In May 2023, Donald Trump suggested that if re-elected, he could end the Ukraine War in just one day. While the Russian government suggested that might be optimistic, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly opened the door to negotiations. Just two weeks ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested he was willing to meet “anytime” with President-elect Donald Trump for “negotiations and compromises” about ending the Ukraine war. Trump, to his credit, said he would not abandon Ukraine.
The outlines of Trump’s plan slowly coming into focus as his aides float trial balloons and portions leak: NATO would delay Ukrainian membership for decades, if not permanently. European troops would patrol a buffer zone. Trump would likely cut Ukraine off from some of the advanced weaponry and longer-range missiles it needs to take its fight into Russia, let alone hold Russian troops at bay.
Russia’s Ukraine Strategy, Explained
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has already thrown cold water on the possibility of a negotiated settlement, saying Russia is “not satisfied.” Lavrov is known for bluster. Trump, his advisors, and many diplomats likely dismiss Lavrov’s comments as posturing before serious talks.
In this case, however, Lavrov means what he says.
At issue is Russia’s decision this past week to end the Minsk Group. Initially, the Minsk Group was formed in 1992 as a construct of the Commission [now Organization] for Security and Cooperation in Europe to create a mechanism to end the first Nagorno-Karabakh War, at the time, the bloodiest conflict between two former Soviet states. The structure of the Minsk Group was simple: Diplomats from Russia, France, and the United States co-chaired sessions, while Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Finland, and Turkey served as permanent members.
While the Minsk Group did not fulfill its objectives of finding a diplomatic solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh disputes, a broader array of diplomats across Europe and the former Soviet Union soon found other value in it: Even as tensions grew between Russia and the United States, French, Russian, and American diplomats met regularly through the Minsk process without histrionics. Until Azerbaijan’s invasion and ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh, the co-chairs helped manage and even resolve small crises by providing a neutral forum for discussion.
It was this factor that led some American diplomats to believe that the Minsk framework could enable talks between Russia and the United States in an established mechanism. Ukraine could easily substitute for Azerbaijan to create a permanent structure in which Russian, Ukrainian, and American diplomats could exchange messages daily.
Azerbaijan, of course, has no interest in continuing the Minsk process, having seized Nagorno-Karabakh by force. For Azerbaijani dictator Ilham Aliyev, the Minsk Group’s existence poses a threat since busybody diplomats might begin to discuss the return of Armenian Christians to the region in which they lived for 1,700 years until last year. On December 25, 2024, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova agreed with Aliyev and opined that the Minsk Group should dissolve.
The Ukraine War Looks Likely to Drag On…
Should her pronouncement become reality—and it likely will if the Russia permanently withdraws from the group—then the best chance to have the quiet, back channel negotiations outside the public eye goes with it. When it comes to prospects for a negotiated settlement, the Minsk Group is the canary in the coal mine.
Msta-S in Ukraine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
While it is possible to negotiate over honest disputes and resolve grievances, enmity based on ideology is another thing entirely. In 2021, Putin penned an article for a Kremlin journal fundamentally questioning the existence of a Ukrainian people and Ukraine’s right to exist. His speeches immediately before and on the day of his invasion reinforced these points.
Putin may be cynical, but he does have core beliefs, Ukraine’s illegitimacy chief among them. By removing the mechanisms to negotiate as Trump promises to end necessary weapons supplies to Ukraine, Putin ensures Russia’s war of attrition will continue.
The war might cost hundreds of thousands more Russian and Ukrainian lives, but Putin still believes he can outlast Ukraine. For the Russian dictator, the price is worth it.
About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin
Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics. The author’s views are his own.
