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Donald Trump’s Biggest Foreign Policy Challenge: Russia

Russia's Mobile Nuclear Weapons. Image Credit: Russian Federation.
Russia's Mobile Nuclear Weapons. Image Credit: Russian Federation.

Until President-elect Donald Trump created an unexpected spectacle in the news media by suggesting that Washington coerce Denmark to sell Greenland to the United States and compel Panama to return control of the canal to Washington, most speculation about the new administration’s foreign policy centered around Trump’s likely stance on the Ukraine war. On one occasion, Trump himself boasted that he could bring an end to the bloody fighting between Ukraine and Russia within 24 hours.

Such a claim was a bit much, even by the standards of Donald Trump’s grandiose ego. 

Nevertheless, Trump and his advisers probably do want to put the U.S.-NATO proxy war against Russia in the rearview mirror. Such a desire is quite logical. The Ukraine mission has drained financial resources from the United States and its European allies, fostered internal policy and political divisions, and become a factor in the electoral debacles that several Western incumbent governments have experienced.

Fostering a peace accord between Moscow and Kyiv would benefit U.S. foreign policy as well as end a tragic bloodletting in Ukraine. Joe Biden’s administration, as well as its supporters in Congress and the establishment news media, have contributed greatly to the tragedy. Ukraine’s Western admirers continue to encourage the delusions of the Kyiv regime that it can eventually prevail and drive all Russian forces out of the country. The Trump administration needs to dispel that fantasy once and for all.

But helping to end the Ukraine war must be just the first step in a new U.S. policy to repair Washington’s overall economic and geostrategic relationship with Russia. For years, the United States has been drifting into a situation that multiplies adversaries and encourages new layers of collaboration among that growing roster of adversaries. The probable outcome of such a process is potentially disastrous.

Terminating the revived cold war with Russia is a crucial initial step away from that nightmare scenario. An assortment of blundering, needlessly hostile and provocative steps by the United States and its NATO allies were primarily responsible for the current confrontation with Moscow. Moreover, contrary to the largely partisan myth that Trump was Vladimir Putin’s “puppet,” he was as guilty as any of the other White House occupants of antagonizing Moscow during his previous term.

Indeed, in one respect—nuclear arms control—Trump exceeded the damage to relations with Russia inflicted by his contemporaries.  During his time in the White House, the United States withdrew from both the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and the Open Skies Agreement. His actions significantly increased bilateral tensions in the most dangerous arena of all—strategic nuclear weapons.  Trump’s actions also paved the way for another worrisome development regarding atomic weapons during the Biden administration—the weakening of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. 

In September 1996, the United States and other powers signed that agreement, which covered underground tests as well as atmospheric tests that had been barred by a 1963 treaty.  Russia ratified the new comprehensive ban on nuclear tests in June 2000. However, a succession of U.S. administrations, including those headed by Trump and Biden, declined to submit the document to the Senate for ratification. Moscow, growing more and more impatient with Washington’s delay, began threatening to rescind its ratification. The Russian government finally carried out that threat in November 2023. Moscow’s action, although understandable, further escalated tensions with Washington.

Addressing the deterioration in the nuclear arms control system is one example of why the Trump administration needs to go beyond helping to end the war between Ukraine and Russia. It is an alarming situation when two countries possessing thousands of nuclear weapons have eliminated most of the diplomatic restraints that had created a significantly safer strategic environment beginning in the 1980s. Since the United States was responsible for the myopic decisions that have so damaged the nuclear arms control system, Washington needs to take the initiative to repair the damage U.S. leaders have inflicted.

Another critical step in fostering a rapprochement with Russia is for Washington to lift the array of economic sanctions it has imposed over the years in retaliation for the Kremlin’s actions against Ukraine. The new administration also should press its European allies to terminate the economic penalties on Moscow that they have leveled individually or through the European Union.  

All of these moves would signal to Putin and Russia’s entire political elite that Washington and its allies were abandoning the ill-advised strategy of trying to weaken and humiliate Russia.  That approach has not worked well in any case. Expanding NATO eastward to incorporate the remnants of the Soviet Union’s defunct empire has backfired spectacularly.  It conveyed the message to Russian leaders that the West would not permit their country to have even a modest security zone, much less a broader sphere of influence

Putin Russia

President of Russia Vladimir Putin Meeting with members of the Government (via videoconference).

