Ever since the first Trump Administration, there has been a constant drumbeat that the former real estate development tycoon would use his now-second term “to destroy NATO.” Voices carrying that message increased in volume after last weekend’s Munich Security Conference (MSC).
After the address given by US Vice President JD Vance and the news that US President Donald Trump was directly engaged in dialogue with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin – and had engaged in a 90-minute phone call with the former KGB Lt. Col.- one diplomat at the MSC could not contain his frustration.
The Threat to NATO? Look At the Numbers
“We’ve now got an alliance between a Russian president who wants to destroy Europe and an American president who also wants to destroy Europe,” one diplomat said.
But those who are writing the obituary of the transatlantic alliance need to look at the numbers and just how far NATO has come in re-building its collective military establishments in just 4 years.
In 2025, twenty-three out of the thirty-two NATO allies are now spending the 2 per cent or more of GDP on defense spending, which is the target goal for the alliance.
This is a rather dramatic increase of from just six countries in 2021 that were meeting that goal. (Poland is in the “best in class” category in this matter, having reached the 4.12 percent level and is heading for 5 per cent or better.)
Why NATO Needs to Spend More
The obvious reason why these NATO members are increasing military spending is the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Since Putin bragged his legions would take Kyiv in 4-5 days, their defence spending has increased 18 per cent across the alliance.
But the public backing for this increased spending is more of a concern than the US positions on NATO and fluctuates within different member states. At least 50 per cent of the population in Albania, Bulgaria, France, Germany, Norway, and Sweden say that their country should spend more on defense.
But in Croatia, the Czech Republic, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Slovakia, and Slovenia that support drops to 30 per cent or less.
Another issue that comes to the fore is one of using debt to fund defense spending in this time when there is a clear existential threat from Moscow. Many NATO members are also European Union (EU) nations, and the bloc’s regulations are that member states must keep their deficits under 3 per cent of GDP and overall debt under 60 per cent.
Currently Poland is seeking an exemption from the deficit spending restriction in order to fund its defence outlays. The NATO member has recently put forth an idea to provide a financial mechanism for the spending demands that the increase in defence outlays create.
The European Union should establish a “rearmament bank” to raise the funding it needs to increase its defense capabilities and create s bulwark against Russia’s threats to the European members of the alliance, said Poland’s Foreign Minister, Radosław Sikorski. Poland currently hosts the rotating presidency of the EU Council and made regional security one of the top agenda items.
The Eastern Flank
Despite what is seen by some as an anti-NATO attitude in Washington, Poland’s president Andrzej Duda has stated that the US does not plan to reduce its troops that are in place now on the NATO eastern flank.
“There is absolutely no American intention whatsoever to reduce activity here in our [eastern flank] part of Europe, especially in terms of security, to reduce the number of American troops,” Duda said after discussions in Warsaw with Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg.
Duda stated he hoped earlier plans to create a permanent US military base in Poland, which he had previously called to be named “Fort Trump” during the American president’s first term in office, could still be completed.
“Here we even talked about the fact that I hope that Fort Trump, which we talked about during President Donald Trump’s first term, will really come into being and that there will be such a very strongly entrenched American military presence in our country,” he says.
Russian President Vladimir Putin watches a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 77th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in Red Square in central Moscow, Russia May 9, 2022. Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool via REUTERS.
About 10,000 US troops are currently stationed in Poland on continual rotation. “As long as they [the troops] are still in place,” said a US military academic speaking to 19FortyFive. “And as long as the administration continues to fulfil their obligations to the alliance, any talk about the death of NATO is premature to say the least. Trump does not want as his legacy to be the man who destroyed the transatlantic partnership.”
About the Author: Robert F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
