The 2024 election will be decided within a handful of swing states. Within a handful of suburban counties within those swing states, really. The idea calls into question the authenticity of our democracy, but that’s a bigger issue for another day. At the moment, political observers are keeping a close eye on the swing states for any indication of which way the 2024 election might break.
Arizona and Georgia
Swing state observers have some good news for former President Donald Trump: Trump is ahead of President Biden in both Arizona and Georgia – two states that broke for Trump in 2016, but then flipped to Biden for 2020, helping to sway the outcomes of both elections.
“In Arizona, Trump is beating Biden by 5 points, 44 to 39 percent, according to polling data from Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, taken between October 7 and 9,” Newsweek reported. “the former president is also beating Biden by 3 points in Georgia, 43 to 40 percent.”
Historically, Arizona and Georgia are red states, where voters consistently choose Republican candidates. Yet, in 2020, Biden was able to push both states blue, narrowly winning Arizona with a 0.3 percent margin, and Georgia, with a 0.2 percent margin.
The 2022 midterms, in which Trump endorsed candidates (Kari Lake in Arizona, Herschel Walker in Georgia) lost big, suggested that Biden still has an edge in the newly contestable swing states. But the most recent polls show Trump is very much in the race to win both Arizona and Georgia. Expect both states to become hotbeds of political activity throughout the next year.
Pennsylvania and Michigan
The poll also showed Biden edging out Trump, by 1 point, in Pennsylvania – 43 percent to 42 percent.
“While Pennsylvania had voted for the Democratic nominee in the six presidential elections prior to 2016, Trump managed to win the 19 Electoral votes from the state with a margin of 0.7 percent,” Newsweek reported. “However in 2020, Pennsylvania turned blue once again, with Biden winning the state by 1.2 percent.”
Nearby, in Michigan, Trump and Biden are tied with 41 percent a piece. Like Pennsylvania, Michigan has historically voted for Democratic candidates. And again, like Pennsylvania, Trump was able to flip Michigan for the 2016 election, winning with a 0.2 percent margin. And, in 2020, Michigan flipped back to blue; Biden won with a 2.8 percent margin. Clearly, Pennsylvania and Michigan seem tied to one another. Can Biden carry the two Rust Belt swing states again?
Biden’s race to lose
The incumbent is typically seen as having an advantage in presidential elections. But Biden has suffered from nagging popularity problems (and lingering questions about his advanced age.)
“Biden has a negative net approval rating in all six swing states that varies from 4 to 9 percent, according to the polling data,” Newsweek reported. “In Arizona, the president has a negative net approval rating of 8 percent and a negative net approval rating of 5 percent in Georgia.”
However, a recent Rasmussen Reports survey suggests some good news for Biden: 49 percent of Americans approve of Biden’s conduct while in office, whereas just 48 percent disapprove.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor and opinion writer at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.