F-35 vs. JAS 39 Gripen Is Now Happenning: Canada and Portugal are frustrated with U.S. foreign policy. The mercurial Donald Trump has placed both of the NATO members in a state of shock due to vacillating American strategy concerning the war in Ukraine and the perceived lack of support for Volodymyr Zelensky.
Canada is furious about the trade war of reciprocal tariffs that Trump is instigating with the Great White North.
JAS 39 vs. F-35: U.S. ‘Fighter Plane Diplomacy’ Could Suffer
This makes “fighter plane diplomacy,” something the United States has conducted so well with airplanes like the F-35 Lightning II, difficult to execute at present. The Canadians and Portuguese may cancel their orders of the stealth fighter and that has many in the defense world wondering if those air forces could order Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen fighter instead.
The F-35 Is Showing that It Is Combat-proven
The Gripen is a capable jet. It is a 4.5-generation bird that has all of the features you would expect from that designation. But it is not as stealthy as the fifth-generation F-35. Plus, the American Lightning II is a flying computer that can be updated with Mission Data Files after combat. This unique software capability has shown it is mightily effective during combat missions in the Middle East. The Israelis have their own F-35I Adir variant that they have souped up in an excellent fashion. Pilots get done with one mission and give input on how the airplane flew and then the software can be upgraded.
Israeli F-35s Are Dominating the Middle East
Israel flew the F-35I in a “bloody nose” attack against the Iranians last autumn. The Adir took out an ample number of Iranian air defenses and missile-building sites and did not receive a scratch. It has been flying against Hamas in Gaza, and the F-35I has even conducted missions in “beast mode” with a bigger weapons capacity to better punish Israel’s enemies.
Nineteen countries have either ordered or are now flying the F-35. The JAS 39 Gripen has tried to compete in the export market with the F-35, but it has been touch and go. Sweden, Brazil, South Africa, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Thailand have the Gripen, and they seem to be satisfied, but that is not a lot of customers compared to the F-35’s market share.
Keep An Eye on Canada
Canada will be a huge test case for the rivalry between the F-35 and the Gripen. The Canadians have ordered 88 F-35s, and some have already been paid for. Would the new prime minister, Mark Carney, cancel the entire lot? He has told his defense minister to review the order and perhaps come up with substitutes. The Gripen would be a good alternative choice, but this poses problems.
Let’s say the Canadians have a mixture of F-35s and Gripens. Then, there would have to be additional training for pilots, plus testing and evaluation of two different airframes. Both take a while to get used to, and the Canadian Air Force would have to create two pipelines to educate pilots.
Plus, Canada would need a separate relationship with the two countries for spare parts and maintenance support. That would mean again two separate training activities for ground crews.
Plus, the F-35 is a quarterback in the sky that can someday operate Loyal Wingman drones full-time, and these aerial buddies are becoming capable with the advent of the Collaborative Combat Aircraft. The Gripen is not able to conduct these types of complicated drone mothership missions.
=Sweden has to convince countries that the Gripen is the correct choice, but this has proved elusive. Even their neighbor Finland opted for the F-35 to replace its F/A-18 Hornets. The CEO of Saab said that it is difficult to compete against the F-35.
“It is extremely frustrating, to say the least, and I can say that it is not about the [Gripen] product that we have developed and manufactured,” Saab CEO Micael Johansson told reporters in 2022. “If it had been a completely level playing field in terms of not talking about security, politics, and other areas, then I think we would have been much better off.”
Doubts About U.S. Priorities in Defense Policy
However, the United States is undergoing a different leadership role in the democratic world order. NATO members are not sure the Americans will come to their rescue if Russia attacks an alliance member.
The F-35 may be better than the JAS 39 Gripen, but Canada and Portugal could still pull the trigger on the Swedish-made jet.
F-35 manufacturer Lockheed Martin hopes that geopolitical and strategic changes to American foreign policy will not crimp sales. The F-35 is responsible for an estimated 250,000 high-paying jobs with advanced technological breakthroughs. Trump doesn’t want to lose these manufacturing jobs.
Meanwhile, Sweden has its own defense industrial base to look after. The Swedes are tired of playing second-fiddle to the Americans and losing out to the F-35. This may be the time where they can capture some more interest.
Canada will be the proving ground for the competition, and there could be both F-35s and Gripens in the fleet. That would disappoint the Americans and send shock waves to Lockheed Martin.
This may make U.S. fighter plane diplomacy with the F-35 suffer.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
