AUKUS Has Arrived, But What Does the Future Hold?: The UK’s Astute-class replacement program, named the Submersible Ship Nuclear Replacement (SSNR), the SSN-AUKUS project took on a new dimension in March 2023 when Australia joined the effort.
The trilateral collaboration will significantly enhance the capabilities of the Royal Australian Navy and give valuable joint training and enhancements that the US, UK, and Australia can share as the alliance continues to grow.
Australia’s submarine force has been deploying conventionally powered diesel Collins-class submarines. In service since the summer of 1996, the Defense Ministry has been trying to extend its service life well past the class’s planned life at the time of commissioning.
The government has listed the submarine as a Product of Concern to enable enhanced ministerial oversight of this critical capability in 2025 as it struggles to extend the boats’ service life.
Although Australia would remain a non-nuclear weapons country, a nuclear-powered submarine would increase its capabilities, including the extended operation range of nuclear-fueled submarines over conventionally powered subs.
The AUKUS Agreement
The AUKUS agreement promises to revolutionize Australia’s submarine fleet. It includes three U.S.-built Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines and the future development of the SSN-AUKUS.
This move angered China, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told reporters in Beijing that the three countries should “do more things that are conducive to regional peace and stability,” Bloomberg reported. This reaction confirms that the agreement is good for all three nations.
The US and UK Royal Navy (RN) will collaborate with Australia. Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines will be based on a British design and incorporate technology from all three nations.
These will be the most advanced attack submarines developed for the Royal Navy and the first nuclear-powered submarines for the Royal Australian Navy. They will integrate US technology, including nuclear propulsion, vertical launch missile systems (VLS), and advanced weaponry.
The introduction of the Virginia-class submarines will help Australia bridge the capability gap in nuclear propulsion following the future retirement of its six Collins-class attack submarines.
The future SSNs should be easier, quicker, and cheaper to build and maintain. These boats will incorporate the improvements achieved over the evolution of the Virginia, Columbia, Collins, and Dreadnought-class submarine designs, possibly including electric propulsion, and X configuration after control surfaces.
Building the subs in British and Australian shipyards will boost jobs and ease the strain on the already backed-up US shipyards. This will improve the South Pacific alliance and boost each nation’s submarine capabilities, where China is acting with increasing bellicosity.
The Wheels Are Already Turning
New US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, confirmed that Australia had made the first payment of US $500 million to purchase its first Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarine to equip the Royal Australian Navy. This announcement was made during a meeting between the US Secretary of Defense and his Australian counterpart, Richard Marles, on February 11.
Australia recently completed its first local maintenance of a US Navy nuclear-powered attack submarine in mid-September as part of Pillar I of the program roadmap. The USS Hawaii (SSN 776) underwent maintenance performed by Australian engineers in collaboration with their US counterparts.
Australian sailors have undergone training with US Navy counterparts at the Nuclear Power School in Goose Creek, South Carolina. The sharing of its top-secret nuclear propulsion is a major step for the US. The US hasn’t shared its nuclear propulsion secrets with anyone outside of the UK since 1958.
The plan also includes sending Australian shipyard workers to see how the US and UK shipyards operate. Then Australia can “build up its infrastructure” that will enable it to house and support its submarines and visiting US submarines.
A Deal That Benefits Both Sides
Defense News quoted the commander of US submarine forces, Vice-Admiral Rob Gaucher, telling a conference in April 2024 that cooperation with Australia would help the US submarine fleet in essential ways. These included increasing the number of allied boats working together on operations.
Australian personnel gaining experience on US boats would help ease the US Navy’s recruiting shortfall from the COVID-19 epidemic. Access to the Australian base at HMAS Stirling in Western Australia would also extend the US Navy’s reach and maintenance options.
In 2024, the US Navy would graduate about 50 Australians as nuclear-trained operators and another 50 submarine combat operators. They would train on US submarines for the rest of this decade, increasing the number of people qualified to stand watch on American boats and being trained when they get their Virginia-class subs.
But Can US Shipyards Keep Up With Demand?
Here is one of two big sticking points: Neither the US nor the UK has shipyards producing to their potential. The US shipyards are trying to beef up production for their submarines, which are currently hovering around a third of its potential.
Because of COVID-19 and other factors, the shipyards are about three years behind on submarine production for domestic use. Let alone for Australia.
Astute-Class Submarine. Image Credit: Royal Navy.
The US needs to get on a huge recruiting program to lure qualified engineers and shipyard workers to work there.
AUKUS: The Trump Effect On The Deal
Anyone who has watched the news lately knows that President Trump hates what he characterizes as “one-way deals.” If he feels the US isn’t getting a fair shake on a deal, he wants to quash it. The purchase of the Virginia-class submarines is fine.
However, where the US is sharing some of its best-kept secrets with Australia and not getting much at all in return, is another. Will Trump balk at this?
It is a legitimate concern. But here’s where Pete Hegseth will earn his pay. It will be up to him mainly, but to a lesser extent, the Brits and Aussies, to communicate that this deal supports and benefits everyone. That’s how it should be explained.
Astute-class submarine Audacious under construction at Barrow in Furness shipyard in Cumbria.
Audacious is the fourth of the seven Astute Class submarines being built for the Royal Navy.
The first two boats, HMS Astute and Ambush, are currently undergoing sea trials. The third boat, Artful, is reaching the final stages of her construction at Barrow shipyard. All three are to be based at Faslane on the Clyde.
This could be a fantastic opportunity for three allies to collaborate to counter Chinese expansion in the Indo-Pacific. However, to make it work, many moving parts must come together.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a 19FortyFive National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing for 19FortyFive, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
