Canada is mightily frustrated with the United States. President Donald Trump’s rhetoric about Canada becoming the 51st state grated on the Canadians. The extra tariffs haven’t helped. Canada will have an election for prime minister soon, and candidates are trying to outdo themselves to see which seeker of the throne can be more patriotic with the ability to stand up to the United States with greater confidence. That means Ottawa-Washington defense ties could be in danger.
F-35 American ‘Fighter Plane Diplomacy’ Struggling with Canada
This brings us to what I call “fighter plane diplomacy.” The Americans have been successful in selling the F-35 Lightning II overseas to build higher levels of international cooperation and goodwill. There are 19 countries that are currently flying the Joint Strike Fighter. This has strengthened relations with the United States and partner nations as they become accustomed to operating such an advanced fifth-generation fighter.
But will this diplomatic gambit continue to work with Canada? There is a question about how much of a spell the F-35 has over the Canadians and if fighter plane diplomacy can work its magic again north of the border.
Large F-35 Deal in Danger
Prime Minister Mark Carney has paused the current deal with the Americans, who want to quickly cement the offer of 88 F-35s to Canada for $19 billion. So far, Canada has only agreed to buy the first batch of 16 fighters.
Canadians Need More Time to Review F-35 Agreement
Carney has placed the entire deal into review status, which he claims will be conducted speedily by his defense forces. However, the actual review process has not even started, and this is putting the whole agreement into jeopardy. What are the Canadians going to do about this huge F-35 order?
The liberal leader is being vague and coy about what will happen next. “That instruction will be carried out,” Carney told journalists at a campaign stop in the Montreal suburbs April 15. “We’re in caretaker mode as a government. Our expectation of the civil service is that they are proceeding on these fronts. We’ll do it as rapidly as possible, as necessary.”
A government spokesperson offered no other clues other than to “establish the scope of the review.” Conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre said if elected, his administration would also review the contract and to make sure Canada’s “independence and sovereignty” is kept in mind.
This Is Not Looking Good for the F-35 Sale to Canada
This does not look good for the F-35 deal, as neither candidate is certain what the future holds. If we assume that Canada needs a fighter jet to modernize its fleet, the country’s military may be looking at other models besides the F-35.
Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen is one option. The Gripen is probably the best fighter you have never heard of. It is a single-engine multirole warbird that has surprising speed and agility. However, it is not stealthy like the F-35. The Czech Republic and Hungary fly it. South Africa and Thailand have also ordered it, and Colombia and Portugal are evaluating it, so it is popular on the export market. Saab is currently negotiating with the Canadians for a Gripen sale.
South Korea Has New-Found Optimism About its New Fighter Jet
The South Koreans are in the background licking their chops and hoping the Canadians will give them a shot at a fighter deal. South Korea has the next-generation KF-21 Boramae (Hawk), which could be considered a less expensive alternative to the F-35. However, the KF-21 program is nowhere near the maturity of the Lightning II. But South Korea is in the process of working the “kinks” out of its new fighter program. The United Arab Emirates is interested in being a KF-21 partner. The UAE may even take part in a test flight of a KF-21 prototype soon.
South Korea’s KF-21 Boramae is entering mass production, positioning KAI as a global defense leader. With Poland and other buyers interested, can it challenge the F-35 in export markets?
F-35 Doomed in Canada? Not Exactly
So, Canada has options. The Gripen would be the lead airplane to take the place of the F-35, but the South Koreans could have an interest from Canada down the road.
One issue that the Canadians have is interoperability with their new airplanes. If they accept the first batch of F-35s and then purchase Gripens or the KF-21 in the future, they will need a completely new type of logistical infrastructure to support the different aircraft. The idea behind the F-35 is that it would give support to the aircraft from its home in Fort Worth, Texas. This certainty is what makes U.S. fighter plane diplomacy with the United States so alluring. With the Gripen, Canada would then have to instead depend on the Swedes to help train pilots and provide maintenance and spare parts support. Same with South Korea.
It may be easier logistically to buy all of the F-35s. However, that would mean the Canadians would depend even more on the United States, which is not popular politically now. Thus, Carney and Poilievre have difficult military decisions to make, and they will put the decision off until after the election.
No one wants to say the Great White North has a perfect relationship with the United States. Campaigning on the importance of Canadian nationalism, patriotism, and sovereignty is what this election will be about. “Canada is not for sale,” as the slogan goes.
It is difficult to predict what will happen. The F-35 is a better airplane. The Gripen is not bad either, and the KF-21 is intriguing. There is an election campaign centered on Canadian patriotism and the unpopularity of the United States. Both politicians are unsure about the F-35. However, having two different kinds of fighters will be challenging due to the need for simultaneous maintenance and training support from both Sweden and the United States.
Stay tuned. We know that Lockheed Martin is trying to read the tea leaves to see if Canada will fulfill that big order, while Saab continues to negotiate with the South Koreans, currently in third place. This may take some time to sort out.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
