Key Points and Summary: China’s nuclear expansion is alarming U.S. military leaders. In 2020, the Pentagon projected that China’s ICBM warheads would reach 200 by 2025.
-Now, in 2025, reports confirm that China has exceeded 500 nuclear warheads, building vast missile silo fields and enhancing its land, sea, and air deterrent capabilities.
DF-15B missile from China
-The PRC’s rapidly growing arsenal raises concerns about a surprise nuclear strike, pushing the U.S. to bolster nuclear deterrence, bomber patrols, and strategic positioning in the Pacific.
-As China accelerates its military buildup, the world watches to see if this signals a new era of nuclear competition.
China’s Nuclear Arsenal Has Doubled—What It Means for the U.S.
Chinese shipbuilders are adding new aircraft carriers, amphibious vehicles, and destroyers at an alarming pace. Chinese armored vehicle engineers are fast-adding new infantry carriers and mobile artillery platforms.
Chinese weapons developers are adding large numbers of new drones and attack robots. But the largest and potentially most alarming element of all of this, according to many senior US leaders, is the staggering pace at which China is adding nuclear weapons.
The concern has been on the Pentagon’s radar for quite some time. As far back as 2021, former Commander of Air Force Global Strike Command, Gen. Timothy Ray, said at the time that China had planned to double its nuclear arsenal by the end of the decade.
Ray explained that China was “departing from its minimalist theory” at the 2021 Air Force Association Symposium.
2020 Pentagon Predictions
The Pentagon’s 2020 China Military Report may have informed Ray’s 2021 comments, as Ray seemed to anticipate the years that followed accurately.
The Pentagon’s 2020 report states that the number of warheads arming Beijing’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of threatening America will likely grow to 200 in the next five years by 2025.
It seems this prediction is becoming true.
As an element of this expansion, China is also increasing its inventory of long-range land-fired DF-26 anti-ship missiles able to fire both conventional and nuclear missiles.
In subsequent years, the concerns cited by Ray and the Pentagon’s 2020 report rapidly became a reality. By 2021, commercially available satellite photos revealed that, indeed, China had begun to build silo fields to house ICBMs across the mainland, a development which confirmed the PRCs ambition.
Military vehicles carrying DF-21D ballistic missiles roll to Tiananmen Square during a military parade to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of World War Two, in Beijing, China, September 3, 2015. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj
For many years, Congressional and Pentagon assessments have indicated that the PRC operates mobile nuclear weapons with multiple re-entry vehicles and can position and reposition ICBMs across the country. The construction of large silo fields indicates that China seeks to develop the capacity to launch a “bolt-out-of-the-blue” massive salvo attack should it wish to.
China Has 500 Nuclear Warheads
A January 2025 assessment from the Arms Control Association confirms that Ray’s prediction indeed seems to have come true, as China has more than doubled its number of nuclear warheads in recent years
“China is estimated by independent experts to possess, as of January 2024, around 500 nuclear warheads, an arsenal that has increased significantly in recent years. It has sought to modernize and expand its nuclear delivery systems in pursuit of a robust nuclear triad.
China continues to develop road-mobile ICBMs, advance the construction of three new ICBM silo fields, and improve the capabilities of its sea and air-based deterrent,” the Arms Control Association says.
Chinese ICBMs. Image: Chinese Internet.
The rapid growth of China’s nuclear arsenal has driven the Air Force to work intensely to increase allied support for its nuclear deterrence posture, given that not many US allies operate ICBMs.
This is also a key reason why the US has, in recent years, been increasing the range and frequency of its bomber task force support patrols and basing more assets in Guam.
About the Author: Kris Osborn
Kris Osborn is the Military Technology Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
