$132,000,000,000 Columbia-Class Submarine: Does the Navy Really Need It?

Key Points: The Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) will replace the aging Ohio class, extending the U.S. nuclear deterrent through the 21st century.

–These stealthy 21,000-ton subs, carrying 16 Trident II missiles, boast advanced survivability, longer operational lifespans, and reduced maintenance needs.

-However, their $132 billion program cost poses a significant burden to the defense budget without materially advancing U.S. national security beyond current capabilities.

-With heightened tensions among nuclear powers, the necessity for this fleet is undeniable, yet its construction underscores the enduring threat of nuclear annihilation and the challenges of maintaining strategic stability in a multipolar world.

Columbia-Class Submarines: The Future of U.S. Nuclear Deterrence

The project to build the next generation of U.S. Navy ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) appears to be proceeding with only the occasional hiccup. The Columbia-class subs will extend the undersea component of the U.S. nuclear deterrent for at least four more generations.

On their own merits, they appear to be worthy successors to the Ohio-class. Nevertheless, their expense will pose an enormous burden to the U.S. defense budget, and the need for their construction represents a failure of post-Cold War hopes for a less dangerous world.

Columbia-Class: Nature of the Project

Successors to the long-serving Ohio class ballistic missile submarines (themselves constructed in the 1970s and 1980s), the Columbias will displace 21000 tons submerged and will be able to make over 20 knots submerged.

Due to the sensitive nature of ship, precise data on capabilities is unavailable, but the boats are expected to be quieter than their predecessors.

The Columbias will carry sixteen Trident II missiles, which currently carry an average of 4.4 warheads due to treaty restrictions but could be modified to carry up to 14 multiple independent re-entry vehicles (MIRV), each with its own warhead.

Their nuclear power plant will not require mid-career refueling, unlike the Ohios.

USS District of Columbia is expected to enter service in 2031, with eleven more boats commissioning roughly annually. However, supply chain issues may push this timetable back.

But the cost is significant. The USS District of Columbia will cost $15 billion-plus (including design and facility costs), with the ensuing boats dropping to $9 billion-plus. The Navy plans to build twelve, but all of the expectations associated with the submarines must be interpreted cautiously. If the United States and Russia fail to maintain the system of treaties (primarily New START) that have limited nuclear weapons platforms since the end of the Cold War, the US might end up building a lot more submarines.

Puget Sound Naval Shipyard, Wash. (Aug. 14, 2003) — USS Ohio (SSGN 726) is in dry dock undergoing a conversion from a Ballistic Missile Submarine (SSBN) to a Guided Missile Submarine (SSGN) designation. Ohio has been out of service since Oct. 29, 2002 for conversion to SSGN at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard. Four Ohio-class strategic missile submarines, USS Ohio (SSBN 726), USS Michigan (SSBN 727) USS Florida (SSBN 728), and USS Georgia (SSBN 729) have been selected for transformation into a new platform, designated SSGN. The SSGNs will have the capability to support and launch up to 154 Tomahawk missiles, a significant increase in capacity compared to other platforms. The 22 missile tubes also will provide the capability to carry other payloads, such as unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and Special Forces equipment. This new platform will also have the capability to carry and support more than 66 Navy SEALs (Sea, Air and Land) and insert them clandestinely into potential conflict areas. U.S. Navy file photo. (RELEASED)

The Annoyance

The bothersome part of the SSBN replacement plan is that it does not, in any material way, improve the national security position of the United States over what holds now.

The SSBN force is the most survivable component of the U.S. nuclear triad, and as older boats age and technologies slip from the cutting edge, and expensive replacement strategy is necessary. The Columbias will undoubtedly be very good at hiding, and very good at preparing to launch missiles at Russian and Chinese targets. Still, they won’t be notably better at that job than the Ohios were in their heyday.

Why Can’t the Columbia-Class Be Cut?

The problem for the Navy is that the Columbias are a priority budget project that can’t be touched. Yet, the Navy will never see any meaningful combat value from the boats (except some kind of conversion to other combat roles, such as the four Ohio class subs converted into cruise missile platforms).

USS Maine (SSBN-741). Image: Creative Commons.

And, of course, there are risks. Buying anything intended to perform a job for forty-two years inherently opens up unpredictability. Finding a submerged submarine and putting a weapon in that submarine remains a spectacularly difficult military feat. Still, certain technologies may render the ocean more transparent and the deterrent less secure. The proliferation of undersea unmanned vehicles could similarly make the Columbias more vulnerable than the Navy would like them to be. It seems unlikely that technological developments could render the Columbias utterly obsolete by 2073 (changes in employment and location are more likely), but not impossible.

SSBNs and the Future of Nuclear Weapons

The arms control agreements that helped end the Cold War led many to hope that it would not be necessary to replace the systems of mass destruction that had undergirded global nuclear deterrence. And yet now, with hostility between Moscow and Washington reaching a high tide and long-term competition with China seeming inevitable, it appears that a renewal of the instruments of nuclear holocaust appears necessary. At least the Columbias continue to have a sensible strategic logic, unlike the Sentinel ICBM program.

Nevertheless, the construction of these boats promises that the world will continue to live under the threat of nuclear annihilation for the rest of the 21st century, at least.

About the Author: Dr. Robert Farley

Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph. D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020), and most recently Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages (Lynne Rienner, 2023). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money.