Peace From Beneath Our Feet? The Ukraine-US Minerals Deal: A Ukrainian news publisher has released what is claimed to be the full text of the Ukraine rare earths mineral deal with the US that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is supposed to sign on Friday, 28 February.
The language of the document reveals that the agreement falls short of the security guarantees Kyiv had demanded in return for acceding to Washington receiving these mineral rights.
The agreement shows a clear future interest for the United States in Ukraine continuing to be a sovereign and economically stable nation. Kyiv had originally demanded near-airtight security guarantees, but concessions are reported to have been made on both sides to get the agreement “across the line” to a point where a signing could actually take place today.
Sources on both sides of the issue state that the current agreement is a significant improvement over earlier drafts that the two sides had discussed.
However, this document is only a first step to subsequent negotiations instead of a final, concrete agreement. Observers also point out that until the signing actually takes place, there could be changes in the two sides’ positions – right up until the last moment..
“It’s definitely much better compared to what we saw before. I don’t see any traps, but we need to reach a final conclusion,” Oleksandr Merezhko, an Ukrainian Parliamentary Deputy, said to local media outlets in Kyiv regarding what is at this stage a final version.
Investment Schemes
“I am not signing something that will be paid by 10 generations of Ukrainians,” Zelensky said. He also stated that he wants a dialogue with US President Donald Trump on this issue and others.
The proposal from the White House demanded a 50% interest in Ukraine’s natural resources, including critical minerals, oil and gas, as well as critical infrastructure and ports. Zelensky’s response was that Ukraine is not ready to “split 50/50 without knowing what’s ahead.”
The Ukrainian leader also pointed out Washington proposal was for future aid must be met with matching commitments at a 1:2 ratio. “For every US dollar, Ukraine must return two. In simple terms, this is 100% of the loan,” he explained.
Zelensky had also added that aid given to Ukraine cannot be counted as debts since they are grants. He also made a strong point that this deal would need to include security guarantees.
So far no such guarantees have been forthcoming, he said.
Valuations of Ukraine’s Minerals
During the Ukraine: Year 2025 forum in Kyiv on 23 February, the value and volume of Ukraine’s critical minerals were discussed.
This resulted in some somewhat rancorous debate about the true value of their worth, with some experts claiming that the assessments of true mineral worth were based on old Soviet-era calculations.
It is accepted that, $350 billion worth of natural resources are located in the territory that is currently occupied by Russian forces, according to First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko who spoke at the event.
The realization of the agreement would, of course, require that Moscow withdraw from the areas that it seized in the initial phases of its February 2024 illegal invasion of Ukraine, which is a conundrum that no one seems to have a solution for at present.
What concerns the Ukrainian side is that while Zelensky does not have a regular dialogue with US President Donald Trump, the US has had almost continuous interchange with Russia for more than two years now.
Normalization Because of What?
Former diplomat and president of the Council on Foreign Relations Richard Haass has been shuttling back and forth to Moscow for informal talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He has also met this Russian official in New York.
This is a sore spot with Zelensky, who pointed out that despite the devastation that Russia has inflicted on Ukrainian cities and the constant attacks on civilian targets, Washington has been in contact with Moscow throughout the war anyway.
Critics of Haass and others who have been engaged in this long-running dialogue with Moscow charge the former diplomat for being hypocritical when he now claims that by speaking with Putin on the phone that it is Trump who has removed Russia from its “pariah status.”
Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
“Isn’t this what Haass and his team have been working on all along – continuing to put a human face on Lavrov and the other Kremlin ‘spokesmen’,” said one US political commentator speaking with 19FortyFive. “Making these regular pilgrimages to Moscow has done more to confer legitimacy on Putin’s regime than anything else. No wonder Zelensky is worried.”
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
Jim
February 28, 2025 at 11:40 am
The pros and cons of the “rare Earth minerals” deal.
The con… entangles Trump in Ukraine, just what many people in Washington, who support the continuation of the war, wanted.
It’s a mirage, the ‘rare Earths’ mostly are in territory controlled by Russia or if in the Donbas, incorporated into Russia; Kiev will never get their hands on it, again.
