In a dramatic turn of events over the past 24 hours, President Donald Trump initially escalated the trade war with Canada by doubling tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%. This move was framed as retaliation against Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s decision to impose a 25% levy on electricity exports to the United States.
What followed was an all too-Trumpian spectacle of bluster, brinkmanship, and backtracking.
Ford, despite having pledged to stand firm against Trump, abruptly suspended the electricity levy following a call with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Trump, in turn, hinted that he would “probably” reconsider the 50% tariffs, though not the original 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum.
The Tariff War of 2025 Keep Getting Worse
The cycle of escalation and de-escalation highlights the chaotic and shortsighted nature of Trump’s economic vision – one that is utterly disconnected from serious economic thought, steeped in outdated protectionist delusions, and ultimately harmful to American economic and geopolitical interests.
This is not serious economic policymaking – it is unserious political spectacle. It is Trump announcing sweeping tariffs with little forethought, only to adjust course when the inevitable domestic and international blowback kicks in. This pattern – impose tariffs, provoke retaliation, absorb the economic pain, then reverse course – has become the defining characteristic of Trump’s approach to trade. But this is not rational economic strategy; it is irrational psychological reflex.
What takes this latest round of the tariff war to even greater heights of absurdity is that it is grounded in the most profound misunderstanding of the nature of the modern economy. Trump still seems to believe that tariffs can function as they did in the 19th century, when the United States could use tariffs to develop domestic industries and to fund a federal government that was a tiny fraction of the size of today’s. But that era, to the extent it ever really existed, passed long ago.
Today, the American economy is integrated into a global economy – one in which supply chains traverse borders as a matter of course. American manufacturers sometimes compete against foreign imports; but they often rely on them too. So, for example, Canadian steel and aluminum producers are not just competitors with American firms – they are critical nodes in integrated North American supply chains that enable U.S. firms to manufacture their products and employ millions of American workers in the process.
By making the contributions of these Canadian suppliers more expensive, Trump is not protecting American industry; he is actively sabotaging it. As these tariffs kick in, U.S. automakers, construction firms, and aerospace manufacturers will face higher costs, incentivizing them to either raise prices, cut jobs, or move production elsewhere. What they will not do is reshore jobs to the U.S.. Nor will they make American firms more competitive. Indeed, quite the opposite: they will make American businesses less efficient and less competitive in the global marketplace .
And if all that weren’t reason enough to oppose Trump’s tariffs, this latest round of tariffs also threatens to disrupt the U.S. defense industrial base, which depends on Canadian raw materials, parts and components. Against the backdrop of war in Ukraine and tensions in the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. defense sector is already struggling to keep up with demand.
The last thing America’s military needs right now is an arbitrary increase in the cost of materials required for the production of artillery shells, missiles, warships, fighter jets, or armored vehicles. Canada has long been an indispensable partner in U.S. defense production, supplying key components under agreements that both reflect and reinforce the deep interdependence of both countries’ security interests. Disrupting this partnership by initiating tariff war will not only increase costs for the Pentagon but also delay weapons production at a time when military readiness is a pressing concern.
What Donald Trump Is Missing and Gets Wrong
While Trump’s foreign policy instincts – at least in some areas – reflect something of understanding of evolving global power dynamics, his trade policies reveal nothing more than a profound and pernicious ignorance of how the modern economy functions. The president, for example, views trade as a zero-sum game when, in fact, it is a key ingredient of economic growth. As a result, he prioritizes the theatrics of economic nationalism – and especially tariffs – over policies that would actually strengthen America’s (defense) industrial base.
The global consequences of Trump’s tariff war are already being felt. Trump’s on-again-off-again tariffs – whether universal, bilateral, or sectoral – are reinforcing the very arguments that America’s rivals, most notably the BRICS nations, are using to promote an alternative global order.
China, Russia, and their partners have long sought to challenge U.S. economic dominance, arguing that Washington is an unreliable and destabilizing force. Trump’s tariff wars are, if not proving them right, certainly providing grist for their ideological mill.
At a moment when the United States should be consolidating economic partnerships to blunt China’s efforts to assume a greater economic and geopolitical role, Trump is doing the opposite. Instead of strengthening the U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade bloc to build a more competitive North American industrial base, he is actively undermining it. Instead of cooperating with allies in Europe and Asia to provide a counter-weight to China’s Belt and Road initiative, he is making economic conflict with them inevitable.
Instead of reinforcing a global free trade regime that has long disproportionately benefited American industry he is making the United States a less reliable trading partner and driving Washington’s erstwhile friends, allies and economic partners to explore alternative economic arrangements.
Can Donald Trump Change Course on the Tariff War?
Given the reaction to Trump’s declaration of tariff war – both at home and abroad – the question now is will this administration change course. Unfortunately for both the U.S. and all of its friends and allies, the answer would appear to be no. Unlike in the domain of grand strategy, where his administration has shown at least some capacity to rethink outdated assumptions, his economic instincts remain frozen in a world that hasn’t existed since the mid-19th centuryy. His vision for America’s economy is not a vision at all – at least if by vision one means an ability to think about or plan the future with imagination or wisdom.
Rather, it is a nostalgic delusion, one based on a half-remembered, half-imagined “memory” of America’s 19th century past. If Trump continues to frame U.S. trade policy according to this ill-informed nostalgic delusion, he will not be remembered as the president who restored American greatness, but rather as the one who terminally undermined it – one tariff at a time.
About the Author: Dr. Andrew Latham
Andrew Latham is a non-resident fellow at Defense Priorities and a professor of international relations and political theory at Macalester College in Saint Paul, MN. Andrew is now a Contributing Editor to 19FortyFive, where he writes a daily column. You can follow him on X: @aakatham.
