Could Germany Refuse to Buy the F-35?: Germany is frustrated with the United States and its foreign policy – mainly because of inconsistent American support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. The Donald Trump administration has an up and down relationship with Volodymyr Zelensky. Germany offers full-throated support for the Ukrainian leader while the Americans hem and haw.
Moreover, Germany, as part of the European Union, will be one of the countries that suffer under Trump’s trade war against the bloc – namely because of a 25 percent U.S. levy on steel and aluminum products.
LUKE AIR FORCE BASE, Ariz. – Col. (ret) Jim Greenwald, previous 944th Fighter Wing commander, flies his F-35 Lightning II over the state of Arizona, June 3, 2021. The 944th FW is the Air Force Reserve Command’s most diverse fighter wing as it’s the only wing that trains on four different airframes: the F-35 Lightning II, F-16 Fighting Falcon, F-15E Strike Eagle, and the A-10 Thunderbolt II. (U.S. Air Force photo/ Tech Sgt. Nestor Cruz)
What About This F-35 ‘Kill Switch’ the Americans ‘Could’ Use
Due to these frustrations, the Germans could reconsider contracts for defense imports from the United States. This could affect the deal for F-35 Lightning IIs. Thirty-five F-35s are on order for $9 billion. The Germans have been influenced negatively by rumors about a U.S. made “kill switch” that the Americans could use to disable the stealth fighters.
This stoppage could theoretically happen if Germany doesn’t behave during the trade war or if it continues to support the conflict in Ukraine which Trump opposes.
While the kill switch gossip has been debunked, these are perilous times for the U.S.-German alliance.
The Americans Have Been Inconsistent in Their Support for Ukraine
The United States has also cut off intelligence assistance to the Ukrainians, although this looks like it will be restored due to the recent inroads made with peace negotiations with Zelensky.
But the Germans believe that they could fall under the same restrictions someday.
U.S. Role in the Possibility of Nuclear Conflict
Also, the Americans provide a nuclear umbrella over Germany. If the Russians were to consider attacking Europe with nuclear weapons, Vladimir Putin may be deterred from such actions due to U.S. nuclear might.
What if Trump pulls out of NATO and the protection would not be there? Germany only spends 1.5 percent of its GDP on defense.
This is lower than American expectations of two percent and magnitudes less than the new Trump proposal for NATO members to spend 5 percent of their GDP on their militaries.
Trump has threatened in the past that he would refuse to protect NATO allies who do not pay their “fair share.” Germany may feel that the United States is not a reliable partner and wish to go its separate ways.
The Germans Could Cancel the F-35 Purchase: They Fear the ‘Kill Switch’
That could mean canceling the F-35 order and looking to Sweden to supply its fighter jets.
This would be a knife to the U.S. alliance with Berlin, and Trump would be hopping mad, but the Germans must pursue what is best for their national interest. F-35s may not be part of that in the future.
F-35 Fighter. Image Credit: Lockheed Martin.
Former president of the Munich Security Conference Foundation Wolfgang Ischinger believes that the F-35 could be on the chopping block because the United States is an unreliable partner. “If we have to fear that the U.S. could do with future German F-35s what they are currently doing with Ukraine, we could consider terminating the contract,” he said.
While a kill switch does not exist by itself. There are numerous systems and support efforts that the Americans supply to their partners for the F-35. The jet has electronic warfare aspects that need constant updates. There are communications nodes and munitions requirements, not to mention spare parts and new components needed to upgrade the Lightning II. These could presumedly be cut off if the U.S. government wanted to punish Germany. So, Trump does have a sort of kill switch he could use in a worst-case scenario.
Since Trump has threatened European partners before, what will keep him from cutting off support to Germany’s F-35s? He withdrew from efforts to supply Ukraine with ammunition, weapons, and intelligence. If the Germans had to fight a war, would Trump stop support for the F-35?
‘Fighter Plane Diplomacy’ Could Be Dying Out
This is a scenario Berlin fears and that may sour them on the F-35 deal. All of these machinations comprise what I call “fighter plane diplomacy,” and this concept has been turned on its head in recent weeks. The F-35 has been exceedingly popular overseas; over a dozen countries fly it or have ordered it. These sales relationships have created ample goodwill that spurs the American global leadership in international security.
Germany may be one of the first countries to duck out of U.S. fighter plane diplomacy and go their separate ways. There are other jets for sale, although none have the F-35’s fifth-generation stealthiness, maneuverability, combat power, and level of interoperability with allies.
Even India, a strong U.S. ally, has only kicked the tires on the F-35 and may even shockingly buy the Russian Su-57 stealth fighter instead. This is because of skepticism that the United States will not be there to support the Indians if a war is fought against Pakistan.
F-35I Adir. Image Credit: Israeli Air Force.
Former Indian Air Force Air Marshal Anil Chopra has stated that the lack of an ability to depend on the United States, and Washington’s “tendency to exert pressure and abandon allies when its own interests diverge with theirs,” is a factor in India’s reticence to purchase the F-35.
Germany Will Still Take the F-35…For Now
The Germans will probably go along with their F-35 buy. It is the best fighter on the market and the United States has a long list of countries who are satisfied with their use of the Joint Strike Fighter.
However, they are bringing up points that criticize the America First foreign policy strategy conducted by Trump and other MAGA acolytes.
Fighter plane diplomacy that has been effective for years is suffering and the Germans could someday push back on that diplomatic gambit and tell the Americans to go pound sand.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
