Summary and Key Points: The U.S. Navy is nearing a decision between Boeing and Northrop Grumman to build its sixth-generation F/A-XX fighter jet under the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program.
-Set to replace older Super Hornets, the new fighter will offer advanced stealth, long-range strike capabilities, autonomous systems, and collaborative combat technologies.
-Boeing recently won the Air Force’s F-47 NGAD contract, while Northrop Grumman successfully developed the B-21 Raider.
-The Navy’s choice hinges not only on aircraft performance but also on the strategic balance of defense contractors, budgetary considerations, and industry health, making this decision critical for the future of U.S. naval aviation.
F/A-XX: Will the Navy’s Next Fighter Get off the Ground?
Later this week, the US Navy is expected to select its next-generation fighter jet program winner. The service’s own Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, separate from the Air Force effort of the same name, will produce a new sixth-generation strike fighter currently known as F/A-XX and still to be named.
Two aerospace titans, Boeing and Northrop Grumman, are reportedly locked in a dogfight to determine the future of naval aviation, with the resulting aircraft set to crowd aircraft carrier flight decks in the 2030s.
The striking arm of the US Navy’s nine carrier air wings consists of F/A-18E and F/A-18F Super Hornets. The Super Hornet joined the fleet in 2001, and the Navy received new production jets until the early 2020s.
The oldest half of the fleet will eventually be replaced by F-35C Lightning II fighters so that by the early 2030s, the four fighter squadrons assigned to every air wing will consist of a mixture of 4th and 5th-generation fighters, roughly two squadrons of newer Super Hornets and two squadrons of Lightning IIs.
Why F/A-XX Matters So Much to the Navy
If all goes according to plan, in the 2030s, a new fighter will begin replacing Super Hornets: F/A-XX. The placeholder designation clearly states that the new fighter, like the Super Hornet, will be a mixed mission strike fighter with fighter (F) and attack (A) duties. The XX is a placeholder for the eventual aircraft number. By the 2040s, Super Hornets should be completely cycled out of the fleet, and carrier flight decks should consist entirely of F-35C and F/A-XX aircraft.
F/A-XX will be the Navy’s first sixth-generation fighter, and although the exact criteria for a sixth-generation jet have not been set in stone, its list of features reads similar to the Boeing F-47 fighter. Admiral Lisa Franchetti, until recently Chief of Naval Operations, described the jet as a “sixth-generation platform (with) advanced sensors, advanced lethality, advanced range, and…able to integrate with manned and unmanned capabilities together.”
Navy Secretary John Phelan, in prepared remarks for his confirmation hearing, described F/A-XX as “… a F/A-XX next-generation aircraft, offering significant advancements in operational reach and capacity within contested environments, is intended to enable Carrier Strike Groups to outpace adversaries while maintaining naval air dominance.” Phelan said it would utilize “technologies like autonomy, mission systems, and communication architectures … including Collaborative Combat Aircraft.”
Who Will Build the Navy NGAD?
Navy NGAD was, until recently, a three-way horse race between Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman. The three aerospace giants are the only companies that could realistically develop and manufacture a cutting-edge jet fighter within the Navy’s timeframe. According to Reuters, Lockheed was recently disqualified from the competition, reportedly because it was unable to meet the Navy’s requirements.
That leaves Northrop Grumman and Boeing. Boeing, whose problems are well known, was announced as the winner of the Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance fighter program and will develop and produce the F-47. Northrop Grumman is in the final stages of developing the B-21 Raider program, the world’s first sixth-generation warplane; the aircraft is currently in low-rate initial production and should enter service sometime in the late 2020s.
We don’t know the designs Northrop Grumman and Boeing intend to put forward, but design isn’t the only factor involved in selection. The US government is attempting to resuscitate the defense industrial base, and one criterion might well be to have three large and healthy aerospace companies with the skills to build fighter jets. Lockheed Martin is currently producing all three versions of the F-35 and can count on business from that program, ranging from aircraft production to future upgrades and sustainment until the 2080s. Boeing has the F-47 to develop and build well into the 2040s.
On the other hand, Northrop Grumman has not competed to build a fighter jet since the early 1990s. The YF-23 Black Widow was a contender for the Advanced Tactical Fighter program but lost to the Lockheed Martin YF-22, which later became the F-22 Raptor. Technically, the last successful fighter built by any arm of the company was the F-14 Tomcat. Since the late 1990s, the company has concentrated on the B-2 and B-21 bombers and unmanned aircraft such as the Global Hawk.
Given Boeing’s F-47 win, the Navy might be concerned that awarding F/A-XX to the same company could result in it being stretched too thin to resource two world-beating fighters adequately. On the other hand, a commonality of systems between two different jets, managed by one company, could be good for the joint force and on a cost basis. (While critics might point out that Lockheed Martin struggled to build three different variants of the F-35, it is worth saying the F-47 and F/A-XX are two completely different aircraft that, unlike the F-35, will lack overlapping technical constraints such as volume and weight.)
Northrop Grumman already has the B-21 Raider in early production, with an eye toward full-rate production within a few years. The Air Force and B-21 supporters would like to see the bomber buy expanded past the original 100 jets, which could draw additional company resources.
However, manufacturing is not the same as development, and once the B-21 is transitioned to full-rate production, the company will have development resources freed up for a Navy fighter program. Northrop Grumman has also done an impressive job with the B-21 Raider, which has faced relatively minor 12-18 month delays but come in on budget, an incredible feat for a clean-sheet aircraft.
A Contest of Competence in the Sky
In an ideal world, each company would present its vision for a Navy sixth-generation fighter, and the best design would win. However, there are considerations beyond the battlefield, and even the competition that led to the F-22 was reportedly influenced by the Air Force’s turbulent relationship with Northrop as it built the B-2.
The result was the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor. The Navy NGAD program won’t just be a competition between aircraft designs. It will be a contest on the competence of the two companies.
About the Author: Kyle Mizokami
A 19FortyFive Contributing editor, Kyle Mizokami is a defense and national security writer based in San Francisco. His work has appeared in Popular Mechanics, Esquire, The National Interest, Car and Driver, Men’s Health, and many others. He is the founder and editor for the blogs Japan Security Watch, Asia Security Watch, and War Is Boring.
