endless war drills & war exercises, the new-type economic tripartite treaty like agreements, the increaingly shrill demands/visits of both GOP & dem politicians, constant provocative sail-bys and fly-bys and the huge amount of NSA and CIA groundwork and cyberwork and the fact that many US firms are involved in both soft & hard espionage and intelligence gathering point to a coming US-planned big taiheiyo senso in the western pacific.

    It will surely come once russia is defeated and buried in the current ukraine war.

    Thus, ironically, it is now up to russia to save the day, so to speak.

    Rusdia MUST employ nukes to stop US and its stooges in ukraine (europe). Before they move over to aid the pacific forces.

  3. Commentar

    September 8, 2023 at 3:53 pm

    U.S. ‘efforts’ are to shepherd and nurture America’s aim to take over the whole entire world, and to establish a one-world order, with uncle Sam as sole overlord.

    To do that, the U.S. efforts must be geared to beat down the challenge posed by 2 big huge great recalcitrants, namely Russia and china.

    Russia has a large still-impressive nuke arsenal with new top notch latest nuke submarines, while china is expected to become biggest economy by 2035, to unceremoniously or rudely knock uncle Sam off its perch.

    That is all totally most unacceptable to uncle Sam, so U.S. efforts are now to whip up brilliant plans to finish off both the two big huge recalcitrants.

    Plan A has already gone into action, with Russia trapped in the bloodily unspeakable Ukraine quagmire or rasputitsa.

    Plan B to follow after plan A is completed, which is the total destruction of china’s eastern seaboard which is chockfull of world best economic and industrial pearls and jewels.

    In oct 2021 the U.S. Navy sub, USS Connecticut collided with something while prowling just 140 nautical miles south-west of Hainan, where PLAN subs are based.

    That is a forerunner of future U.S. plans or efforts which are to start an incident, ignite a confrontation then followed by a clash then wholesale destruction of china’s eastern coast.

    That will come to fruition when the U.S. military comes into full possession of hypersonic weaponry.

    When that time comes, game over for both recalcitrants !

  4. CRS, DrPH

    September 8, 2023 at 4:21 pm

    Eastern territories of Russia are ripe for the taking.

  5. Rich Collins

    September 8, 2023 at 9:43 pm

    Beijing isn’t stupid enough to have their heads handed to them on the beaches of Taiwan. Much more likely that thewy can extort danegeld from the Bidens in the swamp that is DC.

  6. George Gordon Byron

    September 8, 2023 at 11:18 pm

    For the Author: there may be different scenarios: the United States attacks Mexico (Bolivia, Venezuela, Argentina and other countries in Europe, Asia, Africa, L. America). Also, there may be different scenarios in the SE. Asia. In March, Xi Jinping called reunification with Taiwan the goal of “all Chinese sons and daughters.” Previously, he had spoken of Beijing’s determination to counter Taipei’s “separatist activities.” However. Trade between China and Taiwan is very successful. And the United States does not recognize Taiwan as a separate state from China: nonsense!
    The economic consequences will be enormous. Geographical location of Taiwan: More than 40% of goods transported in the world cross the Taiwan Strait. Taipei accounts for 60% of the world’s semiconductor production, and a military conflict with Beijing would negatively impact global trade. It is unlikely that the PRC will take such a risk… But if Taiwan ceases to be the capital of semiconductors (or refuses to sell them to the PRC), then this may push the PRC to hostilities.
    For CREDITS, DrPH September 8, 2023 at 4:21 pm
    The eastern territories of Russia are ripe for seizure… in whose minds? Why should China seize these territories? It is easier for China (like the US, UK, EU and others) to buy what it needs from Russia than to fight.
    What China (like the US, UK, EU and others) did, is doing, and will do in Russia. Despite the geopolitical situation, the position taken, the sanctions imposed and other stupid nonsense.
    The PRC may need Russia’s help in a possible future conflict with the United States.
    Since 1945:
    – The United States conducted 32 military operations: won -14, lost – 8, without results and ongoing conflicts – 10. They killed more than 4.5 million people;
    – Since 1945, the USA and NATO have destroyed, enslaved, robbed, and plunged dozens of countries with hundreds of millions of people into chaos. And almost nowhere have we achieved a positive democratic, humane result.
    – Wars with the participation of the PRC won -6, lost 2, without results and ongoing conflicts – 2.
    In total, the USA carried out 32 operations, and the PRC 10. Well, who is the threat to the whole world?
    That is, military costs are not always compensated by the military prizes received.
    As a loan provider, you should be aware of this.

