Australia May Never Sail a ‘AUKUS’ Nuclear Submarine

Summary and Key Points: Australia’s involvement in AUKUS faces serious setbacks, primarily due to production delays in U.S. Virginia-class submarines and reliability issues with Britain’s Astute-class submarines.

-The unpredictable nature of American foreign policy further compounds these challenges, creating uncertainty about timely delivery.

-To counter potential gaps, Australia may need to reconsider France’s advanced Suffren-class submarines as a reliable alternative, offering stealth technology, reduced maintenance, and crew efficiency.

-By maintaining strategic flexibility and re-engaging with France, Canberra can secure its maritime defense capabilities without undermining commitments to AUKUS, ensuring its national security and deterrence in the increasingly contested Indo-Pacific region.

No AUKUS Submarine Afterall? 

Australia, a key country in the Indo-Pacific, is part of the highly anticipated AUKUS trilateral alliance with the United States and the United Kingdom.

AUKUS was initially off to a promising start despite a major international incident involving the cancellation of a solidified contract with France.

However, the past few months have made AUKUS turbulent. Not only is US submarine production currently behind schedule, but turbulence in American foreign policy may force Australia to reassess the alliance. With France having more ready nuclear-powered submarines and American production and indecisiveness on display, Australia faces a significant security lapse and conundrum in AUKUS.

Solidifying AUKUS

Initially finalizing plans to build a joint attack-class submarine program with France, Australia would renege on the contract with the former and move forward with the UK and America through AUKUS. The breach of contract cost Australia $584 million and led to a rift in relations with France that was later mended through international mediation.

Two of AUKUS’ mission goals are to enhance Australia’s submarine warfare capabilities with nuclear-powered submarines. Washington will provide Canberra with Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines, solidifying a major trilateral alliance in the Indo-Pacific.

Australia’s older Collins-class submarine technology will be replaced by BAE Systems, one of the top defense companies, to ensure the country has capable SSN-AUKUS/SSN-A attack submarines. Furthermore, Pillar II will enhance quantum technologies, artificial intelligence, electronic warfare, and hypersonic warfare capabilities.

Conundrums in Pillar Two

Though AUKUS was off to a great start and helped solidify growing technological and defense relations between Australia, Britain, and America, the pact faces ongoing hurdles that might jeopardize it. Firstly, US Virginia-class submarine production averages 1.3 subs per year, far below the target goal of 2.3.

Factoring in that the US needs to rebuild its navy to focus on deterring China in the Taiwan Strait and other Indo-Pacific theaters, Australia could wait much longer than expected for the new nuclear-powered submarines—especially as Beijing rapidly grows its naval capabilities, which Washington will need to prioritize to catch up on.

Emphasizing the perpetual stagnation of American naval production, retired Admiral Peter Briggs, who commanded Australia’s submarine fleet, explained that nuclear submarines may never come due to production and technical complexities, and Australia will need to look for alternatives.

America’s Unpredictability Puts the Alliance in Doubt

In 2023, amidst the height of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas War, Senator Roger Wicker of the Senate Armed Services Committee acknowledged production in American maritime capabilities is going much slower than expected and could affect operational capabilities. In the Indo-Pacific, force projection of the US Seventh Fleet and modernization of allies will need to be prioritized to negate freedom of movement of not just the Chinese navy (PLAN) but also the Russian and North Korean fleets.

Simultaneously, clauses in AUKUS state that any US President will have to inform Congress 270 days ahead that any transfer of a Virginia-class submarine will not degrade American underwater operations. With the Administration drifting relations with regional partners and President Trump hinting they’ll sell more ‘degraded’ weapons if allies no longer hold the same status, Australia could be on the receiving end of POTUS’ strong-arm tactics.

Currently, Canberra will need at least three of the five promised nuclear-powered submarines by 2030, but Washington will need to fast-track and prioritize the aging Los Angeles-class fleet. Factoring in current production shortfalls, the US naval fleet buildup could fall 36 percent behind schedule, further hindering Australia’s navy and national defense.

Furthermore, the UK has had production problems delivering the last two Astute-class submarines. The PWR3 reactor is facing issues with powering Britain’s new Dreadnoughts and SSN-AUKUS, with the 2023-2024 report giving a grim “unachievable” rating.

Needing an Alternative if Pillar II’s Timetable Falls

Already facing an aging submarine fleet and delays in production from both the UK and the United States, Australia will need to reassess its national security and fully mend relations with France—this time with a concrete clause that Canberra cannot break contract with.

If the Virginia SSNs aren’t ready for service at their stated timetable, a potentially valuable alternative would be the French-made Suffren-class submarines. These submarines are capable of technological features on par with the US and UK. Suffern-class submarines have state-of-the-art stealth capabilities, which are needed for the Australian fleet to navigate its waters around the Indo-Pacific.

Furthermore, thanks to its stealth technology, Australia can produce critical intelligence for Canberra’s decision-making and give Five Eyes members crucial information, especially if an armed conflict ensues in the Indo-Pacific. The French-made Suffren class requires a much smaller maintenance and operational maneuvering crew.

Australia can maintain its commitments to the AUKUS alliance while enhancing relations with the United States and the United Kingdom. It can also maintain a new threshold with the Suffren-class submarines from France. Canberra will need to not only urgently modernize its aging underwater fleet, holding multiple key relations, and modernization is what Canberra will need to keep national defense up to par but also provide a valuable naval deterrence to any future threats.

About the Author: Julian McBride 

Julian McBride, a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, is a forensic anthropologist and independent journalist born in New York. He is the founder and director of the Reflections of War Initiative (ROW), an anthropological NGO that aims to tell the stories of the victims of war through art therapy. As a former Marine, he uses this technique not only to help heal PTSD but also to share people’s stories through art, which conveys “the message of the brutality of war better than most news organizations.”