A look at Russia’s size and military history might lead one to assume its land Army massively outnumbers the Ukrainian military instantly. Yet the difference is not as stark or alarming as one might initially suspect.
900,000 Russians Dead or Wounded in War for Ukraine
Russia operates roughly 1.3 million active-duty soldiers, and Ukraine operates with a sizeable 900,000, according to GlobalFirepower.com. However, Ukraine is stated to support as many as 1.2 million reserves, much less than Russia’s 2 million reserves.
The numbers show that Russia outnumbers Ukraine, but Ukraine also operates as a sizable force, much more significant than some may have anticipated. There are also intangibles related to this equation, such as a “will to fight,” something the Ukrainians have demonstrated intensely.
This morale may not be matched on the Russian side, as the invading force has battled morale problems commencing with the start of the war.
With the war in its third year, many are likely to wonder how long each side can continue to sustain casualties and fight. Many independent public estimates report that as many as 900,000 Russians have been killed or severely wounded during the war in Ukraine.
This casualty figure is simply a massive number, and it suggests that more than one-half of its active-duty force has been killed or injured in the Ukraine war. The impact on Russian morale and its population and economy are likely heavily impacted already.
The question this raises is whether there is a limit or a breaking point at which Russia would have no choice but to stop fighting. Putin has a firm grip on power, yet thousands of continued casualties without victory or resolution in the war are likely to challenge or threaten the status quo to some extent.
Added to this complexity is the reality that, despite the massive Russian sacrifice in terms of lives, the war essentially remains a stalemate with no clear victor emerging.
Morale Problem
The Russian Army likely still suffers from a morale problem, meaning many Russian soldiers may be reluctant to fight and simply have no interest in killing Ukrainians, most of whom share common ethnic ties with Russians.
Early in the war, there were countless anecdotal reports of Russians simply “taking off” and abandoning their military vehicles or fighting positions and refusing to fight. Russian morale problems have likely continued and even worsened as the war has persisted and casualty figures continued to mount. Will there be a point at which Putin can no longer recruit and send young soldiers to die in Ukraine?
MiG-25 Russian Fighter-Bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Could there come a point at which Russian public opinion and opposition to the war grows to a point such that Putin feels less secure in his hold on power?
The free flow of information is greatly compromised in Russia, so it is not clear what Russians know or understand about the war and the extent of the casualties, yet doubts have to start emerging when hundreds of thousands of young Russians keep dying and the war continues.
Has Russia already gone through massive amounts of its 2-million strong reserve force? With Russian casualties hitting 900,000 it would seem quite likely. It is even possible Putin has had to reach well beyond his reserves to require young men to fight as the war continues.
What the casualty rate does is not only take an indescribable human toll, but it also puts pressure on Putin to resolve the conflict in some way or at least agree to a ceasefire.
Unless, of course, Putin believes Russia will ultimately prevail and prefers eventual victory to any other alternative regardless of the cost to Russians.
About the Author: Kris Osborn
Kris Osborn is Military Technology Editor of 19FortyFive and the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
