South Korean Democracy Just Survived a Stress Test: Late Monday night, South Korean President Yoon Seok-Yeol declared martial law. That requires validation by the country’s legislature. A few hours after Yoon’s televised address, the parliament rejected his move unanimously. Yoon then lifted his proclamation What suddenly looked like a national crisis just as suddenly resolved itself before South Koreans went to work the next day.
What Was Yoon Thinking?
It is unclear how far Yoon intended to go. His martial law proclamation targeted the opposition and the media, and banned public political expression. That looks suspiciously like a coup. Yoon also issued his declaration at 10:30 pm, another marker of a coup because much of the country would be asleep at the time.
But if it was a coup, it was a remarkably inept one. Yoon did not tell most of his cabinet. His support among the military and police was soft. The security services deployed at the parliament did little to stop opposition legislators from entering the building, and those MPs quickly overturned martial law in a vote, an obvious move which Yoon should have foreseen.
Just as incompetent was the live broadcasting of events all night. A serious conspiracy would have moved on the media to limit information transmission and begun deploying the military around the country before declaring martial law. Instead, a small pro-Yoon force at the legislature was quickly overwhelmed by a population who saw this occurring in real-time and mobilized in response.
Yoon’s lack of preparation is so apparent, and his plot carried off so clownishly, that it calls into question whether this was, in fact, a coup or some impulsive, bizarre gamble to turn around his struggling presidency.
South Korea’s Democracy Holds Strong
The good news is that South Korea’s institutions held. The legislature moved quickly and, per procedure, voted on martial law. The vote was unanimously opposed, and included legislators from Yoon’s party. The military did not flood the streets and returned to base quickly when martial law was lifted. Similarly, the police did not deploy around the country. South Korean journalists were not cowed. The public rallied on the streets against a perceived threat to democracy. Yoon even kept much of his administration in the dark, fearing they would object. The plotting appears limited to Yoon, the defense minister, and a few long-time cronies. This was not a broad government-wide rejection of constitutionalism.
This stress test of South Korea’s institutions was unwanted but broadly successful. Indeed, it passed this test better than the US passed a similar test on January 6, 2021. That resulted in fatalities, which did not happen in South Korea this week. And Donald Trump, who encouraged the January 6 insurrection, suffered no consequences and just got re-elected to the presidency. By contrast, Yoon is widely expected to either resign in the coming days or be impeached. South Korea conducted a successful impeachment seven years ago. The process went smoothly and without violence. That impeached president went to jail. Yoon likely will, too.
What Happens Next for the ROK?
Given how rapidly this ‘semi-coup’ fell apart, the wider ramifications will be more limited than early fears. The South Korean military will be investigated to determine the depth of its involvement. But there is no apparent constitutional flaw to be fixed. Yoon appears to have made an impulsive, wildly irresponsible decision. There is nothing democracies can do to stop a duly elected president from suddenly acting out. However, a robust democracy can respond, and South Korea did. The end state Yoon sought is unclear – it would be genuinely remarkable if he sought to take South Korea back to the dictatorship of its past. But the country’s institutions moved quickly and aggressively to halt that democratic backsliding. Even Yoon’s own party is backing away from him, not contesting calls for him to resign or be impeached.
The big impact will likely be on market confidence. Foreign investors will have new doubts. The currency, bond market, and stock market will all decline, and have somewhat. But that is a mild price to pay for retaining democratic constitutionalism. South Korean democracy, under pressure for decades by North Korea abroad and by dictators and mediocre presidents at home, has pulled through again.
About the Author: Dr. Robert E. Kelly
Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; RoberEdwinKelly.com) is a professor in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University and a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.
