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Donald Trump’s Biggest Foreign Policy Test: The Axis of Upheaval

DF-15B. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
DF-15B missile from China

Donald Trump is the US president again. While his domestic agenda is fairly clear – he talked relentlessly about immigration and tariffs as a candidate – his foreign policy is seemingly wide open

The broad strokes are known: Trump is friendlier to autocrats than any other American president has been, and he is tough, almost bullying, toward smaller, weaker states, including US partners

However, how Trump will resolve the Ukraine issue, which he promised to fix in one day, is unclear. 

Nor is it clear how he will deal with the significant challenger to the US for the next decades – China

Tariffs will not be enough.

China’s rise is hardly new, but under its current president, Xi Jinping, China has embarked on a much more revisionist, belligerent course

There is much suspicion that China will move against Taiwan in the coming decade. It is unclear how Trump would respond, given his comments about Taiwan in the past. And more broadly, China is the leading member of a potential ‘axis of upheaval.’

The most prominent members of this loose grouping are China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Still, more generally, any dictatorship unhappy with the US-led world order would find compatriots in this group. Should these countries congeal into a genuine bloc or ‘axis,’ it would be a huge challenger to American powers. 

Preventing this is probably the new administration’s most critical foreign policy objective.

Is It An ‘Axis,’ or Just a Gang?

The post-Cold War liberal international order has provoked many illiberal and antidemocratic states. But most of those countries were small or poor or both. States like Venezuela and Syria under now-deposed Bashar al-Assad resented the liberal world economy and American leadership but could do little about it.

These various rogue states just hoped to survive in a hostile world. Former President George W. Bush famously called these holdouts against the liberal order ‘the axis of evil.’ These rogues could survive – ‘regime change’ turned out to be US overreach – but they were isolated and backward-looking. 

China’s rapid rise has given new life to these challengers. Chinese autocracy looked like the past decades ago. 

Still, today, its record of growth and stability is highly attractive to dictatorships hoping to maintain authoritarian rule, resist US dominance, and still achieve economic growth. Beijing has attracted other dissatisfied states, most obviously Russia. 

China almost undoubtedly knew of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intention to invade Ukraine in 2022, and Chinese support – diplomatic and economic – has been crucial in keeping Russia afloat as the war has dragged on. Putin and Xi declared their recent alignment has ‘no limits.’

The remaining axis of evil members is hovering in the background. Islamic Iran has long been a useful proxy for states wishing to challenge the US. As far back as the 1980s, the atheist Soviet Union informally protected that clerical regime from US pressure. North Korea, too is a valuable regional troublemaker. 

Like Iran, North Korea distracts the US in a strategic region, keeping it tied down and distracted. It is now aiding Russian imperialism in Ukraine.

Chinese Funding Required for the Axis

The question for the future is whether this loose gang can congeal into a genuine alliance. That would require a willingness of all members to subvert their interests to a larger, shared program. 

This is possible, and Putin, arguably the most reckless, openly aggressive member of this axis, might accept this. But axis members have prickly relations among themselves. 

North Korea, for example, is wary of Chinese domination, and Russia would have to admit that it is junior to larger, more powerful China.

Indeed, all axis members would have to be willing to accept Chinese bloc leadership because only China is wealthy enough to fund a wide-ranging challenge to the liberal order and its many wealthy states worldwide.

North Korea and Iran are economically weak. High military spending and radical ideology fill in some of that gap, but neither could afford regular, high-tempo military deployments without external support. For all their bluster, neither initiate significant conflicts like the current Ukraine war or a future Chinese attack on Taiwan.

Russia is richer than those rogues, of course, but its economy has fallen out of the world top-ten largest. It is now on a full war footing, which may help it win in Ukraine in the short term, but the medium-term costs will be high. Elevated military spending starves the civilian sector of resources for productive growth, and the sanctions regime on Russia blocks needed future technologies. 

Russian tank firing main gun. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Russian tank firing main gun in Ukraine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Only China, the world’s second-largest GDP, has the financial weight to find these revisionists. But a complete Chinese turn against the liberal international order would end the trade relationships that have fueled its growth for decades. This is the lever Trump should use to keep China from throwing in entirely with Putin’s resistance project.

In this context, Trump’s affection for tariffs is problematic

Severing the Sino-US trade relationship will make it easier for China to align with this axis fully.

About the Author: Dr. Robert Kelly 

Dr. Robert Kelly is a professor of political science at Pusan National University. Kelly is a Contributing Editor to 19FortyFive.

Written By

Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; website) is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University. Dr. Kelly is now a 1945 Contributing Editor as well. 

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. NewYear2025

    January 22, 2025 at 8:39 am

    Trump is far less dangerous (lethal) to the world and far less threatening to world peace than typical recent US democrat presidents.

    He’s also less concerned with axis or axes. Usually only those who’re controlled by the deep state are obsessed with axis and axes, real or imaginary or faked.

    Having said that, it is important for trump to continue fighting globalists, whether they’re wokeist-fascist globalists like joe biden, or unrestrained mercantile globalists like xi jinping.

    Trump must also come down hard on countries that have vastly oversized and overmanned and overstaffed foreign affairs diplomatic corps.

    What are those that so many people for.

    For carrying out various nefarious tasks and shady duties and other totally non-beneficial work.

