True to his nature of always trying to demean or diminish his opposite number in any interaction, Russian President Vladimir Putin was roughly an hour late for the phone call he had scheduled today with United States President Donald Trump. The call had been organized so that the two leaders could discuss a ceasefire agreement for the current war in Ukraine that began with Russia’s unprovoked invasion in February 2022.
Putin was addressing the annual congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, including the country’s top bosses, in Moscow. However, according to news reports, he laughed off the warning that he was leaving late for the call with the US President, which was supposed to begin at 0900 Moscow time.
London’s Daily Mail reports that “as the clock ticked, the dictator appeared in no rush to hot foot it to the Kremlin” for the scheduled conversation. The call was to have begun at 1600 hours in Moscow, which was 0900 today in Washington, DC.
But it was reportedly already 1600 at this point, and the venue where Putin was speaking, the Moscow International House of Music, is a 20-minute drive from the Kremlin—even if you have a fleet of motorcycles and police vehicles clearing out all the traffic in front of you.
The call finally began at 1000 Washington, DC time—about an hour late—and lasted at least 90 minutes. Despite being a longer than usual conversation, there seem to be only a modest number of points on which the US real estate magnate and the former Soviet-era KGB Lt. Col. actually agreed to.
Infrastructure Strikes Off Limits (Maybe)
The US had been pushing for a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire, but the most that Putin would consent to was a 30-day moratorium on strikes on energy infrastructure. Very little, if anything else, was conceded to Trump. Putin also repeated demands that all military aid and intelligence-sharing with the US should stop.
“I am not sure what Putin thinks of Trump when he makes these demands, but if I was the US leader I would be more than slightly offended at what this Russian dictator is asking him to sign up for,” said a Polish defense enterprise director who spoke to 19FortyFive.
“Does he think Trump is so stupid that he will agree to leave Ukraine so defenseless that Putin can just walk in and take the entire country unopposed. I am fairly certain – having lambasted Biden in the election about the disastrous rout that was the US pulling out from Afghanistan in 2021 – that the US president does not want an even worse abandonment of an ally taking place on his watch.”
The White House readout of the call said that Russia “will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire” and that additional negotiations are planned for implementing “a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace.”
There is, however, already a problem with what was supposedly “decided” in this call. The White House statement has suggested that all manner of infrastructure would be off-limits during this ceasefire. But Putin has made no mention of a cessation of attacks on ports, bridges, and other Ukrainian, non-energy infrastructure.
Russian Tank Destroyed by Ukraine Drone Screenshot
Russia also continued attacks on Ukrainian cities, a fact pointed to by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky the same evening that the call took place. He called this agreement a first step and said, “Of course, we are glad that there is a first step, and this is what we offered: silence in the sky and at sea. The Americans offered more, a complete ceasefire. In fact, the Russians refused.”
Oil War
This kind of ceasefire also removes one of the weapons that Ukraine has been using to some extent. This weapon was hitting Putin where it hampers his war effort the most—namely, attacks on the many oil refineries and storage depots scattered across Russia.
Speaking to Politico, Roman Lozibskyi, a soldier and member of the Ukrainian parliament, stated that this aspect of the country’s strategy was working well. Ukrainian attacks have reportedly destroyed some 15 percent of Russia’s oil-refining capacity.
“In essence, Putin has quietly confirmed to Trump how much our deep strikes are hurting the Russian energy sector. This is our card,” he said, making an oblique reference to when Trump had berated the Ukrainian president in a February 28 Oval Office meeting and told him, “You don’t have the cards” in this conflict.
Is An Armistice Even Possible?
Vadim Prokopiev is a former soldier who, in the early days of the war, organized groups of his native Belarusians to fight on the Ukraine side. He explained how it is still quite challenging to see a long-term peace deal bringing this war to a complete end.
“Having an armistice at some point is good—and not bad—in the sense that Ukraine cannot win in an endless war of attrition. But Zelensky does not really need an armistice because he might have to call elections and could lose power,” Prokopiev said. “Putin does not want an end to the fighting because he relies on the war to keep his position. Russia at war is also the only way he stays in power.
“But it is the Europeans who are the ones who really do not need an armistice. They need Ukraine to continue the war. They need Ukraine to keep putting a demographic hole in the population by killing one Russian after another of military age,” the former soldier said.
“It also gives the European nations less Russian soldiers to worry about and gives them more time to re-arm and re-build their own militaries. They realize they have been caught sleeping, and they need to ramp up their military industries to be prepared for Russia’s seemingly endless determination to wage war,” said Prokopiev.
“Tragically, if these negotiations can lead to an armistice, it will not be end of the war. The war will continue under different means,” Prokopiev continued. “For the war to be won Ukraine needs a leadership that can make the country another South Korea and can beat the Russians in the long haul. That is the only way this conflict will be over for good.”
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
