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Smart Bombs: Military, Defense and National Security

Is the Age of the Submarine Over?

Taigei-Class Submarine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Taigei-Class Submarine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Key Points and Summary: While some experts fear new technology could render the modern submarines obsolete, at least for now, those fears seem unfounded. Submarines are more relevant than ever, anchoring geopolitical strategies amid great-power competition.

-The AUKUS agreement highlights their importance, granting Australia nuclear-powered subs to bolster its regional presence.

-Meanwhile, China is rapidly expanding its submarine fleet, with advanced Jin- and Shang-class vessels enhancing its A2/AD capabilities and nuclear deterrence.

-The U.S. and Russia remain leaders in submarine technology, fielding cutting-edge Virginia-, Columbia-, Yasen-, and Borei-class subs.

-With unmatched stealth, range, and versatility, submarines are indispensable for global power projection, intelligence gathering, and maintaining a credible nuclear second-strike capability, ensuring their central role in global security for decades to come.

Submarines in Geopolitics: Why They Remain Indispensable in the 21st Century

Submarines remain one of the most relevant platforms in geopolitics today, underscoring their critical role in defense, deterrence, and power projection. As nations navigate an era of renewed great-power competition and regional tensions, investments in advanced submarine technology have surged, reflecting their enduring strategic value.

The AUKUS agreement, China’s growing naval capabilities, and the sophisticated fleets maintained by the United States and Russia are certainly compelling evidence of submarines’ continued geopolitical importance — despite advances in underwater detection methods.

Tripartite AUKUS Agreement 

The AUKUS pact, signed between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, highlights the geopolitical emphasis on submarine technology in the Indo-Pacific. Under this auspices of the agreement, the United States passed along the crown jewels of their nuclear deterrence for just the second time.

Canberra acquiring American nuclear-powered submarines will be a significant strategic step for Australia. Thanks to their anticipated nuclear propulsion, Australian AUKUS submarines will allow the country to patrol its significant borders and also enable Australia to be a player in the region’s balance of power. 

China and Submarines

China, on the other hand, has rapidly advanced its naval capabilities, particularly its submarine fleet. Beijing’s investments in advanced submarines, such as the Type 094 Jin-class and Type 093 Shang-class nuclear-powered vessels, are a reflection of an ambition to secure maritime interests and project power.

These submarines play a dual role: supporting China’s “anti-access/area denial” (A2/AD) strategy in the South and East China Seas, as well as enhancing its nuclear deterrence capabilities.

Los-Angeles Class Submarine

Los-Angeles Class USS Annapolis.

Cold War 2.0?

At the same time, both the United States and Russia continue to lead in submarine technology. The U.S. Navy’s Virginia-class and upcoming Columbia-class submarines are perhaps on the bleeding edge of underwater submarine technology and combine stealth, firepower, and multi-mission versatility.

Similarly, Russia’s Yasen-class and Borei-class submarines maintain formidable capabilities, particularly in strategic nuclear deterrence.

These fleets underscore the central role submarines play in ensuring national security, global power projection, and keeping a second-strike capability credible.

Submarines offer unique advantages that make them indispensable for geopolitical strategy. Nuclear-powered submarines have virtually unlimited range due to their nuclear propulsion systems, allowing them to operate far from home ports for extended periods. This capability makes them essential for countries seeking to maintain a global presence or deter adversaries.

Unlike surface ships or aircraft, submarines are nearly impossible to detect via satellite, providing unparalleled stealth. Modern subs, equipped with advanced sound-dampening technologies and operating virtually silently, are extraordinarily difficult to track, even with the most sophisticated sonar systems.

US Navy Los-Angeles Attack Submarine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

US Navy Los-Angeles Attack Sub. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

This invisibility allows them to carry out a wide range of missions, from intelligence gathering to deploying special operations forces and launching missiles, without detection.

Their ability to remain hidden also makes submarines critical components of nuclear deterrence. Ballistic missile sub (known by their acronym as SSBNs) can patrol vast expanses of the ocean practically undetected, ensuring that a second-strike capability is always available. This stealthy and survivable platform is a cornerstone of strategic stability, particularly for nuclear-armed countries like the United States and Russia.

In the current geopolitical climate, submarines are arguably the cornerstone upon which countries like the United States, France, Great Britain, Russia, China, and now Australia are enforcing their geopolitical bedrock.

Their relevance now and long into the future is without question for some time to come, barring any generational advancements in submarine design or anti-sub warfare.

About the Author: Caleb Larson 

Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.

Written By

Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war's civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe.

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