Key Points: Russia’s Oreshnik missile, unveiled during a recent strike on Dnipro, has sparked both intrigue and skepticism. Claimed to reach Mach 10 and carry multiple independent warheads, the intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) reportedly evades detection and interception.
-President Vladimir Putin and analysts boast about its mobility, stealth, and potential to bypass NATO defenses. However, questions remain about its mass production and real-world effectiveness, given Russia’s past struggles with advanced military platforms like the T-14 tank and Su-57 fighter.
-While some experts warn it could overwhelm Ukrainian defenses, others see the Oreshnik as another scare tactic in Moscow’s arsenal.
Does Russia’s Oreshnik Missile Live Up to the Hype?
Last month, Russia carried out a strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with a previously unknown missile – which Russia later identified as the Oreshnik.
The attack was described by The Associated Press two weeks ago as “Six huge fireballs pierced the darkness and slammed into the ground at astonishing speed.” Pentagon officials have claimed it is an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), reportedly based on the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and it was able to reach Mach 10 – or roughly 10 times the speed of sound.
During his annual press conference on Thursday, President Vladimir Putin said the Oreshnik “is an advanced weapon, and very new,” while state media outlet Tass reported it has a range of up to approximately 5,500 kilometers (3,400 miles). Putin said with its range and speed, it would be very difficult to shoot down.
“Let us imagine that our system is deployed at a distance of 2,000 kilometers. Even anti-missile systems stationed in Poland would not be able to reach it,” Putin added.
The Russian leader even challenged the West to attempt to counter it.
“Let them choose a target, say, in Kiev, and concentrate their air and missile defense systems there, while we launch an Oreshnik missile at the target. We’ll see what happens. We are ready for such an experiment,” Putin said.”Undetectable” By Spy Satellite
It wasn’t just Putin who boasted of the capabilities of the Oreshnik. Russian military analyst Igor Korotchenko also told Russian state media that if employed, the IRBM would be able to catch an enemy by surprise and that it is even “undetectable” by spy satellites.
Russian mobile missile. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
“A distinctive feature of the medium-range missile system Oreshnik is, firstly, a very short boost phase – the moment of launch, when the missile is just gaining velocity and remains most vulnerable to the impact of various means of interception,” Korotchenko, the editor-in-chief of National Defense magazine, explained. “The launch is carried out from a position unexpectedly for the enemy. Oreshnik boasts high mobility. It is launched with a mobile ground missile system. There is no chance for satellite reconnaissance to identify its location at any given moment, provided a set of essential secrecy and camouflage measures are taken.”
Korotchenko added that the missile heads to near orbit, it separates with multiple warheads while still in its “ballistic trajectory.” As such, it could be difficult to counter.
“Each of the combat units is targeted and carries out the strike independently. Also, it performs an anti-missile maneuver,” the Russian analyst added. “Each warhead is equipped with its own propulsion system, which leaves no chance for interception means – such as the US strategic missile defense system, which could theoretically try to intercept Oreshnik – to calculate the point of interception and neutralize the warhead. This medium-range system – as Vladimir Putin has said, has a range of operation of 5,500 kilometers: its kill zone will spread first and foremost to NATO’s member- countries in Europe.”
Valid Threat from Russia?
It is doubtful Kyiv or the West will take Vladimir Putin up on his challenge, while it is equally unlikely Russia would want to follow through. Russia has largely kept its most advanced systems – including the T-14 Armata main battle tank (MBT) and Sukhoi Su-57 (NATO reporting name Felon) fifth-generation stealth fighter – out of the fight over fears the platforms could underperform.
The Oreshnik might be employed in combat, but Russia certainly wouldn’t want to give any advantage to Kyiv, whereby it could more easily be shot down.
Note: Image is of a generic Russian mobile ICBM.
With that said, the IRBM should still be seen as a weapon that should be met with concern said Justin Crump, CEO and founder of the risk advisory company Sibylline. He recently told BBC Verify that the Oreshnik could have the capacity to seriously challenge Ukraine’s air defenses.
“Russia’s short range ballistic missiles have been one of the more potent threats to Ukraine in this conflict,” warned Crump. “Faster, more advanced systems would increase that an order of magnitude.”
Not So Fast
Ukrainian officials have publicly downplayed the threat – or at least Russia’s ability to mass produce what has the potential to be a terror weapon.
Earlier this week, Anton Gerashchenko, the former Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, wrote on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, “Putin on November 28: ‘Serial production of the Oreshnik complex has already begun.’ Putin on December 16: ‘Serial production of the Oreshnik complex will begin soon.'”
Russia has indeed vowed to “serial produce” the aforementioned T-14 MBT and Su-57 fighter, along with other hardware – only to turn to Iran and North Korea for support. It is unclear if Russian industry has the capacity to increase production of the Oreshnik or how many could be made.
“New weapons systems. Putin: ‘The ‘Oreshnik’ missile system has proven its effectiveness and will enter mass production.’ Translation: People stopped fearing my nuclear threats, so I had to invent something new,” posted Tymofiy Mylovanov, the president of the Kyiv School of Economics, on X.
Topol ICBM. Image: Creative Commons.
As previously reported, Russia may be overstretched and is attempting to employ a “scare tactic” against the West. Anna Borschchevskaya wrote, ” Ukraine, of course, is a prime example of Russia’s escalation tactics. Most recently, Russia’s use of the experimental Oreshnik nuclear-capable missile in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro was a significant escalation. This was meant to scare the West into concessions on Ukraine in response to Biden’s decision to permit Kyiv to fire US-supplied ATACMS missiles into Russia.”
It would appear Kyiv is ready to call Russia’s bluff this time.
Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu is a Senior Editor focusing on defense issues for 19FortyFive. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,500 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on X: @PeterSuciu – and on Bluesky: @petersuciu.bsky.social.
