Summary and Key Points: China’s recent “second flight” of the Chengdu J-36 stealth fighter appears carefully timed to project technological superiority as the U.S. grapples with budget issues and delays in its NGAD and F/A-XX fighter programs.
-This move aligns with Beijing’s strategy to display advanced military capabilities publicly, especially during significant political events like the annual Liang Hui meetings.
-While the true operational status of the J-36 remains uncertain, its publicized flights serve as propaganda to highlight China’s growing aerospace strength.
-However, experts caution these displays are tightly controlled by China’s leadership, indicating strategic messaging rather than genuine transparency about the aircraft’s actual capabilities.
What We Are Seeing From The Chengdu J-36 ‘Second’ Flight
During one of the many visits I made to Beijing, I noticed near certain office buildings, you would see a relatively large number of expensive and new automobiles parked nearby. It seemed out of place in a city where people would purposely use an old, rusted bicycle because a new one parked in a local bike rack would almost immediately be stolen or pieces nicked from it if they were worth anything.
“As much as these models cost here in China,” I said to a friend who was based there at the time, “you would think people would want to keep them in a nice, safe garage. Out here on the street, they are at risk of being stolen—or even damaged by Beijing drivers, some of the worst in the world.”
He then explained the psychology of Beijing’s well-heeled, consumerism-driven demographic.
“If you buy a very expensive auto and you are Chinese, what you will want to do is to drive it someplace and park it where all the people you work with can look out the window and see that this fancy Mercedes or Ferrari or whatever is being driven by you,” he said. “There is just too much of an instinct in this culture to show off and to say, ‘Hey look, I have one of these, and you do not’.”
The showing off may very well be part of the motivation for the Chengdu Aerospace Corporation (CAC), deciding to fly its J-36 fighter for what they claim as only the second time on March 17.
Making the US Efforts Look Bad
The “I have one, and you do not” motivation is probably part of what is at work here. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has now flown and has had photos and video posted online of two next-generation combat aircraft—one being the J-36 and the other being a smaller, vertical-tailless design from CAC’s competitors at Shenyang Aerospace.
The US currently has had two next-generation fighter (NGAD) programs in the works for some time now. One is the US Air Force (USAF) Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, which is billed as a 6th-generation fighter to ultimately replace the F-22A Raptor.
However, that program had been paused months ago while the USAF leadership under former Secretary Frank Kendall decided to back up and take another look at the NGAD’s cost numbers. By the service’s admission, the aircraft’s projected cost was ballooning to more than $300 million per unit.
Troy Meink, a former KC-135 navigator and the current principal deputy director of the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), has been tapped by the Trump Administration to take Kendall’s place. He will now have to cope with a raft of decisions related to this effort that may make the spy satellite programs he is used to managing seem cheap by comparison. Prototypes or testbed airframes for NGAD have reportedly already flown, but little is known about the aircraft’s details.
At the same time, the US Navy (USN) is working on a design to replace the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet as the service’s primary carrier-capable fighter. Using Old Testament-like genealogy, the Northrop YF-17 prototype for the USAF lightweight fighter competition “begat” the Super Hornet, making the overall aerodynamic concept for this aircraft more than a half-century old.
That program, which is called F/A-XX at present, is not believed to be at the stage where a flyable prototype is constructed. Also recently reported is that one of the three prime contractors bidding on this effort, Lockheed Martin, is no longer involved in the program, leaving only Boeing and Northrop Grumman remaining.
According to former Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Adm. Lisa Frachetti, the F/A-XX will have “advanced sensors, advanced lethality, advanced range, and being able to integrate with manned and unmanned capabilities together.”
Both programs appear to have very ambitious, “blue-sky” goals for performance, low observability, and fuel efficiency/range. However, neither seems to be at the level of development of either of the two Chinese programs.
This makes the US appear behind and makes the competition to field a next-generation fighter seem like another “race to the moon,” East v. West dynamic. It perfectly aligns with the Chinese penchant for this kind of drama in which they appear ahead.
The Party’s Program
It is also not a coincidence the Chinese recently concluded the Liang Hui (两会), or the “two sessions” in Beijing. This is the ten-day-long annual gathering of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).
Many of the delegates that sit on one or both bodies – the first ostensibly being the national parliament and the other being a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) organization – are double-hatted and hold positions inside of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) or within the defense industrial sector as well.
Announcements or revelations about the latest weapon system or other defense-related innovations being made in close proximity to this event are commonplace.
What was not lost on those attending was one of the primary focal points of these meetings was advancing national science and technology projects. Senior officials announced the creation of a new high-tech “state venture capital guidance fund.” Also, they committed to maintaining the current high levels of government spending on research and development.
In line with the “showing off” impulse, this flight of the J-36 is what CAC is saying to those who just announced their dedication to advancing more government spending. The aircraft maker says, “Just look what we can do.”
Staged Appearances
Whatever the motivations, these new-generation combat aircraft appearances are staged and sanctioned at the highest levels of the PRC government. They can be publicized in what appears to be “unofficial” news reporting for precisely the purposes described above.
However, one should remember that under normal circumstances, posting either videos or photos of the kind shown yesterday is strictly illegal in Xi Jinping’s dictatorship. The PRC Ministry of State Security (MSS) has issued warnings regarding – and has enforced increasingly restrictive regulations targeting—“military fans” posting this kind of content online.
Reporting details of military construction projects, the technical specifications of any weapon systems, or the deployment or demonstration of new military equipment can be prosecuted. Prison sentences of 3-7 years can be imposed for the most serious offenders.
“This is like the old Soviet Union was in the bad old days,” said a former NATO nation intelligence officer who spoke to 19FortyFive. “Nothing like this—videos or photos of new top-secret fighter aircraft being posted online—‘just happens’ or occurs by accident in China. It is always blessed from way on-high and for a specific reason.”
About the Author and Biography
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