In other words, the United States emphasized that Russia would never be treated as a respected great power. The final showdown came regarding Ukraine.  

That confrontation has damaged Russia’s economy to some extent, but Moscow has successfully found many new markets (especially energy markets) to replace those that U.S.-led sanctions eliminated. The principal impact of the U.S.-NATO policies has been to re-direct Moscow’s economic and military orientation eastward. The largest beneficiary of that shift has been China.  It is hard to imagine how any competent U.S. leader might think that such a change would be in the best interests of the United States. 

Instead of belatedly adopting a more conciliatory approach during its final months in office, though, the lame duck Biden administration chose to impose yet a new round of sanctions as well as authorizing Ukraine to use longer-range U.S. missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia.

The Trump administration needs to commence a comprehensive policy change to repair relations with Russia. To do so, Trump must ignore (or scorn) a new round of predictable smears that he is Putin’s puppet. Equally important, he will need to acknowledge responsibility for his missteps during his first term that contributed to the deterioration of America’s crucial bilateral relationship with Russia.

President of the United States Donald Trump speaking at the 2017 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland. Image Credit: Gage Skidmore.

President of the United States, Donald Trump, speaking at the 2017 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland. Image Credit: Gage Skidmore.

About the Author: Dr. Ted Galen Carpenter 

Dr. Ted Galen Carpenter is a columnist for 19FortyFive and a senior fellow at the Randolph Bourne Institute and the Libertarian Institute. He also served in various senior policy positions during a 37-year career at the Cato Institute. Dr. Carpenter is the author of 13 books and more than 1,300 articles on defense, foreign policy and civil liberties issues.  His latest book is Unreliable Watchdog: The News Media and U.S. Foreign Policy (2022).

Written By

Dr. Ted Galen Carpenter is a columnist for 19FortyFive and a senior fellow at the Randolph Bourne Institute and the Libertarian Institute. He also served in various senior policy positions during a 37-year career at the Cato Institute. Dr. Carpenter is the author of 13 books and more than 1,300 articles on defense, foreign policy and civil liberties issues. His latest book is Unreliable Watchdog: The News Media and U.S. Foreign Policy (2022).

10 Comments

10 Comments

  1. Z3R0

    January 18, 2025 at 8:04 pm

    Putin’s obsessive drive to dominate Ukraine is making Russia increasingly dependent on and vulnerable to China. Neither the West nor the Russian people desire that. Be sensible, Putin, take your winnings (and losses), and strike a bargain that we all can live with. At this point, persisting on your present course is mostly making Russia weaker.

  2. securocrat

    January 18, 2025 at 8:26 pm

    Donald trump’s biggest or most nightmarish foreign policy (FP) challenge isn’t russia or china or iran or north korea, BUT the dark conglomerate of securocrats in washington.

    (Securocrat being a new word I just recently picked up.)

    Who are those people.

    As trump himself once said, “The enemy is within.”

    Securocrats are those fascisto big cats in US who think that every country that doesn’t provide bases and facilities for the hallowed US military is a nail that needs to get the DoD and State Dept hammer.

    The securocrats in washington have been enjoying a field day throughout the 4 years joe biden was in the oval office.

    That’s why joe biden is now fully responsible for the unraveling of the world order and world peace and harmony.

    Thus for advancing peace and order outside the US, trump must first crush all the securocrats and their democrats ally in washington.

    After that, crush their allies in europe like the very dastardly macron and zelenskyy and baerbock.

  3. JingleBells

    January 19, 2025 at 1:29 am

    Donald trump in his second shoo-in as 47th US president is expected to adopt a more mature and practical and safe and sane foreign policy policy compared to hell genocide Joe.

    Hell genocide Joe has his arms coated with the blood of innocent humans.

    Genocide Joe is so horrible he ain’t destined for anything except only the fiery lakes of the netherworld.

  4. megiddo

    January 19, 2025 at 7:58 am

    Trump’s biggest challenge after jan 20 2025 is deciding what to do with the horse dung helmed by zelenskyy.

    Latest reports say russian troops have entered the town of pokrovsk which is the linchpin of Horse Dung’s frontline defense in donbass.

    Without joe biden to provide support, zelenskyy is finished, kaput and totally gone case. So is Horse Dung.

