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The Russian Air Force Is Running Out of Planes for the War in Ukraine

Russia Su-34
Russian Air Force Su-34 Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Key Points and Summary: The Russian Air Force is suffering significant losses in the Ukraine war, despite claims of minimal impact by some US officials.

-While Russia initially aimed for a quick victory, the prolonged conflict has resulted in heavy losses of aircraft, including modern Su-30, Su-34, and Su-35 fighters.

-Ukraine’s attacks on Russian airfields, coupled with the aging Russian fleet and limited production capacity, are creating an unsustainable situation for the Russian Air Force.

-The arrival of F-16s in Ukraine further exacerbates Russia’s challenges, indicating a losing battle of attrition in the air.

-The VKS is getting hollowed out faster than it can replace losses.

The Shocking Truth About Russia’s Air Force Losses in Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has not gone well for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The initial attack was reportedly under the premise that Ukraine would be taken in a week. And now, after three years of war, only 20 percent of Ukraine is in Russian hands.

Russian losses in personnel, tanks, and equipment have been massive.

However, US officials disagree with the state of Russia’s Air Force. Army Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the head of US European Command and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander, said during a House Armed Services Committee hearing that Russia has lost only 10 percent of its air force. 

The Russian Air Force Is in Trouble in Ukraine War 

“We do not see significant losses in the air domain, especially their long-range and strategic aviation fleets,” Cavoli said during an April testimony to the House.

“Russia’s strategic forces, long-range aviation, cyber capabilities, space capabilities, and capabilities in the electromagnetic spectrum have lost no capacity at all. The air force has lost some aircraft, but only about 10 percent of their fleet,” Cavoli added.

Was this simply an example of the military massaging the numbers to support the added military aid that the Biden administration sent to Ukraine? Cavoli reported that Russia had sustained 315,000 casualties in the war. NATO intelligence reported that by October 2024, the Russians had suffered double that (600,000 casualties) in the fighting. 

Rand Put Russia’s Aircraft Losses at 25 Percent

Ukraine has claimed to have shot down 347 aircraft and another 325 helicopters since February 2022, when Russia invaded. Kyiv’s claims have not been independently verified.

However, Rand published a piece in March 2024 stating that the Russian Air Force was less than 75 percent of its strength at the start of the 2022 invasion.

This report would entail losses in excess of 25 percent. This includes losses incurred in combat over Ukraine and “imputed” losses that arise from an aircraft accruing more flight hours than planned, reducing its overall life.

According to the piece, the VKS (Russian Air Force) had lost 16 aircraft in combat during the previous eight months. However, the VKS is also on track to suffer approximately 60 imputed aircraft losses this year due to overuse and the age of its airframes.

Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Meanwhile, the VKS currently procures only about 20 Su-30, Su-34, and Su-35 aircraft per year. Slightly more than half of the Russian aircraft used in Ukraine are over 30 years old, and the airframes have few flight hours left. Unlike the manpower battle, the Russians are losing this battle of attrition.

With the aging aircraft held in reserve to prolong the use of their airframes, most VKS fighters operating (and lost) over Ukraine are the newer Su-30, Su-34, and Su-35 aircraft, with occasional reported sightings of Su-25s. 

Ukrainian Attacks On Russian Airfields

With Ukrainian armed forces lacking in air defense artillery weapons, they’ve opted to attack Russian airfields to deter Russian air strikes. Russian airbases close to the Ukrainian border have been the target of airstrikes, drone attacks, missile attacks, and even saboteurs. 

Last June, Ukrainian drones damaged two Su-57s — Russia’s advanced stealth fighter — during an attack on an airfield in southern Russia. 

“Kyiv appears to be pursuing a clear strategy to force the VKS to either vacate its bases within several hundred miles of Ukraine’s borders or dedicate an inordinate quantity of air defense systems to defending them,” wrote air power expert Justin Bronk, in an article for the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank.

The small drone strike happened at the Akhtubinsk airbase, about 370 miles from Ukraine and 100 miles east of Volgograd (formerly Stalingrad). If Ukrainian drones can penetrate that deep into Russia, and with US-made ATACMS, which are ground-launched ballistic rockets to hit targets out to their full 190-mile range, then numerous Russian airfields are vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.

Russia Su-34 Ukraine

Russia’s Su-34 fighter-bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

This is just another small but effective method of attrition against the Russian VKS, furthering the hollowing out of their air fleet faster than they can be produced.

The arrival of F-16s from the US has boosted Ukraine’s defenses. Russian military bloggers were lamenting the shooting down of an SU-34 Fullback to an F-16 encounter in October. It is also a way to stir up sentiment against the US.

But the bottom line is that the Russian VKS can’t afford to suffer this kind of loss for much longer; it will not be able to replace the aircraft it has already lost. 

About the Author:

Steve Balestrieri is a 19FortyFive National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing for 19FortyFive, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in other military publications.

Written By

Steve Balestrieri is a 1945 National Security Columnist. He has served as a US Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer before injuries forced his early separation. In addition to writing for 1945, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and his work was regularly featured in the Millbury-Sutton Chronicle and Grafton News newspapers in Massachusetts.

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