Summary and Key Points: The Trump administration’s Defense Oversight and Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative raises concerns about Pentagon budget cuts, but likely won’t undermine essential programs like the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter.
-Despite DOGE’s emphasis on streamlining expenses, Trump’s historical commitment to robust military modernization indicates continued support for critical projects. The NGAD, a 6th-generation stealth fighter, is vital given China’s own advancements in aircraft technology.
-Featuring unmatched stealth, maneuverability, and AI-driven drone teaming, NGAD promises a transformative leap in air combat capabilities. Given these factors, NGAD is poised to remain integral to U.S. defense strategy despite fiscal scrutiny.
Could NGAD Get Cancelled? It Would Be a Mistake
Is DOGE coming for the U.S. military? Despite the apparent hysteria surrounding the recent announcement that the Pentagon’s budget will be reviewed, analyzed, and “cut” to an extent, it seems complicated to envision any scenario in which the Trump administration does not “rebuild” the arguably somewhat embattled US military.
Evidence from the first Trump administration would lend credibility to the President’s message on the campaign trail that his administration would again massively strengthen the US military.
This effort to significantly strengthen the US military through weapons modernization, innovation, sheer size, and equipment expansion is not incompatible with current DOGE efforts to significantly streamline Pentagon spending for increased efficiency.
For decades, US political and military leaders have operated within a clear consensus that waste and unnecessary expenditures need to be removed from the DoD budget; there are likely many ways to adjust spending to increase efficiency and eliminate spending that is not required, all while simultaneously building up and significantly strengthening US military lethality, technological sophistication, size and power.
Anything other than this would seem almost inconceivable given Trump’s record and the current global threat environment, characterized by what most regard as a highly perilous and worsening situation for the US.
Following this logic, which has historical precedent in the previous Trump administration, it would make sense that the major US weapons systems in development may stay the course or even expand.
NGAD Must Survive
All of this context explains the potential scenario surrounding the future of the Air Force’s Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) 6th-generation stealth fighter program.
It would seem perilous for the Pentagon to abandon this effort, and DOGE and Trump administration decision-makers will likely agree with this view.
Significant amounts of money can be saved, cuts can go into effect, and spending efficiencies can be implemented without massively compromising NGAD and other critical efforts such as Naval fleet expansion.
It seems unlikely that NGAD will disappear for several key reasons, the largest of which simply relates to the seriousness of the current threat circumstance.
Not long ago, as many as two 6th-generation Chinese aircraft appeared on social media, fueling speculation that the People’s Liberation Air Force may advance unprecedented 6th-gen stealth fighter technology.
There is not enough information about China’s 6th-gen efforts or the largely secret or “black” US NGAD program to determine which country might be in the race for 6th-generation air attack power.
The USAF NGAD is already airborne and reportedly incorporates an entire suite of paradigm-changing technologies. Given China’s efforts, it seems clear that it would be hazardous for the US to abandon its 6th-gen effort.
NGAD: Future of Manned-Unmanned Teaming
For example, NGAD may be the stealthiest, fastest, and most lethal fighter jet ever to exist, particularly given that early industry aircraft renderings feature a tailless, finless, blended wing-body horizontal configuration.
This would suggest that new levels of maneuverability or vectoring capacity can be achieved in a much stealthier platform than previously associated with fighter jets. NGAD will also coordinate closely with groups of “drones” called Combat Collaborative Aircraft.
NGAD and stealthy, forward-operating surveillance and attack drones could prove critical in a modern threat environment in which many air defenses are increasingly known to be capable of tracking some stealth platforms.
The operation concept would be for a manned 6th-generation aircraft to control groups of unmanned systems from the cockpit and, using cutting edge AI, aggregate, organize, and analyze volumes of incoming sensor data in real time and with low latency.
This would expedite the sensor-to-shooter curve and bring paradigm-changing levels of lethality, manned-unmanned teaming, and command and control capability to the realm of US air attack.
Why would such capabilities be cut when NGAD seems so vital?
About the Author: Kris Osborn
Kris Osborn is the Military Technology Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
