In 2020, President Biden defeated former President Trump by winning several major swing states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Georgia — that Trump had won in 2016.
A new poll of swing states shows that Biden is falling behind Trump, his likely 2024 opponent, in the most crucial battleground states.
The poll comes from the New York Times and Siena College and arrives nearly one year before 2024’s Election Day.
“President Biden is trailing Donald J. Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election, suffering from enormous doubts about his age and deep dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy and a host of other issues,” the Times said.
In what the poll calls the six major swing states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, Arizona, and Georgia — Trump is leading Biden in all except for Wisconsin. And in some, Trump is leading by a lot, including an 11-point lead in Nevada and a 5-point lead in Michigan.
But that’s not the only bad news for Biden in the poll.
“Discontent pulsates throughout the Times/Siena poll, with a majority of voters saying Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them,” the Times said. “The survey also reveals the extent to which the multiracial and multigenerational coalition that elected Mr. Biden is fraying. Demographic groups that backed Mr. Biden by landslide margins in 2020 are now far more closely contested, as two-thirds of the electorate sees the country moving in the wrong direction.”
The poll also found that Biden barely enjoys an advantage over Trump with young voters in those states and that many voters believe the nation is on the “wrong track.”
Also, in the survey, 71 percent consider Biden “too old” to be president, while just 39 percent say the same of Trump, who is only about three years younger than the president.
The poll also found that a “generic Democrat” leads Trump in every single swing state, but a “generic Democrat” is not a real person who is available to run for president.
There are some caveats. This is only one poll, the election is still a year away, and some recent national polls have shown Biden ahead. A lot can still happen, and Trump’s ratings may very well be hit by his multiple criminal trials, and possible convictions, over the course of 2024.
But there was still a great deal of panic, especially among Democrats, once the poll numbers arrived.
“It’s very late to change horses; a lot will happen in the next year that no one can predict & Biden’s team says his resolve to run is firm,” David Axelrod, the former Obama campaign and White House aid, said on X Sunday night. “He’s defied CW before but this will send tremors of doubt thru the party–not ‘bed-wetting,’ but legitimate concern.”
“These #’s will increase the Biden panic in Dem circles to an 11,” the Trump-skeptic Republican strategist Mike Murphy said, also on X. “While Biden is in real trouble (and should have declared victory at one term) the Joe skeptic younger voters here are — with a good campaign — v likely to come back to Biden in the end.”
“Now everyone is on notice that Biden is definitely going to lose. These numbers are atrocious and unrecoverable. It doesn’t matter how much you lie to yourself, it’s not going to change the fact that this is a guaranteed loss for Democrats,” Cenk Uygur, the leftist media figure who is running for president as a Democrat — despite not being eligible for the office — said on X.
The RealClearPolitics average of polls, meanwhile, shows Trump leading by an average of 0.9 percent, with recent CBS News and The Messenger polls showing Trump ahead by 3 and 2 points, respectively.
Author Expertise and Experience
Stephen Silver is a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive. He is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Stephen has authored thousands of articles over the years that focus on politics, technology, and the economy for over a decade. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
