With the smallest majority possible, respondents to a POLITICO Morning Consult poll have declared that Trump should be disqualified from the 2024 ballot for violating the Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, the ‘Insurrection Clause.’
“After a series of questions about the Constitution and Trump’s conduct after the 2020 presidential election, 51 percent said the 14th Amendment prohibits Trump from running again because he engaged in insurrection, compared with 34 percent who said the opposite,” POLITICO reported.
Section 3 of the 14th Amendment reads that those “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” against the United States, or those who have “give aid or comfort to the enemies thereof,” are disqualified from holding public office, including the presidency.
Now, an odd assembly, which includes liberals and conservatives, are holding that Trump’s behavior in the aftermath of the 2020 election, leading up to the January 6th riot, violated the 14th Amendment and should disqualify him from the 2024 ballot. It’s a longshot with wonkish undertone, but the issue is expected to be decided in the courts.
The poll results
The first question in the POLITICO poll asked whether Americans “support or oppose” the insurrection clause. For the most part, 63 percent of voters (which included Democrats, Republicans, and independents) answered that they either strongly or somewhat support the clause. Meanwhile, 16 percent of respondents answered that they somewhat or strongly oppose the clause.
But once POLITICO asked their follow up question, which included Donald Trump, respondents delivered more partisan answers. “When asked if they believed Trump “engaged in insurrection or rebellion,” 51 percent said either definitely or probably yes, and 35 percent said definitely or probably no,” POLITICO reported. “That number is divided sharply on party lines: 79 percent of Democrats – and 49 percent of independents – say that he did, while just under a quarter of Republicans agree.” Respondents answered similarly, along party lines, for a third question that asked whether Trump gave “aid and/or comfort” to those who engaged in insurrection.
Whether Trump actually is disqualified from the ballot will likely be up to the Supreme Court.
The mechanics of disqualification
Almost universally, secretaries of state are deferring responsibility for deciding whether Trump should be on the ballot in their respective states. The court should decide, the secretaries of state are saying.
“The United States Supreme Court is the appropriate place to resolve this issue,” said Michigan’s Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson. “The bottom line is it’s not about us at all. It doesn’t matter what a secretary of state does because we expect the Supreme Court to be the final arbiter.”
Aside from legal considerations, practical considerations are also dampening the effort to block Trump; the states are quickly approaching the deadline to lock in their primary ballots, “and it takes election offices weeks to prepare, print and mail out ballots to voters in states,” POLITICO reported.
So, the likelihood that the Supreme Court settles a 14th Amendment case involving Trump before the primary ballot deadline passes in most states is slim. Don’t get your hopes up: Donald Trump will most likely be participating in the 2024 election.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor and opinion writer at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
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