    So What to do with that dung.

  5. Swamplaw Yankee

    January 19, 2025 at 8:16 am

    This fifth column example is shocking. Where is the long term legal action that exposes this genocide apologist?
    One must turn this Orc Muscovite genocide plunderer lover’s advice 180 degrees.
    The Trump regime must immediately atone with the Ukrainian people. All economic moves by the Trump regime must contemplate that Ukraine is the new BEST partner for the West.
    Trump must demand and/or reclaim the Ukrainian Lands asap. Ukrainian soil must be used for the new Fortress Europe that Trump must initiate and promote in the Crimea/Sevastopol.
    Otherwise Trump is approving the theft of Land from Israel. Israel must wake up and demand participation in the new Fortress Europe. Otherwise Gog and Putin’s muscovite orcs overwhelm the observant Jewish people and asap.
    Carpenter should move into the Kim Philby apartment where the orc muscovites can regale him.
    Trump can rip the gravitational time warp with the way he wields the sharp blade edge of history on January 20. Or, the world observes Trump apply healing balm as the Orc muscovite empire is diminished and ethnic slave nations are liberated.
    By the way, China is quite involved as 12000 Chinese vassals from North Korea were sent by the Han empire to kill Ukrainians.

    Trump

  6. Jim

    January 19, 2025 at 9:57 am

    I agree the biggest challenge is Russia because Ukraine policy has been such a complete failure.

    Can the United States repair the strategic mistake of pushing Russia into China’s waiting arms in violation of Mackinder 101 and Kissinger’s policy of keeping Russia and China divided, so not to create a ‘World Island’ of hostile powers on the Euro-Asian landmass?

    The damage is severe to America’s national interest.

    The militaristic diehards will never admit this.

    They wanted to grab the “brass ring” of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia… how did that work out?

    Pulling Russia apart from China or vice versa will be three times as hard as keeping them divided in the first place.

    But that’s where we are… though, I suspect some militarists relish and envision the idea of taking on Russia and China together.

    This is nihilism in the extreme… and shows how deluded many militarists are regarding the American People’s national interest.

    Frankly, it’s hard to see how the damage is undone.

    Perhaps, emphasizing Russians are culturally closer to the West than with China.

    But the militarists made a hash of that possibility.

    Creative diplomatic initiative… militarists aren’t inclined in this direction at all.

    All they got is a hammer (military action) and every problem (a country aligned against the U. S.) is a nail to be struck.

    This attitude will lead America to disaster, isolation, and eventual defeat… or nuclear armageddon.

    Surely, we can be more thoughtful than that.

  7. Webej

    January 19, 2025 at 4:50 pm

    Congratulations.
    This was the first article I ever read on 19fortyfive that even points in the right general direction.

    One caveat:
    » not permit their country to have even a modest security zone, much less a broader sphere of influence «

    It’s not so much about a sphere of influence (The American sphere is the entire globe). It’s about sovereignty and integrity itself. American policy since 1904 has been about extinguishing Russian sovereignty and balkanizing the territory, and it still is, even if they prefer doing so by parasitic infection from within. No peace can possibly take root as long as the warmonger and capitalist party do not give up their grandiose ambitions. Russians now finally realize that they are fighting for their very existence as a nation.

  8. Z3R0

    January 20, 2025 at 8:40 am

    China is a much bigger problem.

    As long as China buys Russian energy and supplies the Russian Army, Russia will be able to continue its war on Ukraine.

    China is also a global threat by corrupting foreign governments with control over key terrain and resources and settling colonies of people in them that China can then police, coerce, and control for its own purposes.

  9. The Voice of Reason

    January 20, 2025 at 2:01 pm

    This is not a challenge. This is a self resolving problem.

    Stop paying Ukraine and watch the problem go away.

    Russia will be consumed for the next generation rebuilding Ukraine (making the Russian Empire great again).

    Putin will pass in that time.

    Russia will be looking to hedge its China relationship after that.

    For America, this is a no brainer.

    If you’re Britain’s elite though though, gonna be a long 20 years.

  10. George

    January 21, 2025 at 6:11 am

    You forget that Trump leaves in four years. There are far too many Russo-phobes to keep the Cold War going on forever after he leaves and Putin knows it. Americans will always at war with Russia because they’ve been taught to do so by the Mackinderists.

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