  7. Ben Leucking

    September 9, 2023 at 1:03 am

    Mongolia would seem to be a safe bet if China wanted to absorb it. The border between the two countries is 2,880 miles and the Mongolian military only has about 18,000 personnel out of a population of less than 3.5 million. In short, Mongolia and its vast mineral wealth would be easy pickings for China. To top it off, Russia would be in no position to do anything about it.

  8. George Gordon Byron

    September 9, 2023 at 6:18 am

    For the Author: there may be different scenarios: the United States attacks Mexico (Bolivia, Venezuela, Argentina and other states of Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America that the United States dislikes). Also, there may be different scenarios in Southeast Asia. In March, Xi Jinping called reunification with Taiwan the goal of “all Chinese sons and daughters.” Previously, he had spoken of Beijing’s determination to counter Taipei’s “separatist activities.” However, trade between China and Taiwan is very successful. And the United States does not recognize Taiwan as a separate state from China, but helps it in its separatism (nonsense!).
    The economic consequences will be enormous. Geographical location of Taiwan: More than 40% of goods transported in the world cross the Taiwan Strait. Taipei accounts for 60% of the world’s semiconductor production, and a military conflict with Beijing would negatively impact global trade. It is unlikely that the PRC will take such a risk… But if Taiwan ceases to be the capital of semiconductors (or refuses to sell them to the PRC), then this may push the PRC to hostilities.
    For CREDITS, DrPH September 8, 2023 at 4:21 pm
    The eastern territories of Russia are ripe for seizure… in whose minds? Why should China seize these territories? It is easier for China (like the US, UK, EU and others) to buy what it needs from Russia than to fight.
    What China (like the US, UK, EU and others) did, is doing, and will do in Russia. Despite the geopolitical situation, the position taken, the sanctions imposed and other stupid nonsense.
    The PRC may need Russia’s help in a possible future conflict with the United States.
    Since 1945:
    – The United States conducted 32 military operations: won -14, lost – 8, without results and ongoing conflicts – 10. They killed more than 4.5 million people;
    – Since 1945, the USA and NATO have destroyed, enslaved, robbed, and plunged dozens of countries with hundreds of millions of people into chaos. And almost nowhere have we achieved a positive democratic, humane result.
    – Wars with the participation of the PRC won -6, lost 2, without results and ongoing conflicts – 2.
    In total, the USA carried out 32 operations, and the PRC 10. Well, who is the threat to the whole world?
    That is, military costs are not always compensated by the military prizes received.
    As a loan provider, you should be aware of this.

  9. JDDrouin

    September 9, 2023 at 8:31 am

    The fact of the matter is that China is not militarily capable of invading and keeping any of the Pacific island countries … not even a small one such as Brunei. They would lose and lose badly, and they know that.

    Additionally, the statement “Successful U.S. efforts to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could push China to attack other countries.” is nonsense of the scope and scale as equating the rings of Saturn with global warming on Earth … there is absolutely no connection between the two.

    As to whether or not China may invade Mongolia, they will certainly do that commercially. However, HOWEVER, their military has shown no evidence of overcoming the faults that lead to Vietnam slobberknocking them the last time they butted heads … so invade Myanmar or others, good luck with that.

  10. Edison Carter

    September 9, 2023 at 9:59 am

    If you look at map of China in the Qing Dynasty you see that Outer Mongolia was part of China, so they can use their “Since ancient times …” excuse to take over this country. From what have read Mongolia tried several time to join the Soviet Union and was rebuffed each time. The world would not give an ounce of spit if Mongolia was taken over.