    Trump is well aware that sending arms and ammo to shady politicians abroad are non-productive and work against real american interests.

    Those things only serve to encourage and push or compel geopolitical rivals to develop newer weapons and rev up the global arms race – Nothing beneficial to american interests. Note pyongyang’s lightning advances in nuclear and rocket and torpedo fields while biden was in office.

    Dividing the world into two camps or axes isn’t good for USA, isn’t good for tomorrow where people prefer to visit Mars not fresh devastated war-scarred landscapes on Earth.

    Still, trump will be president at most for (a max of) just 4 years.

    After that, annuder democrat in white house ??? ??? ???

  2. Swamplaw Yankee

    January 22, 2025 at 8:51 am

    Nice Synopsis: nebulous focus is defined.
    Clearly, Foreign policy was not defined in the Trump campaign. Yes, the MSM could have worked on definition, but chose to misplace its time into defending the Arabella Cabal.
    Trump inherits bad positions from the Democrats particularly on the Middle East sphere. Particularly from the Obama brain trust. In 2013-14 the democrats + their dark state gave away Ukrainian land for free. The MIS of Erdogen and FSB of the orc muscovites outplayed the snoozers in the US State department. The orc muscovites obtained the Ukrainian soil of the Crimea for free. That sleep changed the geostrategy of the middle east. The old ploy worked as well as in 1922. Then the Smyrna genocide ensured an illegally occupied Anatolia. The USA stood yards away and did nothing to save this old Christian land. Now, the USA is sleep walking the Cyprus takeover for 50 years.
    The covert OK from the Yankees gave orc muscovites the green light to enlarge their naval canal access from the Caspian sea right to the safety of the MIS. Millions of tons of freight or men can be economically moved to supply the new Syria. Or, Gog can supply military supplies economically to eliminate Israel.
    The Trump USA foreign policy must change this failed geostrategy Now.
    The Trump Demand must be that illegally occupied Ukrainian soil is returned in full, immediately, with the proviso that the USA initiates the concept of Fortress Europe in the Crimea.
    The EU, Israel and NATO must erect a long term fortress in Crimea/ Sevastopol. Yes, erect and fund a long-term fulcrum that defends WESTERN interests.
    Or Trump must clean up the mess with the Erdogen control of Turkey. Who is pretending that the WEST has bases they control inside of Turkey? Once the MIS of Erdogen kicks out the pretend NATO bases inside Turkey, the WEST is left with what geostrategy if the orc muscovites retain their free no-cost gift of Crimea from the Yankees.
    Trump must make the historic move to save the Jewish faithful inside of Israel from the intentions of Gog. This new FORTRESS EUROPE will control the long term water access by Gog to the shores of Israel.
    Or, Trump informs Israel that they slept away their chance in 2014 to prevent the illegal occupation of the Crimea by their enemy. Trump must inform the adherants to the Jewish faith, that while faithful, he will direct the USA to do much of nothing when Gog attacks. Trump can review the actions of the USA in 1922 when the Christians of Smyna felt the long sharp sword blades of Gog, while the Yankee military stood by and listened to the wailing.
    Trump might wish to reference that God made this attack by Gog on the Jewish faithful clear in the Bible.
    And, who is Trump, or Americans, to save the Ukraine and Israel? Clarify the new Trump foreign policy off the bat.

  3. Jim

    January 22, 2025 at 11:50 am

    Yes, China is the strongest nation-state which objects to aspects of United States foreign policy.

    Principally, China objects to the idea the United States can renege on its commitments to the ‘One China’ policy which you can read on the Department of State’s official website.

    Our official policy is that we agree Taiwan is part of China, but the process of integrating Taiwan into China must be peaceful and gradual over time. How much time? That’s never been defined and causes the rub with China.

    Why do I spend time on Taiwan? Because Taiwan being part of China is an existential issue for the leaders of China, but also, the Chinese People, themselves, and this in large part drives China’s militarism.

    Take Taiwan out of the conflict equation vis a vis the United States openly reaffirming Taiwan being part of China, and you take away a major reason for the need to have such a large military commitment.

    Chinese leaders chant, “Taiwan, Taiwan, Taiwan” and any misgivings about military spending melts away.

    The United States should not play into the hands of Chinese militarists… who itch to punch the ‘foreign devils’ in the mouth over perceived wrongs going back to the colonial era in China.

    What we don’t want to do is drive a series of countries to rally around each other in opposition to our foreign policy.

    Actions cause reactions… cause and effect… seemingly the foreign policy establishment never seems to get it.

  4. NewYear2025

    January 22, 2025 at 1:03 pm

    Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on china and russia, Perhaps now is the time to restart nuclear tests.

    Restarting nuclear tests is the best way to deal with a guy who’s strong on bluster, but always ready to make a u-turn. Especially midway.

    Don’t engage in talkback or exchanging verbal threats though the ‘global media’ or official ‘spokesmen’ because a person who relies heavily on bluster relishes such type of exchanges.

    You need concrete action backed by good homecwork.

    Besides restarting nuclear tests, start working on military spaceplanes and FOBS tests. Immediately.

    Also, apart from energetic frequent FOBS test launches, start building underground cities and undergound nuclear shelters.

    They are totally vital to face US presidents after donald trump’s time has passed by.

    Remember Rev chapter 18.
    Read, read, and reread it FOR INSPIRATION.

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