100-Word Article Summary: The future of the U.S. Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program is uncertain, with former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall admitting the decision now lies with the Trump administration.
-Budget constraints and Elon Musk’s vocal criticism of manned aircraft further complicate the debate. Some argue for a more affordable F-35 successor instead of the costly NGAD, which is projected to exceed $300 million per aircraft.
-With priorities shifting and pressure to cut federal spending, will the U.S. double down on sixth-generation air superiority or settle for a souped-up F-35? The decision will shape America’s air dominance for decades.
NGAD or a Next-Gen F-35? Trump’s Big Decision on Air Power
Should the United States Air Force pursue the Next Generation Air Dominance fighter fully, or instead opt for a more advanced successor to the F-35?
This is the question that the former Secretary of the Air Force, Frank Kendall, commented on during a recent conversation with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Speaking at the CSIS event — which can be viewed online — revealed that the direction in which the U.S. Air Force decides to go is still an open question: there is still a great deal of uncertainty.
“We’re going to still have a debate here just in the next few months, I expect, about NGAD, the platform, but the idea of a Next Generation Air Dominance family of systems is very valid,” Frank Kendall said.
But, what is clear is that there is a trend that won’t go away anytime soon, at least according to Kendall, who sees “a continuing need for crewed aircraft to have reliable communications and command and control over uncrewed aircraft. And that can be done from tactical band aircraft working with CCA. I think that’s model will probably follow for quite a bit of additional time.”
The Trump Administration: NGAD vs. F-35?
In the opening days of the new Trump administration, a great deal is in flux, including the future of several high-profile and increasingly expensive Pentagon projects. The former top aviator thinks it is something that has yet to be completely decided.
“The NGAD decision is really interesting,” Kendall said. “And we – I wish I could stick around to try to – for a few more months at least, or maybe a few more years. But we got to a point where, with the election results, I really felt that the right thing to do was to let the next administration make this decision. They’re going to have to live with it. And they’re going to have to execute it. So hopefully we’ll get people in who can, you know, make wise judgments about this pretty quickly.”
And herein lies the dilemma. “What the Air Force had started out to do, going back several years, was build a replacement for the F-22,” Kendall explained. “It’s a world class fighter from its era, he added. “But that was 30 years ago.”
Show Me the Money
One of the burning questions on everyone’s mind is financial — not only a question of budgetary sufficiency, but political will, as well as what impact Elon Musk will have on the project, and indeed on a raft of other projects the Pentagon has in development.
Musk has been extremely vocal about his disdain for manned aircraft. He recently took to X to advocate for unmanned quadcopter-done swarms in favor of manned aircraft like the F-35 — which he bemoaned as designed by “idiots.”
However, online commentators were quick to point out that while an individual quadcopter, or even an entire swarm of them, is cheaper than an F-35, there is no comparison between the two in terms of stealth, range, payload capacity, or virtually any other performance metric.
NGAD Photo Essay: What It Could Look Like In the Future
NGAD Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
NGAD image. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
NGAD fighter from U.S. Air Force.
NGAD Fighter via Lockheed Martin.
NGAD Fighter Mock Up. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
U.S. NGAD Fighter. Artist Rendering.
A Follow On F-35?
Still, given the current political climate and the interest in cutting federal spending, potentially for the F-35 — the most expensive defense project in history — the project’s future is up for debate. Kendall seemed to concur.
“So this decision [on the NGAD] ultimately depends upon two judgments. One is about, is there enough money in the budget to buy all the other things we need and NGAD? And is NGAD the right thing to buy? The alternatives to the F-22 replacement concept include something that looks more like an F-35 follow on somewhere, something that’s much less expensive, something that’s a multi-role aircraft,” Kendall said.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
