Key Points and Summary: Ukraine launched a surprise counteroffensive into Russia’s Kursk region, a move that caught both Russia and Ukraine’s Western allies off guard. The attack reportedly inflicted heavy losses, including on a contingent of North Korean troops sent to reinforce Russian positions.
-While the offensive demonstrated Ukraine’s ability to strike back and further humiliated Russian forces, its strategic impact on the overall war remains uncertain. The operation’s goal of diverting Russian resources from the Donbas region appears to have had limited success.
–Ukraine continues to face significant manpower challenges, requiring a more systematic approach to training and recruitment to sustain its war effort.
Ukrane’s Kursk Invasion: A Good or Bad Idea?
Given the disparity between how much territory was seized by the August 2024 Ukraine invasion of Russia’s Kursk region vs the regions taken by Moscow in its initial invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the question has been asked: what was the value of this unanticipated move?
The attack was both an operational surprise and a complete shock to the Russians, as well as to Ukraine’s Western benefactors, who were never told what Kyiv had planned.
This “tells you all you need to know,” said a Ukrainian military volunteer who had just returned from the region when 19FortyFive spoke to him by phone from Ukraine.
“This attack in Kurks showed that Ukraine’s armed forces are not just being led around by the nose and controlled the US and its allies. We have a mind and a plan or our own and the means to achieve it.”
“Ukrainian units continue fighting against the Russians and as much as they try – they cannot re-take this territory. It has been a major psychological blow to them. Russians are absolutely unprepared for someone to strike back at them and beat at their own game in any way. They are well-practiced to being the big bully on the block,” he said, “but Russians are fundamentally unused to an adversary who continues to bleed them out almost three years into the conflict.”
“Like their leader, this lacklustre failed excuse for a KGB officer with the ‘short man’s complex’ who leads their country, they are not used to people striking back at them. Ukraine fighting for its life, inflicting so many losses on them, destroying Moscow’s armoured vehicles by the thousands, combat aircraft by the hundreds and chasing the Black Sea Fleet and sinking one ship after another is a nightmare for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin.”
North Korea Can’t Take the Heat in Kursk
One of the key indicators that the Ukraine counteroffensive continues to frustrate Putin’s goals of subjugating Ukraine is that his moves to try and change the momentum on the battlefield continue to fail.
Moscow had hoped to change the tide of the war by inserting up to 12,000 North Korean soldiers into the fight – many of whom were sent into Kursk in a bid to push the Ukrainians back across the border.
Recently, these North Korean soldiers were pulled off the front lines in the Kursk region following heavy losses, according to the New York Times in a report from last Thursday, quoting unnamed Ukrainian and US officials.
These developments are reported almost a week after Western officials estimated some 4,000 of the 11,000 North Korean soldiers believed to have been sent to Russia late last year may have been killed, wounded, captured or gone missing.
Ukraine news reports have also been rife with stories of North Korean troops that have been captured and relay the horrific conditions on the front lines.
There are western intelligence officials who suggest the North Korean soldiers could have been withdrawn to be put through an additional set of training programs to prepare them for future combat.
Another rumor is that Russian military planners may be considering alternative deployment options for these troops to avoid the heavy casualties they have suffered thus far, the NYT reported.
These troops were initially billed as Pyongyang’s “best-trained special operations troops,” but rather than being used as shock troops or commando-type missions they have instead been used as cannon fodder, causing huge losses from Ukrainian firepower and land mines used in the Kursk region.
Kursk: A Master Stroke or a Failure?
Whether the Kursk counter-offensive was a success or a strategic gamble gone bad will only be answered over time.
What seems to be the conventional wisdom is that the attack achieved several important operational objectives.
More importantly, Russia’s forces were humiliated once again – lending to the narrative that Putin’s invasion has been a failure on multiple levels.
Strategically, however, there is no clear answer. The Kursk enterprise was to have siphoned off considerable resources from the Russian operations in the Donbas and relieved the pressure on the Ukraine units in that region.
Despite these intentions, the Donbas remains the center of significant operations and still absorbs a disproportionate percentage of Russian military resources.
This year promises to be pivotal and demands changes in the war’s course, reads a report from the Atlantic Council. The main issue is that manpower demands on Kyiv are such that a solution must be found soon.
“It is clear that the policies adopted in Kyiv and other Western capitals since 2022 are no longer working,” reads the document. “Ukraine’s manpower problems cannot be overcome via reliance on patriotic sentiment and superior combat experience alone. A more systematic approach to training and equipping new troops is clearly necessary – and must be accompanied by measures to improve leadership and accountability within the Ukrainian military.”
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