  11. Brian M Foley

    September 9, 2023 at 10:34 am

    This is a poorly thought out rambling article about China needing an outlet for its frustrations. China has gambled significant resources and revenue on building up its military. There is a lot of speculation about the motivation for China’s military build-up, most of it assuming Taiwan being the obvious target, but invading Taiwan isn’t really an option right now. The best mainland China can hope for is an electoral victory and a shift in public opinion in the Taiwanese public. China has built up its military but it is not sufficiently prepared to invade Taiwan nor is China prepared to accept the diplomatic and economic “blow-back” from an invasion of Taiwan. The same applies to any of its neighbors with the singular exception of Myanmar. China might even be viewed as the “Good Guys” in an invasion of Myanmar if it leads to the overthrow of that brutally oppressive regime.

  12. Jim

    September 9, 2023 at 10:34 am

    China has been attempting to curry favor with nation-states bordering on China or regionally close to China.

    One of China’s big pitches to woo these nations is its economic strength, but more important, so China claims, is their respect for International Law and respect for their neighboring nation-state’s sovereignty.

    Supposedly, in contrast to the United States.

    Be ready to call out China should they engage in bellicose actions… to the nations which surround China.

    Taiwan is ‘fool’s gold’ for the United States.

    War over Taiwan against China is not in the United States Vital National Security Interest.

    Challenging the illegal annexation of the South China Sea is where the United States does have an interest to confront China… where there are other countries which have had their internationally recognized territory rights impacted and will work with the United States.

    The South China Sea is where to directly confront China… if necessary even with force of arms.

    Taiwan… is a dead loser… we already recognize Taiwan is part of China.

  13. Bill

    September 9, 2023 at 11:39 am

    We should be so lucky that China would attack Afghanistan. Look at the wonders it did for us. Seriously though, It’s not our job to protect every country that China might attack. It’s in our interest to defend Taiwan because 1) We have a longstanding relationship to it despite official ambiguity, 2) it lies close to several major allies and 3)it’s importance to tech industries.

  14. ATM

    September 9, 2023 at 12:25 pm

    Given that the US will get involved, the first target must be US forward deployed Navy, Air Force, and Army across the world. A lighting strike with hundreds of tactical nukes. If you do not strike the US homeland in the process the US is out of the game, because the only remaining option is MAD. Then China might attack other nations, but it would not need to.

  15. Dave Nelson

    September 9, 2023 at 1:25 pm

    I’d said it before: The easy way China takes Taiwan is with a large EMP half way between Taipei and Guam and a couple tiny ones on Taiwan’s ports and international airports. The loss of all electric means will result in mass starvation (the ports and airports being closed, the US can;t help). 90% population will die within 12 months due to starvation and disease. The same fate could strike Guam and the Philippines but IMO US will be able to help both quite a bit.

    A year later a small contingent of Chinese forces land on Taiwan, sweep away the bones, and the Taiwanese dirt is theirs again.

  16. HAT451

    September 9, 2023 at 3:25 pm

    I think the best target for China would be Myanmar for the following reasons. There is already unrest in Myanmar. If successful in taking over Myanmar, China would now border Thailand, a US ally and have access to the Andaman Sea, i.e. the Indian Ocean. All that would be needed is a casus belli, a reason to justify the invasion. I see this as the most dangerous to the regional countries who are neutral or allied with the US, such as Thailand and India.

    I do not think it makes sense to attack Mongolia, since it can be choked off economically. Mongolia can not export any bulk resources without Russia or China’s consent. Therefore economic pressure will be enough to put it into China or Russia’s sphere of influence.

    Afghanistan has been a “basket case” of instability and will continue to be so in the near future. Although rich in raw resources, and a it will allow China to move Westward, and closer to Europe, it does not offer the strategic advantages that move southward does, while inheriting all of Afghanistan’s current problems.

    More-so, neither Afghanistan nor Mongolia have sea nor ocean shores.

  17. Jim

    September 9, 2023 at 3:32 pm

    It can not be emphasized enough, China is attempting to be an anchor of the neutral, non-aligned nations… somehow more reliable than the United States.