The pro… Trump had to deal with Zelensky in some fashion and it had to be in a ‘strong’ way. Zelensky suggested this ‘metals’ deal to Sen. Graham… most likely as a lure for the greedy Graham, with no real intent to follow through, or didn’t think the Trump administration would take him up on an offer, made in an off-hand way.
Well, Trump took Zelensky up on the offer.
Kiev never wanted to actually do the deal.
Trump forced the deal on Zelensky and Kiev to show who had the power… who was strong and who was subservient.
So, overall, Trump looks strong, in the moment of forcing Zelensky to sign a deal that Zelensky never wanted to sign.
In the end will the deal matter.
No, but, now, in the moment, Trump has the upper hand in his relations with Zelensky, who has been summoned to Washington. I got a bridge to sell you, if you think Zelensky was excited to come at Trump’s beck and call to Washington, to do Trump’s bidding.
Zelensky came to Washington as a beggar and a loser.
Remember, Zelensky is nothing, but an actor hired to play a role… that’s what he is… his role, now?
Trump’s little twerp.
Jim
February 28, 2025 at 3:53 pm
Zelensky proved he’s nothing but a little twerp (a little piece of dog meat), today, at the White House.
Not clear if the “rare Earths” deal was actually signed.
But, no matter.
In any event, as I suggested above, the “deal” itself was not important, what was important was for Trump to look strong, and he did, so did J. D. Vance, in telling Zelensky off to his face.
Zelensky, for far too long, has been able to blow smoke up people’s backside, because his Western interlocutors wanted to suck up every word he said, no matter how much a lie or stupid gibberish… no matter how much his cronies and he stole from American tax payers.
No matter how many suicide missions he and his fellow Banderites wasted human lives on because at base they see their soldiers as expendable Slavs (the ‘locals’ to be used for Kiev’s slaughter… and arrogance aggrandizement).
Not any more, the truth is evident, Zelensky and his crowd of hyper-chauvinist Banderites in Kiev are being exposed for what they are… criminals, warlord shysters, bent on ripping off American tax payer Dollars, and willing to kill & murder to get what they want and destroy physical assets, if they can’t control them (mafia politics & economy).
I know this won’t happen, but it should: Zelensky needs to be arrested and held on war crimes and corruption, stealing U. S. Tax Dollars and taking his ‘cut’ for personal aggrandizement and enrichment.
And, everybody else, with any power, in so-called Ukraine, that has stolen our money.
I’m sick of it… the whole thing was a corrupt scam from the start.
What should the penalty be if Zelensky is convicted?
The maximum penalty allowed by law.
It’s over for Zelensky. He’s done, finito, kaput.
I suggest, today, Zelensky may have sunk Ukraine as a nation-state. The Banderites of Kiev need to be hunted down and either forced out from what was Ukraine (a failed, warlord, oligarch, pile of corruption) or arrested and tried for war crimes with maximum punishment if convicted.
Banderitism is a curse & cancer on all of Europe… which needs to be ended, once and for all.
For the good of everybody.
Reveille
March 3, 2025 at 1:59 am
Politically, these kinds of commercial deals help Trump sell to the American people continued US involvement in the war . . . and the peace that follows.
Among other things, they help to combat fraud by Ukrainian and US contractors and subcontractors because every dollar spent imposes an obligation to repay it.
They’re not an explicit security guarantee but they tend to work like an implicit one.
Zelensky certainly wants a strong and explicit guarantee but he has learned that this is the most he’ll get from the USA so he should take it and make the most of it.
The Kremlin and its proxies will try to undermine any such commercial deals with objections, promises, and threats . . . as if it cared about anything other than getting a free hand in Kyiv and turning Ukraine into a Kremlin-controlled puppet.
To date Putin has not wanted to draft young Russian men from St. Petersburg and Moscow because even dictators need voluntary political support at home by avoiding inconclusive and costly of “forever wars.”
Ukraine and its allies do have room to escalate, raise the costs significantly to Russia, and prolong this war.
If Ukraine and its allies respect Russia’s true redlines and not what the Kremlin claims are Russia’s redlines, then a peace agreement can be reached that gives all parties what they most need.