China has spent much time and effort building a credible aircraft carrier force; it plans to have six aircraft carriers operational by 2035. But the plan for these flattops is not to take on U.S. carriers in head-to-head battles.
The Chinese want to defeat or deter U.S. carriers long enough for their forces to invade Taiwan. China will rely on working under the cover of their extensive anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) network, which is aimed at neutralizing the U.S. Navy’s power-projection capabilities—particularly its aircraft carriers—within the first island chain.
Chinese aircraft carriers will operate within this protective A2/AD bubble, keeping them out of the harmful reach of U.S. carriers. Thus, they will exert dominance in the region without having to get into a carrier war at all.
China’s Aircraft Carriers: Training Exercises Show PLAN Isn’t Ready
It is one thing to build an aircraft carrier, but it is quite another to use one to project power at the head of a carrier strike group. The Russians learned this the hard way with their lone carrier in Syria. Chinese carriers are in much better shape than the smoke-spewing hulk the Russians operate, the Admiral Kuznetsov, but they are still about a decade away from being able to conduct carrier operations far from Chinese shores.
For now, Chinese carriers are a very clever propaganda machine. They are used to show growing Chinese power and send a clear message to their neighbors that U.S. power in the region is fading.
It is doubtful that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) could protect its carriers on actual power-projection missions deep into the Pacific and Indian Oceans. China’s state-run media portrays the PLAN carriers’ short deployments as operations that challenge the U.S. and its allies. However, several naval officers from different countries told Reuters that these operations are just Chinese training missions, as its carrier operations are still in their infancy.
Night Operations, Bad Weather, Carrier Protection Not Ready
As detailed above, the Chinese carriers still operate close to their shores and under the protection of A2/AD. And in many instances, Chinese pilots take off or land from Chinese airfields, rather than from the carriers.
The IISS recently analyzed the joint carrier operation carried out by the Liaoning and Shandong carriers with their respective escort groups. It certainly seemed to show a leap in Chinese naval capability, which was typically crowed about in the state-run media. They portrayed the operation in much the same way the U.S. Navy does, as a projection of regional power.
But was this just a photo opportunity, or did it demonstrate an actual capability to conduct complex multi-carrier operations? The U.S. Navy has been doing this for more than 80 years. The Chinese have shown that they plan to conduct such operations, but learning to do so takes time.
Night operations and operations in bad weather are staples of American carrier operations, as are continuous flight operations, which the Chinese haven’t yet mastered.
“The continuous operation of its carriers sits at the very core of what makes the U.S. military absolutely preeminent,” said Singapore-based defense analyst Alexander Neill.
Some of the experts say China’s carriers would be vulnerable to missile and submarine attacks, noting that the People’s Liberation Army Navy has not perfected protective screening operations, particularly antisubmarine warfare.
“Unlike other parts of their military modernization, there is something politically theatrical about their carrier deployments so far,” said Trevor Hollingsbee, a former British naval intelligence analyst.
“Carrier operations are a very complicated game, and China’s got to figure this out all by itself. It still has a long, long way to go.”
China’s third carrier, the Fujian, is bigger and equipped for Catapult-Assisted Take-Off But Arrested Recovery operations, enabling the carrier to take on a greater quantity and variety of aircraft and also to allow those aircraft to carry heavier payloads than would be possible if using a ramp-assisted carrier.
The Fujian hasn’t yet conducted air operations during her sea trials, but that will happen soon. Importantly, the Fujian is conventionally powered. Future Chinese carriers will be nuclear-powered, giving them unlimited range.
The Waiting Game Until The US Is No Longer The Dominant Power
Chinese carrier strike groups are still in their infancy. The carriers aren’t even mentioned in military journals discussing the invasion of Taiwan. However, the Chinese are patient and will use carriers to exert their diplomatic, political, and military influence to support their interests.
So, why does China want aircraft carriers? Beijing plans to use them to project Chinese power and influence in a post-American world.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a 19FortyFive National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing for 19FortyFive, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
