Article Summary and Key Points: It was bound to happen. One country could take revenge with President Donald Trump continuing to annoy European allies. The Portuguese government has now said it is reconsidering its effort to buy the F-35 Lightning II stealth jet in a blow to what I call “fighter plane diplomacy.” Trump has instigated tariffs on the European Union – namely, 25 percent levies on steel and aluminum production.
Relations With Europe Are Not Aging Well
He is also not a keen fan of the European continent – imploring NATO members to spend more on defense but denying full security guarantees for members. Trump wants to take over Greenland and Canada as well. Some Europeans think the cease-fire deal that Ukraine has agreed to favors the Russians. Trump has also cut off military and intelligence assistance to Kyiv (although that has been restored). Portugal has simply had it with Trump, and Lisbon is reacting negatively to U.S. fighter plane diplomacy.
Portugal: Thanks, But No Thanks to the F-35
Portugal could use the F-35 to modernize its air force. The Lightning II would replace outdated F-16s in the Portuguese fleet and Lockheed Martin is happy to oblige. Now, Portugal looks like it will pass on the F-35 in an effort to poke the mercurial and inconsistent Trump and the Americans in the eye.
“We cannot ignore the geopolitical environment in our choices. The recent position of the United States, in the context of NATO … must make us think about the best options, because the predictability of our allies is a greater asset to take into account,” according to outgoing Defense Minister Nuno Melo.
What if the Americans Could Hit the ‘Kill Switch’ on the F-35?
Some European allies had fretted about the so-called “kill switch” the Americans could use on the F-35 to punish those that behaved in a way that the United States didn’t like.
This way, Trump could “get even” with “naughty” partners who fly the fifth-generation fighter. This kill switch urban legend has been debunked. However, the United States does have control over software updates and mission data files – assistance the Americans could halt.
Plus, the F-35 partner countries rely on the United States to provide maintenance support, spare parts, and other components to keep the fighter jets in the air.
Nothing to See Here
The defense contractor is still optimistic about the sale. A spokesperson for the manufacturer said, “Lockheed Martin values our strong partnership and history with the Portuguese Air Force and looks forward to continuing that partnership into the future. The F-35 is the most advanced, survivable and connected fighter aircraft in the world, enabling 21st Century Security and allied deterrence. Questions about foreign military sales of the F-35 are best addressed by the U.S. government.”
The Netherlands has said it will not cancel its deal for the F-35, but Lisbon may carry through with the threats. However, Defense Minister Nelo’s government is dissolving and there will be new elections. A different ruling party or coalition may have other ideas about the F-35, but Portugal’s reluctance could be a sign to come for future F-35 exports.
India Could Also Pass on the F-35
India, a staunch U.S. ally, has not pulled the trigger on its potential F-35 deal. It is considering buying the Russian Su-57 stealth fighter instead. India is wondering if the United States would have its back in they ever had to fight a war with Pakistan.
Trump’s foreign policy has undoubtedly been unconventional. Few could have predicted that he would execute Manifest Destiny 2.0 in the Western Hemisphere. He had mentioned Greenland in his first term but now he won’t let the island go its merry way. His Department of Defense is looking at options to make the Panama Canal more amenable to the United States. And he keeps pounding the table to make Canada the 51st state.
Meanwhile, many European governments are frustrated that the president’s views on NATO are so up and down. They yearn for the United States always to be a steadfast ally and are suspicious of Trump’s intentions with Canada and Greenland.
However, this is not a showstopper with the F-35. The Europeans know this is a superior airplane to any other choice on the export market. The fighter has uncanny stealth attributes, high maneuverability, and great allied interoperability.
One Portuguese outgoing defense minister who is frustrated with the United States doesn’t mean the rest of Europe feels that way. Portugal will eventually go with the F-35 or face the prospect of flying non-stealth F-16s.
However, Trump must be careful not to antagonize Europe needlessly. The Europeans are a stodgy, old-fashioned bunch who do not like new wrinkles in American foreign policy. But this has happened before. Many governments on the continent were extremely frustrated with the United States during the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Still, they eventually came around and formed a coalition to fight in Afghanistan.
Look for fighter plane diplomacy to triumph once again. The F-35 is a superior product and NATO members will just have to get used to the ins and outs of Trump’s foreign policy that focuses on “America First.” International relations that promote national interest are nothing new, and the United States believes that it can keep America great and still have diplomatic success in Europe.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
