Summary and Key Points: The Dassault Rafale fighter experienced years of slow production due to limited export success. Recently, however, orders surged from nations like Greece, Indonesia, UAE, and India, significantly increasing demand.
-Dassault aims to increase production from two to potentially five aircraft per month, but faces challenges in scaling up due to supply chain bottlenecks and skilled labor shortages.
-The French Air Force is also expanding its Rafale fleet, including the advanced F5 variant.
-Future growth may necessitate a second global production facility, especially given renewed Indian interest and rising global demand, despite ongoing supply chain and manufacturing hurdles.
Dassault Rafale Fighter Is For Sale: A Fighter Powerhouse
The period around 2009-2011 saw the most high-staks competition in the international fighter aircraft export market that is likely to be seen for the foreseeable future. Both Brazil and India were conducting fighter tenders that were going to involve very large numbers of aircraft. These fighters would not only be purchased direct from the OEMs, but would also be turned out on production lines established in the customer nations.
Brazil ended up procuring the Saab JAS-39E Gripen aircraft in 2014 and series-production of the aircraft takes place today at the Embraer factory at Gavião Peixoto in São Paulo state. India, having a history of cooperation with Dassault and not wanting to source any more of its air force assets from Russia, selected the Rafale two years earlier. Three years later in 2015 purchased 36 of the aircraft direct from the production line in Bordeaux.
To date, there has been no assembly line for the Rafale established in India. Creating a local production capacity was the intent of the original tender from back in the early 2000s, but the two sides have never been able to come to terms. Dassault indicates that they are still interested in more sales to India and eventually creating an in-country assembly line.
The Indian Navy more recently announced that it will add to the Dassault order book by purchasing 26 of the aircraft for its carrier air wing. This acquisition will be comprised of 22 of the single-seat Rafale M carrier-capable fighter and 4 two-seat Rafale B that are not carrier-capable but will be instead used as trainer models.
The 26 Rafale M aircraft are being procured, are officially at least, only as a gap-filler until the day arrives that the indigenous Indian-developed indigenous Twin Engine Deck-Based Fighter (TEDBF) is received and placed into service.
At present, the Indian Navy operates two aircraft carriers— the INS Vikramaditya procured originally from Russia as the Gorshkov, and the indigenously built INS Vikrant, which was commissioned into service in September 2022. Both ships operate the Mikoyan MIG-29K/KUB aircraft until the Rafale-M comes online.
Why Was Dassault Rafale Production Rate So Low For So Long
The Dassault Rafale, for all the capability of its design, has been very slow to gain any traction in the export market. For that reason, the production for the aircraft had been stuck at an almost anemic output rate for decades and was almost negligible just prior to the Indian decision in 2015 to procure 36 jets.
Up to that point, said a former French Air Force senior officer, “production rates for the Rafale were only 1.3 aircraft per month. This sounds absurdly low, but the orders were not there, and this was the minimal level that the program could ‘dial back’ to without it just collapsing completely.”
Despite supposedly not being able to draw down any lower, the program did anyway. Within two years production was at 1.1 aircraft per month with a “gap” of no production at all in August.
The story is somewhat different today. Greece, Croatia, Serbia, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Serbia and others are all in various states of acquisition of the aircraft. Suddenly the Dassault order book is overflowing—“like a long soaking rain after a long drought,” said one French aerospace export who spoke to 19FortyFive.
A Renaissance in Dassault Rafale Fighter Production
Earlier this month, the CEO of Dassault Eric Trappier, spoke at a press conference to review the corporation’s annual results from the previous year, as well as responded to questions from the assembled press corps.
The summation of what he had to say regarding Rafale future production is:
-Today Rafale production has risen to two aircraft per month, but it is going to rise very quickly to three. Dassault has no problems having enough real estate and room to add more production line space and facilities are not an issue.
-But increasing the pace of production is still difficult because bringing new skilled personnel on-board means they must compete with the commercial sector. Dassault hired 2000 people in the last year or so and has encountered some difficulties finding enough skilled labor, but as he says “we can manage.”
-The greater problem—and this stretches back some time in the past – is in the supply chain. Some of the suppliers for the Rafale work for other industries and they sometimes cannot find the financing to ramp up production. Dassault must therefore monitor their supply chain for any potential disruptions and find ways to assist these suppliers as needed. Sometimes this means that Dassault “lends” them some engineers to go work inside of the suppliers’ factories to help them along.
So, this is the main issue for achieving a production tempo of 3-4 aircraft per month, he explained. It is possible to reach these numbers, but to do so you need the entire supply chain to rise to a comparable level of output. It is, however, a bit difficult for some of these suppliers to actually reach that production rate. “If I have all the parts delivered on time I can assemble 3, 4 or even 5 per month—but it is the question of getting all of those bits to the factory on time that is the complicating factor.”
The problem, as he concluded on this subject is not with Dassault, but it is upstream in the process with these suppliers. But Trappier was not looking to place blame and he did not paint a “bad guys are suppliers and we are the good guys” scenario. He just said that this is a timeline issue, and that Dassault are dealing with it.
As if on cue, French President Emmanuel Macron announced on 18 March there would be two new infrastructure projects to accommodate two additional Rafale squadrons – all part of a broader military modernization initiative. The projects will center on the expansion of the Luxeuil-Saint-Sauveur aerodrome in Eastern France, which will now become a nuclear base again and will host 40 new Rafale F5 aircraft, also ordered by Macron as part of this new expansion of the nuclear force.
By 2035, the number of personnel at the Luxeuil facility will nearly double to some 2,000 military and civilian staff. This modernization Initiative, which is supported by a €1.5 billion investment, will reinstate Luxeuil’s former role as part of the French nuclear deterrent. It will also become the first airbase to host the next-generation Rafale F5 variant of the fighter.
“The [French] Air Force will benefit from more Rafale orders. This is imperative in the current context. It is also a natural choice to integrate the air force’s efforts with regard to Ukraine and the transfer of our Mirage [2000-5],” Macron stated. “We will increase and accelerate Rafale orders. In this context, not only will the Luxeuil Air Base remain, but it will grow in an unprecedented way and regain its full place in France’s nuclear deterrent.”
Should the sales of the aircraft continue at a brisk pace then there will eventually be the need for more production capacity. No one is saying anything more specific and Dassault is notoriously close-mouthed about their future plans, but the smart money is there being a second production line somewhere in the world before too very long.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
