Former President Donald Trump’s return to the White House and his proposed 25 percent tariffs on imports would present Canada with one of its most significant trade challenges in decades.
Unlike previous U.S. protectionist moves, which Canada managed through negotiation and targeted retaliation, a second Trump presidency could be more unpredictable, requiring a far more strategic and adaptive response.
What Will Canada Do?
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will likely fall back on his familiar “Team Canada” approach, an effort to present a united political front and seek exemptions through diplomatic channels.
This strategy, used during the NAFTA renegotiations and past tariff disputes, emphasizes leveraging political and business ties in the U.S. to mitigate the impact of protectionist measures.
However, this approach has inherent weaknesses.
The political landscape in Washington is shifting, and a second Trump administration may be less receptive to traditional Canadian lobbying.
Unlike in 2018, when Canada found allies in Congress and the business community to push back against tariffs, Trump 2.0 might double down on economic nationalism regardless of pushback from American industries.
Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford has already signaled a more confrontational response, threatening to cut off Ontario’s electricity exports to key northern U.S. states if tariffs are imposed.
Given Ontario’s central role in North American automotive and manufacturing supply chains, Ford sees a strategic advantage in using economic leverage to deter U.S. trade actions. His stance reflects growing frustration that Canada has relied too much on diplomacy without deploying its own economic tools aggressively.
What Could Happen
However, this hardline approach carries risks—it could escalate tensions, provoke further retaliation, and disrupt industries that depend on cross-border trade.
Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith, on the other hand, has taken a starkly different approach. Rather than using energy as a retaliatory weapon, Smith argues for maintaining stable oil and gas exports to the U.S., emphasizing the importance of long-term market stability.
Her stance reflects Alberta’s deep integration into North American energy networks and a recognition that energy disruptions could hurt Canada as much as they hurt the U.S. Smith’s strategy also underscores a key reality: despite tensions, the U.S. remains Canada’s largest energy customer, and any retaliatory action must be carefully calculated.
The divide between Ford and Smith presents a fundamental challenge for Trudeau. If Canada is to respond effectively, it must find a way to reconcile these competing provincial approaches while presenting a unified national strategy.
This will not be easy. Ford’s aggressive stance appeals to those who believe Canada has been too soft on past U.S. trade measures, while Smith’s measured approach highlights the risks of escalating an economic conflict with its largest trading partner.
Meanwhile, business leaders across Canada are urging the federal government to focus on long-term strategies, including deeper trade diversification and strengthening supply chain resilience.
Canada: Time to Take a Strategic Approach to Tariffs
Canada’s response must go beyond reactionary measures.
A well-calibrated approach should involve targeted retaliation—focusing on key U.S. industries that rely on Canadian exports—while simultaneously working to reinforce trade ties with alternative partners in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.
The Trudeau government must also double down on domestic investments in critical industries to reduce dependence on American supply chains.
A Trump tariff escalation would be a defining moment for Canada’s economic future. While Ford’s hardline approach and Smith’s more cautious stance may appear to be in conflict, both highlight the urgent need for Canada to assert itself more decisively in trade policy.
President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks at the 450th mile of the new border wall Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2021, near the Texas Mexico border. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
The lesson from past disputes is clear: Canada cannot rely on diplomacy alone.
If Trump follows through on his tariffs, Canada must respond with a mix of strategic retaliation, aggressive lobbying within the U.S., and an accelerated push for economic diversification.
The time for complacency is over.
About the Author: Andrew Latham
Andrew Latham is a non-resident fellow at Defense Priorities and a professor of international relations and political theory at Macalester College in Saint Paul, MN. Andrew is now a Contributing Editor to 19FortyFive.
bobb
January 17, 2025 at 4:39 pm
Donald trump is not finished yet with canada. Not anytime soon.
During his first term he squeezed trudeau with threats of tariffs and was overheard saying he intended not to Let the northerners have anything to negotiate over.
Into the second round or second confrontation, trump isn’t going to Let trudeau get off scot free.
He will again squeeze trudeau until he flees from his job thereby allowing trump to declare victory.
