The Air Force Isn’t Ready for What Is Coming

Key Points and Summary: Modern Russian and Chinese air defense systems significantly threaten the U.S. Air Force’s global air superiority. Russia’s advanced S-400, S-300, and S-500, alongside short-range systems like Pantsir-S1, create dense Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) zones, limiting U.S. operational freedom.

-China’s HQ-9, HQ-22, and HQ-19 missile systems similarly challenge U.S. capabilities, integrating advanced radars and distributed defenses.

-Overcoming these threats requires continued investment in next-generation aircraft, enhanced stealth, electronic warfare, hypersonic weapons, and allied coordination. Addressing these sophisticated air defenses is critical for maintaining strategic dominance and deterrence against potential adversaries.

Russian & Chinese Air Defenses: Can the U.S. Air Force Stay Ahead?

The United States Air Force (USAF) has long been a dominant force in global air superiority, leveraging advanced technology and strategic prowess. However, the evolving landscape of modern air defense systems, particularly those developed by Russia and China, poses significant challenges. These systems are designed to detect, track, and neutralize aerial threats, thereby complicating the USAF’s operational capabilities. 

Russia has invested heavily in developing sophisticated air defense systems, creating a multi-layered network capable of defending against a wide range of aerial threats. Key systems include the S-400 Triumf, S-300, and the newer S-500 Prometheus, with numerous short-range systems. While the conflict in Ukraine has exposed many cracks in Russia’s air defenses, they are still highly capable and pose a significant threat to American airpower.

The S-400 is arguably one of the most advanced long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems in the world. It can engage a variety of targets, including aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and ballistic and cruise missiles, at ranges up to 400 km and altitudes up to 30 kilometers. The system’s radar can track up to 300 targets simultaneously, making it a formidable barrier against aerial incursions. 

The S-300 series, including the S-300PMU-2, remains a critical component of Russia’s air defense. It offers high mobility and can engage multiple targets at various ranges and altitudes. The S-300’s ability to integrate with other defense systems enhances its effectiveness in creating a layered defense network. 

The S-500 is the latest addition to Russia’s air defense arsenal. It is designed to counter not only traditional aerial threats but also hypersonic missiles and low-orbit satellites. Initial state trials revealed that the system was reportedly able to engage and hit targets from a range of 482 km. With only one regiment in service, the S-500 is the rarest of Russia’s long-range tactical defense systems

The Pantsir-S1 deserves mention as well. The Pantsir-S1 is a short-range air defense (SHORAD) system designed to protect ground forces and longer-range systems like the ones described above. It features twelve 57E6 missiles and two 30mm 2A38M cannons, allowing it to engage up to four targets simultaneously. It can track up to 20 targets at ranges from 32-36 km away (the upgraded Pantsir-SM reportedly ups this range to 40 km). According to Russian sources the Pantsir has successfully intercepted Western made systems like the British Storm Shadow cruise missile and the American ATACMS ballistic missile (take such claims with a grain of salt).

These systems collectively create an Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) environment, making it challenging for the USAF to operate freely in contested airspace. The integration of these systems with advanced radar and electronic warfare capabilities further complicates the USAF’s ability to conduct successful missions without significant risk. Russia’s air defense systems are heavily integrated and highly sophisticated, making them difficult to penetrate using conventional air systems.

China has also made substantial advancements in its air defense capabilities, focusing on both indigenous development and the acquisition of foreign technology. Key systems include the HQ-9, HQ-22, and the HQ-19. 

The HQ-9 is a long-range SAM system comparable to the Russian S-300. It employs a combination of radar and infrared guidance to engage a variety of targets, including aircraft and missiles, at ranges up to 300 km. The HQ-9’s ability to integrate with other Chinese defense systems enhances its effectiveness in a networked defense environment. 

The HQ-22 is a medium- to long-range air defense system designed to replace older systems like the HQ-2. It features semi-active radar homing and radio-command guidance, with a range of up to 170 kilometers. The HQ-22 is noted for its cost-effectiveness and capability to engage multiple targets simultaneously. 

The HQ-19 is an anti-ballistic missile system designed to intercept medium-range ballistic missiles and even satellites. Often compared to the US’ THAAD system, the HQ-19 entered service in 2015, making it one of China’s newer AD systems. 

China’s air defense strategy emphasizes the creation of a robust, multi-layered defense network capable of countering a wide range of aerial threats. The integration of these systems with advanced radar and command-and-control networks enhances their effectiveness, posing a significant challenge to the USAF’s operational capabilities. While not as sophisticated or integrated as Russia’s systems, China’s air defenses are more heavily distributed and more mobile.

The advancements in Russian and Chinese air defense systems have several strategic implications for the USAF. The sophisticated radar and missile capabilities of these systems make it difficult for the USAF to penetrate defended airspace without significant risk. This necessitates the development of new tactics and technologies to counter these threats. 

The USAF’s reliance on stealth technology, such as the F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II, is challenged by the advanced radar systems employed by Russian and Chinese defenses. Enhancing electronic warfare capabilities and developing new stealth technologies are critical to maintaining air superiority.

 Countering advanced air defense systems requires significant investment in new technologies and platforms. This includes the development of next-generation aircraft, hypersonic weapons, and advanced electronic warfare systems. 

Balancing these investments with other defense priorities is a strategic challenge for the USAF. Strengthening alliances and enhancing interoperability with allied air forces is crucial for countering the A2/AD capabilities of Russia and China. Joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and coordinated defense strategies are essential components of this approach.

The threat posed by modern Russian and Chinese air defense systems to the USAF is significant and multifaceted. These systems’ advanced capabilities create a challenging operational environment, necessitating the development of new tactics, technologies, and strategic approaches.

Only by investing in next-generation technologies, enhancing electronic warfare capabilities, and strengthening alliances, can the USAF mitigate these threats and maintain its position as a dominant force in global air superiority.

About the Author: Isaac Seitz 

Isaac Seitz, a 19FortyFive Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.