The Navy’s Ford-Class Aircraft Carrier Dilemma Is All About China

Summary and Key Points: The U.S. Navy’s Gerald R. Ford-class carriers feature advanced capabilities, including increased sortie rates, enhanced power generation, and electromagnetic launch systems.

-However, their effectiveness depends heavily on strong carrier strike group defenses, currently bolstered by aging Ticonderoga-class cruisers and Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.

-Delays in transitioning to the advanced DDG(X) cruisers could leave significant capability gaps, impacting overall carrier defense.

Moreover, threats from drone warfare, demonstrated effectively in Ukraine, and China’s sophisticated anti-ship missiles in the Indo-Pacific pose additional risks.

-Ensuring the Ford-class carriers reach their full potential requires timely production and integration of new cruisers and adapting strategies against emerging maritime threats.

Why China’s Missiles Could Threaten America’s Gerald R. Ford-Class Carriers

The U.S. Navy’s Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers boast some incredible capabilities. Compared to the previous Nimitz-class carriers, the Gerald R. Ford-class can launch more sorties off their flattops thanks to their electromagnetic aircraft launching system, they can carry more aircraft and fuel, and generate more power. Power generation, in particular, has been one of the class’s strengths, particularly as the U.S. Navy has been testing and provisionally fielding directed energy weapons onto U.S. Navy ships.

Despite the promise held by the Gerald R. Ford-class, several naval developments abroad, as well as potential hiccups in shipbuilding for the U.S. Navy at home, could have a significantly adverse effect on the Ford-class’ capabilities. 

The Sum of All Capabilities: the Aircraft Carrier Strike Group

However, a significant part of the Gerald R. Ford-class’ success hinges, especially in highly contested environments, on the the defense capabilities of its carrier strike groups, and in particular in effectively countering threats from the air: enemy fighter jets and missiles.

At the moment, the U.S. Navy leans heavily on the Ticonderoga-class cruisers. This specialized, air defense-heavy multirole ship boasts 122 Vertical Launch System cells, the highest VLS count in the U.S. Navy for a single ship.

However, the Ticonderoga-class is approaching the end of its service life despite the integration of some upgrades.

The U.S. Navy hopes that the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers can make up for the loss of the Ticonderoga and their large air defense magazines.

Still, the Arleigh Burke-class must also conduct anti-submarine warfare, perform land-attack missions and other mission sets, which naturally limits their ability also to conduct Carrier Strike Group Defense.

The DDG(X) Cruiser

The DDG(X) Cruiser is the U.S. Navy’s replacement for both the Arleigh Burke-class as well as the Ticonderoga and will offer improvements to air and missile defense capabilities while also performing the same missions as the Cold War-era Arleigh Burkes.

Thanks to an increase in missile capacity, greatly expanded power generation, and consequently directed energy weapons for defense against drones, manned fighters, and potentially some surface craft, the DDG(X) is anticipated to be a step change for the Navy.

However, transitioning away from the Ticonderoga-class as well as the Arleigh Burke-class is highly dependent on the DDG(X) ‘s production schedules.

If the DDG(X) ‘s forecast production schedules hold, then the first of the new cruisers will enter service sometime in the early 2030s, barring any unforeseen delays, which would seriously risk the U.S. Navy’s ability to maintain robust Carrier Strike Group air defense.

An increased reliance on the Arleigh Burke-class could compromise the destroyer’s ability to perform other roles like land attack and ASW. Realizing the Gerald R. Ford-class’ full potential is highly contingent on the successful development and rollout of other capital ships within the U.S. Navy.

War in Ukraine

Though the war in Ukraine may be on the cusp of a cease-fire of some sort, for now, the battles along the hundreds of miles of front rage on — as do the advancements in drone warfare, and not least of all, unmanned surface vessels.

Though Ukraine has scored several significant strikes against Russian ships in the Black Sea — perhaps the most important of these was the strike against the Moskva, then the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, using Neptune anti-ship missiles — several significant attacks on Russian warships have been conducted using essentially kamikaze attacks with explosive-laden boats.

While the kinds of unmanned surface drones that Ukraine has launched so successfully against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet would struggle to get through the robust and multi-layered defenses of a carrier strike group, innovative strategies for their application still hold water.

One remarkable development in Ukraine has been the mating of anti-air missiles to naval drones to target and destroy Russian helicopters. Something similar could be achieved with larger anti-ship weaponry mated to unmanned surface vessels.

Indo-Pacific

Looking into the future, the U.S. Navy’s Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers — and indeed, all American aircraft carriers — arguably face a more serious threat now than at any point since the collapse of the Soviet Union, if not the Second World War.

This is thanks to the explosion of Chinese anti-ship missile weaponry, particularly of large “carrier killer” missiles and the country’s plethora of potent missile weaponry.

China’s overlapping umbrellas of anti-ship weaponry extend deep into the Indo-Pacific region, as far as 5,500 kilometers, or nearly 3,400 miles east of the Chinese mainland.

What Happens to the Aircraft Carrier Now? 

Potent warships though they are, the Gerald R. Ford-class faces challenges at home and abroad. For now, the United States Navy can ensure that the DDG(X) design is rolled out on time and within budget to prevent any significant gap in capabilities for Carrier Strike Groups.

Time will tell if that effort has been successful.

About the Author: Caleb Larson 

Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.