The B-21 Raider is a topic that comes up again and again in defense circles. With revolutionary stealth technology and avionics, it promises a quantum leap for the United States’ strategic bomber fleet. However, due to its staggeringly high cost, the B-21 has also been at the center of many debates.
While it is undoubtedly everything the designers say it is, there is a very real concern on how many bombers the U.S. can afford to procure.
And that’s a nightmare to be sure. The program right now is floated to cost around $203 billion by most estimates, and could go up dramatically if more B-21 Raider bombers are needed.
The U.S. Needs the B-21 Raider
The B-21 Raider is part of the Long Range Strike Bomber (LRS-B) program, initiated by the USAF in 2011 to develop a next-generation bomber capable of penetrating advanced air defenses and delivering both conventional and nuclear payloads. Northrop Grumman was awarded the development contract in 2015, beating out a competing bid from a Boeing-Lockheed Martin team.
The program has been managed by the Air Force Rapid Capabilities Office, which oversees its development outside the traditional military procurement process to expedite progress and maintain a high level of secrecy.
One of the most important features of the B-21 is its dual-capable nature, meaning it can deliver both conventional and nuclear munitions. This versatility ensures that the B-21 can be used in a wide range of mission scenarios, from strategic deterrence to precision strikes against high-value targets.
The bomber is also designed with an open systems architecture, which allows for easier integration of new technologies and upgrades over its operational life.
The B-21 Raider is expected to carry a variety of munitions, including stand-off and direct-attack weapons. This capability ensures that the bomber can engage targets from a safe distance, reducing the risk to the aircraft and its crew.
Additionally, the B-21 is designed to accommodate both manned and unmanned operations, providing flexibility in how it is deployed.
How Many B-21 Raiders Can the U.S. Afford?
Ever since the bombers inception, here have been debates in defense circles as to how many bombers the U.S. should procure. In 2011, the Air Force placed an order for 100 bombers to be produced. Ever since then, people have argued that the number is either too high or too low.
The primary issue is that the B-21 is an expensive aircraft. With an estimated cost of around $700 million per aircraft, the bomber is a significant financial investment, and each new bomber adds pressure to an already strained defense budget.
Despite its high cost, Air Force officials believe that America needs more B-21s. According to an article by National Defense, Air Force Gen. Anthony Cotton, Stratcom commander, said March 18 that the number of B-21s should be increased from 100 to 145 at least. His reasoning is quite interesting, he argues that “The production rate that was agreed upon was, I think, in [that] geopolitical environment.
That’s a little different than the geopolitical environment that we will face for decades to come. Hence, I, as a customer, would love to see larger production rates.” In other words, the decision to order 100 B-21s in 2011 reflected the geopolitical needs of that time, and now things have changed.
Proponents like Cotton argue that the US needs the B-21 because of the shifting geopolitical landscape. With threats like China and Russia growing bolder, America needs to maintain its nuclear deterrence. “Maintaining and sustaining a credible nuclear deterrent isn’t that expensive in the grand scheme of things, current funding of a nuclear portfolio around 4 percent of the DoD budget,” Cotton said at the McAleese and Associates annual Defense Programs Conference.
The Catch: Geopolitical Needs Meet Economic Reality
However, critics still argue against procuring more than 100 B-21s. One of the most significant arguments against is the high cost associated with the program. Each B-21 is estimated to cost around $700 million, and the total program cost could exceed $203 billion.
Given the already strained defense budget and the fact that DoD may be facing budget cuts in the near future, allocating additional funds to procure more B-21s could divert resources from other critical defense programs and priorities.
Procuring more than 100 B-21s could present significant production and maintenance challenges. The production rate for the B-21 is deliberately slow to safeguard the program from budget cuts. Increasing the number of bombers produced annually could strain the production process and lead to delays and cost overruns.
Additionally, maintaining a larger fleet would require substantial investments in infrastructure, training, and logistics, further increasing the program’s overall cost.
There are strategic and tactical alternatives to procuring more B-21s that could achieve similar objectives at a lower cost. For example, investing in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and long-range precision strike capabilities could complement the B-21 and provide additional flexibility.
These alternatives could offer a more cost-effective way to enhance the USAF’s strike capabilities without the need for a larger fleet of manned bombers.
The security environment is constantly evolving, and the threats faced by the USAF today may not be the same in the future. Committing to a larger fleet of B-21s now could limit the USAF’s ability to adapt to changing circumstances.
By maintaining a more modest procurement plan, the USAF can retain the flexibility to adjust its force structure and capabilities in response to emerging threats and technological advancements.
How do you Solve a Problem Like the B-21 Raider?
The B-21 debate is a complicated issue. On one hand, the U.S. needs the B-21 to maintain nuclear deterrence in the face of growing geopolitical adversaries. On the other hand, the DoD is running a tight budget, and the B-21 is an extremely expensive investment.
Ultimately the answer comes down to what the DoD chooses to prioritize and how the budget is allocated. Ideally, it would be nice to have as many B-21s as possible, at the same time America’s resources are not unlimited.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a 19FortyFive Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