    Pointing out China’s conquest & annexation of the South China Sea, which has already been adjudged against International Law… for a number of years, now, is the way to show China is a Trojan Horse.

    Pull the sheep’s clothing off of the wolf of China.

    Taiwan is not the place to do that.

    No, it’s the Titanic heading for the iceberg.

  18. GhostTomahawk

    September 10, 2023 at 12:02 am

    Beating the hell out of weak states or embarking upon an anti terror campaign will not prepare China for Taiwan or the US. Nothing will. The best thing China can do to prepare for war with the US is to wargame itself with the OPFOR using US miltary tactics.

  19. Jacksonian Libertarian

    September 10, 2023 at 8:47 am

    It is foolish to think Xi Jinping is going to do what a General intent on Imperial Ambitions would do.
    Xi Jinping is a Communist Politician whose only consideration is “keeping the CCP gang in power”.
    In recent years the west’s cultural penetration of the Chinese, with a growing middle-class, has threatened that power, which the Tiananmen Square massacre forced underground.
    Xi Jinping is going to start a war in the China Sea, but it will not be because he thinks he can win, but because he needs the “Bloody Shirt” to wave to generate public support for the CCP.
    If Xi Jinping was really working for the betterment of the Chinese, he never would have wasted Trillions on a greater than Nazi Level military build up (nobody was threatening them), or threatened all its neighbors and biggest customers (1st World) that have been uplifting China out of the abject poverty created by CCP gang mismanagement.
    Chinese revolts are historically exceptionally bloody, the Communist Party is well aware of this fact, and has duly earned the vengeance of the Chinese people.

  20. Dave Nelson

    September 10, 2023 at 2:36 pm

    Another thought: Why would the government of the Han Chinese want to incorporate a large population that isn’t Han Chinese? They don’t seem to want to be a multinational state — we can see how they feel about such populations w/ the Tibetans and the Uighurs.

    Should there be any Chinese initiated military conflict that’s not Taiwan I would expect it to be a limited territorial grab, trying to recover some chunk of land poorly mapped as Chinese in some ancient scroll in conjunction with ethnic cleansing if the newly acquired population is too large. IOW, no full country grabs.

  21. Richard Eng

    September 10, 2023 at 4:35 pm

    > Yet effective U.S. deterrence in the Pacific might push China to shift its aims inland, where it could assess its capabilities against more vulnerable neighbors before engaging targets like Taiwan.

    What a load of bull. China is a peaceful nation. Since 1979, it has fought no wars. How many wars have USA and NATO fought during this period? Dozens.

    Factually, China is the most peaceful world power the world has ever known.

    And, by the way, Taiwan is part of China. The United Nations acknowledges this. Even the United States acknowledges this (read the Three Communiqués). Nearly the entire world adheres to the One China principle.

  22. Richard Eng

    September 10, 2023 at 4:48 pm

    > Considering China’s rapidly inverting population pyramid, its significant domestic unemployment and growing dissatisfaction…

    China’s demographic problem is way overblown. According to Population Pyramid (based on UN data), China’s population in 2075 will be 1,029,035,604. America’s population in 2075 will be 389,390,579.

    China’s working-age population (20–59) will be 412,563,029 which will be larger than the total US population!

    In 2100, China’s population will be 766,673,270. America’s population will be 394,041,155. China’s working-age population will be 300,826,825.

    America’s working-age (20–59) population will be 176,590,202 and if you include up to age 64, it’s 199,708,902. China’s working-age population will be 50% larger than America’s.

    Does this sound like a disaster?

    As for growing dissatisfaction, look at the following surveys…

    According to the Global Happiness 2023 survey from Ipsos, China is the happiest country in the world at 91% compared to 76% for USA, 74% for Canada and France, and 70% for UK.

    According to Ash Center at Harvard Kennedy School in 2020, 95.5% of Chinese are satisfied with their government.

    A 2019 UC San Diego study shows a high level of satisfaction among the Chinese across a range of aspects up to 95 percent.

