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Is the Democratic Republic of Congo the New Venezuela?

AK-47. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
AK-47. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

When Hugo Chávez became Venezuela’s president’s in 1999, he spoke the language of democracy and promised a “Magna Charta for the new era.” President Bill Clinton took a wait-and-see approach to Chávez. He sent his Energy Secretary Bill Richardson, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, who liked what he saw. ”He set a good tone for a very ambitious agenda,” Mr. Richardson said. ”It’s a good start in the American-Venezuelan relationship.”

It was not, of course. Chávez used the United States as a foil to distract Venezuelans as he transformed Venezuela economically toward kleptocratic socialism and pivoted the country’s foreign policy toward leftist, Islamist, and rejectionist regimes. Even after his 2013 death, Venezuela under successor Nicolás Maduro continued Chávez’s drive leftward. 

Today, Venezuela competes with Cuba and Nicaragua to be the most left-leaning country in the Western hemisphere. Freedom House ranks Venezuela just above Russia in its annual global freedom rankings, but lower in terms of political rights. Transparency International ranks Venezuela as the second most corrupt countries on earth, below North Korea and surpassed only by Somalia.

On January 10, 2025, Maduro took his oath to begin his third presidential term. Most international observers called Maduro’s claim of victory illegitimate. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the election “deeply flawed, yielding an announced outcome that does not represent the will of the Venezuelan people.” Even the Carter Center found the July 2024 elections to be without credibility.

Many Western countries boycotted Maduro’s ceremony. Chinese President Xi Jinping sent Wang Dongming, his special envoy and vice chairperson of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, to represent the People’s Republic of China. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel attended in person, and so too did Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega. The rest of Latin America’s leaders stayed home. The Islamic Republic felicitated Maduro on an election victory that appears to have surpassed even Iran’s in terms of election fraud. Russian President Vladimir Putin sent Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of the Duma, as his representative to the festivities. Joining the rogue’s gallery was Anthony Tshisekedi, the son of Democratic Republic of Congo President Félix Tshisekedi.

The first Trump administration affirmed Tshisekedi’s 2018 election despite widespread indication that he had lost to challenger Martin Fayulu by a large margin. Michael Hammer, the U.S. ambassador in Kinshasa, repeatedly promoted Tshisekedi as a partner and a new type of leader for the Democratic Republic of Congo. It was a typical example of Foggy Bottom calibrating policy toward wishful thinking rather than actuality. In reality, Tshisekedi continued the pattern of his predecessors: corruption, ethnic incitement to distract Congolese from his failures, and nationalist bluster and threats of war. Tshisekedi interpreted Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s decision to accept a move by the UN Security Council to lift Kinshasa’s reporting requirements as a greenlight to purchase tens of millions of dollars of Chinese drones, sniper rifles, and other military goods.

Today, a war between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda seems increasingly likely fueled by Tshisekedi’s belief that top-shelf hardware is more important than a well-trained army. Tshisekedi meanwhile openly discusses changing the constitution to allow himself an illegal third term and perhaps rule for life. So much for the promise of democracy.

As with all tinpot dictators, family matters. That Tshisekedi sent his son to Caracas is the best indication to date that he has joined the axis of resistance and the coterie of countries seeking to end the post-World War II liberal order.

Normally, Donald Trump might dismiss what happens in Congo as events in a “sh-thole country” not worthy of U.S. time. He would be wrong. The Democratic Republic of Congo holds at least $24 trillion in mineral wealth and provides most of the world’s cobalt, necessary for lithium batteries. In short, Congo could be to the 21st century economy what Saudi Arabia was to the 20th century economy.

Today, Tshisekedi follows the path set by Maduro and openly celebrates the Venezuelan dictator’s illegal third term. The danger is not just the missed potential of democracy and good governance in Congo, nor China’s solidifying its position in the country.

Nor is it the growth of an Islamic State affiliate attracted by Congo’s rich resources, corruption and poor security. Rather, the issue is that the Democratic Republic of Congo, Africa’s second largest country by both geography and population and bordering nine different countries could, like Venezuela, seek to export its instability throughout the continent.  

Sometimes a handshake is not just a handshake. Anthony Tshisekedi’s meeting with Maduro is a shot across the bow that the new Trump administration cannot afford to ignore.

About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin

Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics. The author’s views are his own. 

Written By

Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics.

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