Key Point from Author: Donald Trump could be a net positive for Republicans when he’s on the Republican ticket–as in 2020 when he lost a close race to Joe Biden, but the GOP picked out House seats. However, his aura is a net liability when he’s not on the ballot.
The Unsolvable Donald Trump Issue for the GOP
It’s not surprising that New Hampshire’s Republican Gov. Chris Sununu–a NeverTrumper–would blame much of his party’s woes on the 45th president. But he may also be missing a key point.
Sununu says the Donald Trump brand has devastated Republican candidates in races ranging from national all the way down to school boards. That’s all true. What Sununu doesn’t seem to get is that the Trump brand has created collateral damage for most other Republicans, except for Donald Trump. Why?
During an interview on Meet the Press, the four-term Granite State governor talked about an analysis from FiveThirtyEight about 38 special elections as of early last month where Democrats outperformed GOP candidates by an average of 10%.
“It’s about the former president more than anything,” Sununu said. “I can tell you, I’ve had school board members, Republican school board members, which have lost their seats because they felt like they had to constantly answer for being a Trump Republican and all of that,” he said. “It’s a negative brand. It puts a lot of hesitation.”
The governor added that it’s across the board.
“It isn’t just the federal seats. It’s the governorships, the school boards, the congressional seats, all of them, especially here in a place like New Hampshire where we go back and forth,” Sununu added. “We’re very independent-minded. The Trump brand doesn’t work.”
Well, it doesn’t work for perhaps most GOP candidates, and maybe not for the party writ large—unless Trump is on the ballot.
Trump won the 2016 election, and Republicans held onto Congress. Democrats won the House in 2018. After the 2020 election, Democrats took over the White House and Senate–but lost House seats.
Then, in the 2022 election we had the red wave that wasn’t. The fact is that President Biden and Democrats were strategically correct last year when they used the “MAGA extremists” campaign to scare voters. This fired up the Democratic Party base. Also, Democrats were able to turnout enough of the Trump Haters in 2022 even without Trump on the ballot.
In contrast to all this, Trump is polling even with or beating Joe Biden in polls. There is a disconnect here.
It’s clear that the Democratic base will turn out to vote against Trump allies at close to the same numbers it will turn out to vote against Trump himself. Unfortunately for Republicans, the Trump base won’t turn out if he isn’t on the ballot.
Trump has a counter-base, a legion of devotees that have the same level of enthusiasm in favor of their man as Trump Haters have against him.
So, Donald Trump could be a net positive for Republicans when he’s on the Republican ticket–as in 2020 when he lost a close race to Joe Biden, but the GOP picked out House seats. However, his aura is a net liability when he’s not on the ballot.
Though I’m still not convinced it’s wise for Republicans to re-nominate him again for president.
What then happens if Trump gets beat for the nomination? Well, it could go either way.
If Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley should gain a surprise victory over Trump in the Republican primaries, Democrats would have a tough time playing the same “MAGA extremist” card as they played in 2022. The reason is that the party’s voters will have defeated Trump.
Trump tried and failed in the 2020 general election campaign to tie Biden to socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders. It didn’t work since Biden defeated Sanders rather soundly in that year’s 2020 Democratic primary. The same would be true in the inverse.
On the other hand, if Trump is not the standard bearer for the GOP in 2024, that legion of Trump devotees might stay home on Election Day. That would harm Republicans. The upside is that a Trump-less election also means Democrats are less motivated to vote.
Sununu contends America is a center-right country that would support the GOP candidates if not for the Trump brand. That’s questionable. What’s certain is that Trump’s aura in an election would be enough to cause voter turnout to dwindle or rise on both sides of the political spectrum.
Barbara Joanna Lucas is a writer and researcher in Northern Virginia. She has been a healthcare professional, political blogger, is a proud dog mom, and news junkie. Follow her on Twitter @BasiaJL.
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