    According to the 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer, 89% of Chinese trust their government compared to 56% for France, 51% for Canada, 47% for Germany, 46% for Italy, 42% for USA, 37% for UK, 36% for Spain, and 33% for Japan.

    A November 2019 Ipsos survey shows that 94 percent of Chinese believe their country is on the right track.

    And finally, according to Latana’s Democracy Perception Index 2023, China is the 6th most democratic nation on earth, well ahead of Germany, Spain, Canada, Italy, UK, USA, France, and Japan. [The only people who are qualified to judge whether or not a country is democratic are the people being governed in that country.]

    Three of these surveys were published in 2023, after Xi Jinping had been granted a third term, and after the pandemic was basically over.

  23. Richard Eng

    September 10, 2023 at 4:53 pm

    > Xi’s persecution of China’s Uyghur minority…

    This is Western propaganda nonsense. There is no credible evidence to support the allegation of Uyghur persecution. This has even been investigated by the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation which found no wrongdoings.

  24. Pied Piper

    September 10, 2023 at 10:03 pm

    China is not a Cowboy and not at all keen on looking like a buffoon with smirk and “mission accomplished” guffaw.
    It has already firmly and decisively uprooted western hegemony in Africa and South America. Visit those countries and see for yourself or like they say – wake up and smell the coffee.

    While armchair Jokers like this expert author debate which country China will “Invade”. It will decide on where to cut west next. Remember: death by 1000 cuts is their motto. 🙂

  25. Jake Dee

    September 11, 2023 at 10:38 am

    You’re dead wrong about increasing Western cultural penetration of China. What was the last significant western cultural export to China? The Marvel Cinematic Universe, utter fantasy based on 1970s comic books. What was the last major cultural innovation of America? Transgenderism. Western culture in general and America’s in particular is looking increasingly insane.

  26. Richard Eng

    September 11, 2023 at 12:07 pm

    Jacksonian Libertarian says Xi Jinping doesn’t work for the betterment of the people and wasted trillions of dollars on military buildup for no reason.

    In the last 10 years, China spent $1.7 trillion in total on its military, whereas USA spent over $7 trillion. Who’s doing the wasting?

    USA (and NATO) are palpable threats to China’s security. They’ve been interfering in Taiwan’s politics. They’ve been arming Taiwan. They’ve been conducting naval exercises near Chinese waters. They’ve been forming military pacts against China. They’ve been increasing the number of military bases encircling China (several more bases will be added in Philippines). NATO wants to open a liaison office in Japan!

    How would USA react if China built a military base in Cuba, or conducted naval exercises near the California coast? What if China interfered in Hawaiian or Texan politics?

    Xi Jinping has worked hard to improve the lives of the Chinese people. In 2020, he finally eradicated absolute poverty once and for all (neighboring India still has over 100 million people living in absolute poverty).

    After his first two terms, Xi doubled China’s GDP!

    During his tenure, China built 40,000 kilometers of high-speed rail, more than in the rest of the world combined! The Chinese love travelling by train.

    Xi protected his people from COVID-19 with the lowest per capita death rate of all the major economies. According to Johns Hopkins, America had 1,123,836 Covid deaths for a per capita death rate of 341.11 per 100,000 population.

    China had 101,056 Covid deaths for a per capita death rate of 7.16 per 100,000 population.

    America’s per capita Covid death rate was 47.64 times greater than China’s!!!

    It’s worth noting that other advanced economies did not fare much better than America:

    UK — 220,721 deaths, 325.13 per 100,000 population

    Italy — 188,322 deaths, 311.47 per 100,000 population

    Germany — 168,935 deaths, 203.16 per 100,000 population

    France — 166,176 deaths, 254.68 per 100,000 population

    Spain — 119,479 deaths, 255.54 per 100,000 population

    Japan — 72,997 deaths, 57.72 per 100,000 population (8.06 times worse than China)

    Canada — 51,720 deaths, 135.23 per 100,000 population (18.89 times worse than China)

    They all performed far worse than China.

    What other world leader has done so much for its people? Surely, not Biden nor Trump.

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