Nevada became one of the states that gave Joe Biden the presidency in 2020. Polling suggests that Nevada will be a battleground state once again in 2024. Both Trump and Biden are statistically tied in the Silver State.
Biden edges out Trump by a 46 percent to 45 percent margin. The survey of 1,251 registered Nevada voters had a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points and was taken Sept. 29-Oct. 6.
The current incumbent won Nevada in 2020 by a 50.1 percent to 47.7 percent margin.
Nevada Voters Voting Against Trump, Not for Biden
Democrats enjoy an advantage in the form of union workers who were at the tip of the spear of Biden’s 2020 get-out-the-vote campaign in Nevada. Union organizers took credit for the Biden victory in 2020. Over 600,000 mail-in ballots helped put Biden over the top. Trump also lost Nevada in 2016.
Of those who said they planned to vote for Joe Biden next year, 55 percent of Nevada voters said they would vote against Donald Trump and not for Biden. Among those who said they were voting for Trump, 63 percent said they planned to vote for him because they wanted to see him back in office.
Trump Leads in Pennsylvania
A Quinnipiac Poll found that Biden and Trump were statistically tied in Pennsylvania, another 2020 battleground; however, Trump edged out Biden in the Keystone State by a 47 percent to 45 percent margin.
“Biden vs. Trump: same as it ever was, setting up another likely bare-knuckled brawl between the two candidates in Biden’s home state,” Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said.
Neither Trump nor Biden has a favorable personal image in Pennsylvania. Trump has a 56 percent unfavorable rating while Biden has a 57 percent unfavorable rating.
Biden Leads Among Minorities
However, Biden enjoys a commanding lead among Blacks and Hispanics in Pennsylvania.
“The Biden campaign has been making a concerted effort in recent weeks to motivate Black voters after polls appeared to show the president’s approval rating falling. Black voters make up a significant part of the base of the Democratic Party, and Biden will need strong turnout in key states such as Pennsylvania next year in what is looking like it could be a tight reelection race against Trump, the leading GOP contender,” Cheyenne Daniels wrote in a column that appeared in The Hill. “Vice President Harris spent September campaigning at historically Black colleges and universities, and the campaign recently dropped a new ad targeting Black voters. The ad, ‘Get Ahead,’ highlights how the administration has made equity a cornerstone of its policy agenda.”
Biden enjoys 81 percent support among Pennsylvania’s Hispanic population compared with 19 percent for Trump. That is higher than in 2020 when he won 69 percent of the Hispanic vote.
Voters Unenthusiastic About Either Candidate
The biggest problem for both candidates in Pennsylvania and elsewhere is a lack of enthusiasm.
“I don’t know if my moral compass could choose one of them,” Samantha Cieslinski, a participant in a Politics PA focus group, said. Another panelist – Michael Harcum – said that he would vote for Biden but “it would not be a happy or proud vote. It will be the lesser of the two evils.”
John Rossomando is a defense and counterterrorism analyst and served as Senior Analyst for Counterterrorism at The Investigative Project on Terrorism for eight years. His work has been featured in numerous publications such as The American Thinker, The National Interest, National Review Online, Daily Wire, Red Alert Politics, CNSNews.com, The Daily Caller, Human Events, Newsmax, The American Spectator, TownHall.com, and Crisis Magazine. He also served as senior managing editor of The Bulletin, a 100,000-circulation daily newspaper in Philadelphia, and received the Pennsylvania Associated Press Managing Editors first-place award for his reporting.