After that, US will be allowed to get a handsome discount on future purchases of canadian petroleum and natural gas.
Trudeau will be left wondering What went wrong in the first place. Well, time for a drink or two of imported cognac.
NewYear2025
January 17, 2025 at 6:02 pm
Incoming US president donald trump seens to have a soft spot for political strongman and a clear disdain for weak people.
Trump is having phone calls with xi jinping of china even though he wants big tariffs put on china on the first day.
Trump instead needs to advise xi to step down as xi is the joe biden of china.
On the other hand, trump is targeting head-on canada’s justin trudeau who he sees as a duckling weakling.
Trudeau made a mistake early on when he didn’t visit trump regularly in washington during the first term.
If trudeau had persisted like an elk tick or tropical leech trump would now have very great respect for him.
Instead trudeau missed the boat because he couldn’t see the big pine forest due to the various lawn trees in canada.
Bruce Dunne
January 17, 2025 at 6:18 pm
There has never, ever been a “Team Canada” approach to Provincial and/or Federal industry trade issues between Canada and other world wide nations under the current Liberal/NDP Federal government during the term of our narcissistic and psychotic prime minister.
In fact he, the psychotic little putz, Freeland and Carney are avowed and confirmed participants in destroying Canada’s economic and democratic way of life on behalf of the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the UN World Health Organization (WHO). Their complete and full intention is to subject Canada’s citizens to dominate “control” for their own self-serving reasons.
The Provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan have been subjected to psychological dominance control efforts by the Federal Government in an effort to “control” the financial and business success of the two Provinces through draconian and abusive legislation.
All of these efforts in spite of the well documented fact that these two Provinces generate approximately seventy-five percent of Canada’s gross national trade income.
Thankfully Premier Smith in Alberta and Premier Moe in Saskatchewan are strong enough to stand up and finally say “NO” to the rest of the Provincial and Federal government “leaches” who have done absolutely nothing over the past many years other then to suck off the Western Canada financial teat.
Those days are over.
Personally, I would prefer that Canada stay together as a Nation, but if push were to come to shove, then Alberta, Saskatchewan and hopefully Manitoba will leave Confederation and join together as a successful Nation. These three Provinces have all of the natural resources, persons and infrastructure to survive quite nicely. As ex-Alberta Premier Ralph Klein (now deceased) once said, “Let the Eastern bastards freeze in the dark.”
pagar
January 17, 2025 at 8:14 pm
Canada unlikely to fight back unlike boisterous china.
Thus in 2025, trump will shove canada aside and concentrate on beijing.
China is sending han zheng to trump’s inauguration day.
Who’s han zheng.
He’s just a nobody or a voiceless guy or stiff in an empty suit.
Thus trump is likely to be offended by such a person present when he’s making big speeches on jan 20 2025.
After shoving canada to one side, trump will pore over the list of goods subject to new tariffs.
Canada’s list of tariffs items could be relatively minor compared to those of others.
Tig
January 18, 2025 at 12:21 am
Before the chest thumping gets too loud, remember that the consumer (yep, YOU) is the one who ultimately pays the higher price tag thanks to tariffs. Anyways, carry on. Nothing to see here. Russian troll bot response in 5, 4, 3, 2…
securocrat
January 18, 2025 at 3:22 pm
If trump strictly applys or lays down his tariff agenda, nothing can save ottawa.
That’s because canada has no securocrat (new word I recently picked up) to stand up for his country against the power-powerful US white house.
So now that leaves ordinary canadians to do the job of picking up the shovel.
Because there is simply no leader in ottawa today with a backbone and certainly no securocrat with a national spine either.
Perhaps now is THE TIME for canada to establish its own deep state or shadow agency consisting of serving military and intelligence bureaucrats with hidden links to media owners and commodities moguls and oil and gas brokers.
The military and intelligence people have to be protected by a bill assuring full anonymity (in case of a stink suddenly arising) by politicians on parliament hill.
Possessing its own deep state, Canada will finally or at last have the means to fight back against foreign demagogues.
For example, to the gaza people, Joe biden is a demagogue, a particularly dangerous and murderous one, working freely on behalf of the IDF.