The B-21 Raider bomber, developed by Northrop Grumman, is set to become a cornerstone of the U.S. Air Force’s strategic capabilities.
However, the projected delivery schedule, with the bomber not being fully accepted into service until the 2030s and delivered in small batches of around 10 per year, raises several concerns and strategic implications.
B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber. Image Credit: Industry Handout.
Only 10 B-21 Raider Bombers per Year?
This news was delivered at the annual Air Force Association (AFA) convention in 2023 by Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies director of future concepts, Mark Gunzinger. There Gunzinger announced that “it looks like the B-21 acquisition rate is going to top out at around 10 per year sometime in the 2030s.”
Meaning that when the B-21 is ready, we can expect delivery rates of 10 per year AT MOST (most years will most likely deliver less). This is a concerning prospect for many reasons.
The slow production rate means that it will take a significant amount of time to build a substantial fleet. Given the Air Force’s plan to field at least 100 B-21 Raiders, this gradual buildup may hinder the Air Force’s ability to quickly replace aging bombers like the B-1 Lancer and B-2 Spirit.
Budgetary constraints and potential cost overruns could further slow production. The B-21 program is expensive, with costs expected to exceed $200 billion. The Air Force has already seen a decrease in the Raider budget from over $19 billion to just under $14 billion for the initial five production lots.
Integrating new technology into the B-21 Raider is crucial for its success. However, the slow production rate may mean that technological advancements could outpace the bomber’s development, requiring continuous updates and modifications. This could lead to increased costs and further delays.
The B-21 Raider is designed to serve as the backbone of the Air Force’s air-based leg of America’s nuclear triad. Its ability to deliver both conventional and nuclear ordnance is vital for deterrence.
A slow production rate could weaken the U.S.’s deterrence capabilities, especially as adversaries like China continue to develop its own next-generation bombers. The gradual delivery of the B-21 Raiders means that the Air Force may face challenges in maintaining operational readiness.
The aging fleet of B-1 and B-2 bombers will need to be kept in service longer, potentially leading to increased maintenance costs and reduced reliability. This could impact the Air Force’s ability to conduct long-range strike missions effectively.
Is America Neglecting its Strategic Needs?
The B-21 Raider is expected to provide flexible global strike capabilities. However, as Gunzinger points out, the slow buildup of the fleet may limit the Air Force’s ability to respond to emerging threats and crises. A smaller fleet may not be able to cover multiple theaters of operation simultaneously, reducing strategic flexibility.
Maintaining a technological edge is crucial for the U.S. military. The B-21 Raider’s advanced stealth capabilities and integration of modern technologies are designed to ensure this edge.
However, delays in production and delivery could allow adversaries to catch up or even surpass U.S. capabilities in stealth and long-range strike technologies.
The previous administration made little effort to increase or sustain a suitable number of strategic aircraft. With the Trump administration trying to reign in the defense budget, there are concerns that this trend of strategic complicity will continue into the future.
With the USAF trying to retire its aging B1 and B2 bombers, the US bomber fleet is already at the lowest it has been in recent years. The longer the U.S. waits to get its act together, the more time we give our adversaries to catch up.
What Should the U.S. do?
To address these challenges, the Air Force and Northrop Grumman could explore ways to accelerate production. This might involve increasing funding (which is unlikely to happen), streamlining manufacturing processes, or leveraging additional production facilities. Accelerating production would help build the fleet more quickly and enhance operational readiness. According to Gunzinger, however, the biggest barrier is the budget.
To bridge the gap until the B-21 Raider is fully operational, the Air Force could invest in upgrading existing bombers like the B-52 Stratofortress. Enhancements to avionics, stealth capabilities, and weapon systems could extend the service life of these bombers and maintain a credible deterrent. Even keeping our existing B-1s and B-2s may also be an option.
These suggestions come with their own sets of issues, however, in my opinion its preferable to letting our bomber fleet slowly whittle away while China and Russia increase theirs.
The slow production and delivery schedule of the B-21 Raider bomber presents several challenges and strategic implications for the U.S. Air Force. From budget constraints to operational readiness and deterrence capabilities, the gradual buildup of the fleet could impact the Air Force’s ability to maintain a credible and flexible global strike capability.
However, by exploring accelerated production, interim solutions, international collaboration, and continuous technological innovation, the Air Force can mitigate these challenges and ensure that the B-21 Raider fulfills its role as a cornerstone of America’s strategic defense.
B-21 Raider Photos:
B-21 Raider. Image Credit: U.S. Air Force.
B-21 Raider. Image Credit: U.S. Air Force.
B-21 Raider
About the Author and Expertise
Isaac Seitz, a 19FortyFive Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
