Peace From Beneath Our Feet? The Ukraine-US Minerals Deal: A Ukrainian news publisher has released what is claimed to be the full text of the Ukraine rare earths mineral deal with the US that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is supposed to sign on Friday, 28 February.
The language of the document reveals that the agreement falls short of the security guarantees Kyiv had demanded in return for acceding to Washington receiving these mineral rights.
The agreement shows a clear future interest for the United States in Ukraine continuing to be a sovereign and economically stable nation. Kyiv had originally demanded near-airtight security guarantees, but concessions are reported to have been made on both sides to get the agreement “across the line” to a point where a signing could actually take place today.
Sources on both sides of the issue state that the current agreement is a significant improvement over earlier drafts that the two sides had discussed.
However, this document is only a first step to subsequent negotiations instead of a final, concrete agreement. Observers also point out that until the signing actually takes place, there could be changes in the two sides’ positions – right up until the last moment..
“It’s definitely much better compared to what we saw before. I don’t see any traps, but we need to reach a final conclusion,” Oleksandr Merezhko, an Ukrainian Parliamentary Deputy, said to local media outlets in Kyiv regarding what is at this stage a final version.
Investment Schemes
“I am not signing something that will be paid by 10 generations of Ukrainians,” Zelensky said. He also stated that he wants a dialogue with US President Donald Trump on this issue and others.
The proposal from the White House demanded a 50% interest in Ukraine’s natural resources, including critical minerals, oil and gas, as well as critical infrastructure and ports. Zelensky’s response was that Ukraine is not ready to “split 50/50 without knowing what’s ahead.”
The Ukrainian leader also pointed out Washington proposal was for future aid must be met with matching commitments at a 1:2 ratio. “For every US dollar, Ukraine must return two. In simple terms, this is 100% of the loan,” he explained.
Zelensky had also added that aid given to Ukraine cannot be counted as debts since they are grants. He also made a strong point that this deal would need to include security guarantees.
So far no such guarantees have been forthcoming, he said.
Valuations of Ukraine’s Minerals
During the Ukraine: Year 2025 forum in Kyiv on 23 February, the value and volume of Ukraine’s critical minerals were discussed.
This resulted in some somewhat rancorous debate about the true value of their worth, with some experts claiming that the assessments of true mineral worth were based on old Soviet-era calculations.
It is accepted that, $350 billion worth of natural resources are located in the territory that is currently occupied by Russian forces, according to First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko who spoke at the event.
The realization of the agreement would, of course, require that Moscow withdraw from the areas that it seized in the initial phases of its February 2024 illegal invasion of Ukraine, which is a conundrum that no one seems to have a solution for at present.
What concerns the Ukrainian side is that while Zelensky does not have a regular dialogue with US President Donald Trump, the US has had almost continuous interchange with Russia for more than two years now.
Normalization Because of What?
Former diplomat and president of the Council on Foreign Relations Richard Haass has been shuttling back and forth to Moscow for informal talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He has also met this Russian official in New York.
This is a sore spot with Zelensky, who pointed out that despite the devastation that Russia has inflicted on Ukrainian cities and the constant attacks on civilian targets, Washington has been in contact with Moscow throughout the war anyway.
Critics of Haass and others who have been engaged in this long-running dialogue with Moscow charge the former diplomat for being hypocritical when he now claims that by speaking with Putin on the phone that it is Trump who has removed Russia from its “pariah status.”
Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
“Isn’t this what Haass and his team have been working on all along – continuing to put a human face on Lavrov and the other Kremlin ‘spokesmen’,” said one US political commentator speaking with 19FortyFive. “Making these regular pilgrimages to Moscow has done more to confer legitimacy on Putin’s regime than anything else. No wonder Zelensky is worried.”
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
